LIB
Liberty 7 at Old Dominion 21
ODU2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
LIB · Drive 1MISSED FG · 9 plays · 16 yds
Q1 14:50
Riley Callaghan kickoff for 62 yds , Julian Gray return for 54 yds to the ODU 43
82.8%
0.0
Q1 14:50
Evan Dickens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 44
79.1%
-3.6
Q1 14:50
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Julian Gray for 4 yds to the ODU 40
79.2%
+0.1
Q1 14:50
Evan Dickens run for 10 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST down
79.1%
-0.1
Q1 14:50
Evan Dickens run for 1 yd to the ODU 29
79.1%
0.0
Q1 14:50
Evan Dickens run for 2 yds to the ODU 27
79.1%
0.0
Q1 12:03
Timeout Liberty, clock 12:03
76.6%
-2.5
Q1 12:03
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Reese Smith
76.6%
0.0
Q1 11:56
Jay Billingsley 46 yd FG MISSED
77.2%
+0.6
ODU · Drive 2FUMBLE · 8 plays · 69 yds
Q1 11:56
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 19 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST down
80.5%
+3.3
Q1 11:56
Trequan Jones run for 8 yds to the LIB 46
81.0%
+0.6
Q1 11:56
Trequan Jones run for 4 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST down
81.6%
+0.6
Q1 11:56
Trequan Jones run for 5 yds to the LIB 37
81.9%
+0.2
Q1 11:56
Trequan Jones run for 4 yds to the LIB 33
81.9%
0.0
Q1 11:56
Trequan Jones run for 1 yd to the LIB 32 for a 1ST down
81.7%
-0.1
Q1 11:56
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 19 yds to the LIB 13 for a 1ST down
81.9%
+0.1
Q1 7:57
Trequan Jones run for 9 yds to the LIB 25 Trequan Jones fumbled, recovered by LIB Brylan Green
81.7%
-0.1
LIB · Drive 3PUNT · 13 plays · 31 yds
Q1 7:57
Michael Merdinger run for 6 yds to the LIB 31
78.5%
-3.3
Q1 7:57
Evan Dickens run for 4 yds to the LIB 35 for a 1ST down
78.5%
0.0
Q1 7:57
PENALTY LU False Start (Geth,DJ) 5 yards from LU 35 to LU 30. NO PLAY.
78.5%
0.0
Q1 7:57
Ethan Houck run for 8 yds to the LIB 38
78.5%
0.0
Q1 7:57
Evan Dickens run for 5 yds to the LIB 43
77.7%
-0.8
Q1 7:57
Michael Merdinger run for 12 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST down
77.5%
-0.2
Q1 7:57
Evan Dickens run for 10 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST down
76.7%
-0.8
Q1 7:57
Evan Dickens run for 3 yds to the ODU 32
76.6%
-0.1
Q1 7:57
No Huddle-Shotgun Gray,Julian rush left for 5 yards gain to the ODU27 (Easterly,Mario; Frink,Zion) PENALTY LU Holding (Geth,DJ) 10 yards from ODU32 to ODU42. NO PLAY.
76.6%
0.0
Q1 7:57
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Darius Copeland
76.6%
0.0
Q1 7:57
No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Caden rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ODU35 (Alisandro,Botros; Naotala,Seth) PENALTY LU Illegal Shift 5 yards from ODU42 to ODU47. NO PLAY.
76.6%
0.0
Q1 7:57
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the ODU 44
76.7%
+0.1
Q1 1:45
Max Morgan punt for 44 yds for a touchback
75.4%
-1.3
ODU · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · 26 yds
Q1 1:45
Liberty Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the ODU 39 for a 1ST down
78.3%
+2.9
Q1 1:45
Devin Roche run for 3 yds to the ODU 42
78.8%
+0.4
Q1 0:00
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 4 yds to the ODU 46
78.6%
-0.1
Q2 15:00
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Tre' Brown III
78.4%
-0.2
Q2 14:43
Ian Brandt punt for 50 yds
78.3%
-0.2
LIB · Drive 5FUMBLE · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q2 14:43
Evan Dickens run for 1 yd to the LIB 5
76.6%
-1.7
Q2 13:58
Evan Dickens run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 3 Evan Dickens fumbled, recovered by ODU Ricardo Williams Jr.
76.6%
0.0
ODU · Drive 6FUMBLE · 3 plays · 1 yds
Q2 13:58
Colton Joseph run for no gain to the LIB 3
79.6%
+2.9
Q2 13:58
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Ja'Cory Thomas
79.6%
0.0
Q2 13:15
Colton Joseph pass complete to Maurki James for 1 yd Maurki James fumbled, recovered by LIB Bryce Dixon
79.4%
-0.2
LIB · Drive 7PUNT · 7 plays · 6 yds
Q2 13:15
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the LIB 8
76.6%
-2.8
Q2 13:15
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the LIB 11
76.6%
0.0
Q2 13:15
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Darius Copeland for 2 yds to the LIB 13 for a 1ST down
76.6%
0.0
Q2 13:15
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Reese Smith for no gain to the LIB 13
76.6%
0.0
Q2 13:15
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the LIB 16
76.6%
0.0
Q2 13:15
Michael Merdinger sacked by Kris Trinidad for a loss of 8 yards to the LIB 8
76.6%
0.0
Q2 9:28
Max Morgan punt for 61 yds
76.6%
0.0
ODU · Drive 8TD · 6 plays · 69 yds
Q2 9:28
Colton Joseph run for 4 yds to the ODU 35
78.1%
+1.5
Q2 9:28
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 20 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST down
78.1%
0.0
Q2 9:28
Colton Joseph pass incomplete
79.3%
+1.3
Q2 9:28
Colton Joseph run for 23 yds to the LIB 22 for a 1ST down
79.3%
0.0
Q2 7:34
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
88.4%
+9.1
Q2 7:34
PENALTY LU Offside (Harmon,Damond) 2 yards from LU 03 to LU 01. NO PLAY.
88.4%
0.0
LIB · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q2 7:34
Nathanial Eichner kickoff for 32 yds , Ethan Crisp return for no gain to the LIB 33
87.9%
-0.5
Q2 7:34
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 35
87.9%
0.0
Q2 7:34
Caden Williams run for 1 yd to the LIB 36
87.9%
0.0
Q2 7:34
Michael Merdinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 34
87.9%
0.0
Q2 7:34
PENALTY LU Delay Of Game 5 yards from LU 34 to LU 29. NO PLAY.
87.9%
0.0
Q2 5:19
Max Morgan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Devin Roche at the ODU 22
87.9%
0.0
ODU · Drive 10TD · 6 plays · 78 yds
Q2 5:19
Trequan Jones run for 9 yds to the LIB 39
88.4%
+0.4
Q2 5:19
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 8 yds to the LIB 31 for a 1ST down
88.4%
+0.1
Q2 5:19
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 41 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST down
87.9%
-0.5
Q2 5:19
PENALTY ODU Personal Foul (Johnson,TJ) 11 yard from ODU22 to ODU11. NO PLAY.
87.9%
0.0
Q2 4:07
Timeout Liberty, clock 04:07
88.2%
+0.3
Q2 4:01
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 31 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
96.4%
+8.2
LIB · Drive 11INT · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q2 3:54
Nathanial Eichner kickoff for 44 yds , A'Khori Jones return for 14 yds to the LIB 35
96.3%
0.0
Q2 3:54
PENALTY LU Delay Of Game 5 yards from LU 35 to LU 30. NO PLAY.
93.8%
-2.5
Q2 3:54
Ethan Houck run for 2 yds to the LIB 32
93.8%
0.0
Q2 3:16
Ethan Houck pass intercepted Jeremy Mack Jr. return for no gain to the LIB 43
93.8%
0.0
ODU · Drive 12FUMBLE · 9 plays · 35 yds
Q2 3:16
Colton Joseph run for 13 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST down
96.5%
+2.7
Q2 3:16
Colton Joseph run for 18 yds to the LIB 12 for a 1ST down
96.5%
0.0
Q2 3:16
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 7 yds to the LIB 5
96.5%
0.0
Q2 3:16
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 1 yd to the LIB 4
96.5%
0.0
Q2 3:16
Colton Joseph run for 2 yds to the LIB 2 for a 1ST down
96.5%
0.0
Q2 3:16
Colton Joseph pass complete to Jailen Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 3
96.5%
0.0
Q2 3:16
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 2 yds to the LIB 1
96.5%
0.0
Q2 0:29
Timeout Old Dominion, clock 00:29
96.3%
-0.2
Q2 0:20
Colton Joseph run for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 8 Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by LIB Dexter Ricks Jr.
96.2%
-0.2
LIB · Drive 13END OF HALF · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q2 0:20
M. Merdinger takes a knee
93.7%
-2.5
Q2 0:19
Timeout Old Dominion, clock 00:19
93.7%
0.0
Q2 0:19
M. Merdinger takes a knee
93.7%
0.0
Q2 0:17
Timeout Old Dominion, clock 00:17
93.7%
0.0
Q2 0:00
M. Merdinger takes a knee
93.5%
-0.2
ODU · Drive 14PUNT · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q3 14:55
Max Morgan kickoff for 65 yds , Maurki James return for 20 yds to the ODU 20
94.6%
+1.2
Q3 14:55
Trequan Jones run for 6 yds to the ODU 26
96.6%
+2.0
Q3 14:55
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 7 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST down
96.6%
0.0
Q3 14:55
Trequan Jones run for 6 yds to the ODU 39
96.6%
0.0
Q3 14:55
Trequan Jones run for 2 yds to the ODU 41
96.6%
0.0
Q3 14:55
Trequan Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 38
96.6%
0.0
Q3 12:18
Ian Brandt punt for 45 yds , Reese Smith returns for no gain to the LIB 17
96.8%
+0.1
LIB · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q3 12:18
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.
94.5%
-2.2
Q3 12:18
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 19
94.5%
0.0
Q3 12:18
PENALTY LU False Start (Engbers,Joep) 5 yards from LU 19 to LU 14. NO PLAY.
94.5%
0.0
Q3 12:18
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Jamari Person
94.5%
0.0
Q3 11:11
Max Morgan punt for 50 yds , Devin Roche returns for 12 yds to the ODU 48
94.3%
-0.2
ODU · Drive 16INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q3 10:56
Colton Joseph pass intercepted A'Khori Jones return for 28 yds to the LIB 36
96.7%
+2.4
LIB · Drive 17TD · 5 plays · 64 yds
Q3 10:56
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 53 yds to the ODU 11 for a 1ST down
94.6%
-2.1
Q3 10:56
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the ODU 7
94.2%
-0.4
Q3 10:56
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the ODU 4
94.2%
0.0
Q3 9:11
Julian Gray run for 4 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
84.5%
-9.6
Q3 9:03
Max Morgan kickoff for 65 yds , Maurki James return for 29 yds to the ODU 36 Old Dominion Penalty, Illegal Block (9 Yards) to the ODU 9
94.6%
+10.0
ODU · Drive 18PUNT · 8 plays · 47 yds
Q3 9:03
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 9 yds to the ODU 18
88.5%
-6.1
Q3 9:03
No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass incomplete short right thrown to ODU25 PENALTY ODU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Joyce,Ryan) 5 yards from ODU18 to ODU13. NO PLAY.
88.5%
0.0
Q3 9:03
Colton Joseph run for 22 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST down
88.5%
0.0
Q3 9:03
Devin Roche run for 12 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST down
88.5%
0.0
Q3 9:03
Colton Joseph run for 6 yds to the LIB 47
88.8%
+0.3
Q3 9:03
Devin Roche run for 3 yds to the LIB 44
88.8%
0.0
Q3 9:03
Devin Roche run for no gain to the LIB 44
88.7%
-0.1
Q3 5:43
Ian Brandt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Reese Smith at the LIB 8
88.8%
+0.1
LIB · Drive 19PUNT · 6 plays · 1 yds
Q3 5:43
Caden Williams run for 11 yds to the LIB 19 for a 1ST down
85.8%
-3.0
Q3 5:43
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 21
85.8%
0.0
Q3 5:43
Michael Merdinger sacked by Fred Giles for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 14
85.8%
0.0
Q3 5:43
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Jamari Person
85.8%
0.0
Q3 5:43
PENALTY LU False Start (Jones,A'Khori) 5 yards from LU 14 to LU 09. NO PLAY.
85.8%
0.0
Q3 3:46
Max Morgan punt for 41 yds
86.2%
+0.4
ODU · Drive 20MISSED FG · 8 plays · 16 yds
Q3 3:46
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Tre' Brown III
88.4%
+2.2
Q3 3:46
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 4 yds to the LIB 46
88.4%
0.0
Q3 3:46
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 7 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST down
88.3%
-0.1
Q3 3:46
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 5 yds to the LIB 34
88.6%
+0.3
Q3 3:46
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
88.6%
0.0
Q3 3:46
Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
88.5%
-0.1
Q3 2:01
Timeout Old Dominion, clock 02:01
89.2%
+0.7
Q3 1:55
Riley Callaghan 52 yd FG MISSED
89.2%
0.0
LIB · Drive 21DOWNS · 6 plays · 22 yds
Q3 1:55
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the LIB 40
85.6%
-3.6
Q3 1:55
Caden Williams run for 7 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST down
85.6%
0.0
Q3 1:55
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the ODU 47
85.5%
-0.2
Q3 1:55
Julian Gray run for no gain to the ODU 47
85.0%
-0.5
Q4 15:00
Michael Merdinger run for 2 yds to the ODU 45
86.3%
+1.2
Q4 13:57
Ethan Houck run for 1 yd to the ODU 44
86.1%
-0.1
ODU · Drive 22TD · 2 plays · 56 yds
Q4 13:57
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 1 yd to the ODU 45
90.1%
+3.9
Q4 13:17
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 55 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
97.5%
+7.4
LIB · Drive 23PUNT · 7 plays · 15 yds
Q4 13:17
Riley Callaghan kickoff for 64 yds
97.5%
0.0
Q4 13:17
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the LIB 31
94.9%
-2.6
Q4 13:17
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the LIB 35 for a 1ST down
94.9%
0.0
Q4 13:17
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the LIB 38
94.9%
0.0
Q4 13:17
Michael Merdinger sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the LIB 32
94.9%
0.0
Q4 13:17
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Julian Gray for 8 yds to the LIB 40
94.9%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Max Morgan punt for 45 yds , Devin Roche returns for 8 yds to the ODU 23
95.0%
+0.1
ODU · Drive 24MISSED FG · 14 plays · 62 yds
Q4 10:09
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Johnson for no gain to the ODU 23
97.5%
+2.5
Q4 10:09
Trequan Jones run for 21 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Colton Joseph run for 3 yds to the ODU 47
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Ja'Cory Thomas
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 14 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Trequan Jones run for 5 yds to the LIB 34
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Old Dominion Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Colton Joseph) to the LIB 45
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 14 yds to the LIB 31
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Colton Joseph run for 3 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass incomplete short middle to Abdul-Rahim Gladding,Na'eem thrown to LU 12, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LU Pass Interference (Bodnar,Christian) 13 yards from LU 28 to LU 15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Ja'Cory Thomas
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Maurki James run for 3 yds to the LIB 12
97.5%
0.0
Q4 10:09
Colton Joseph sacked by Eli Hall for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 15
97.5%
0.0
Q4 4:33
Riley Callaghan 32 yd FG MISSED
97.8%
+2.8
LIB · Drive 25FUMBLE · 3 plays · 23 yds
Q4 4:37
Timeout Liberty, clock 04:37
94.9%
-2.6
Q4 4:33
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 10 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST down
94.9%
-2.8
Q4 4:03
Caden Williams run for 13 yds to the LIB 43 Caden Williams fumbled, recovered by ODU Lucas Struck
94.9%
0.0
ODU · Drive 26END OF GAME · 8 plays · 24 yds
Q4 4:03
Devin Roche run for 6 yds to the LIB 37
97.8%
+2.9
Q4 4:03
Colton Joseph run for 3 yds to the LIB 34
97.8%
0.0
Q4 4:03
Trequan Jones run for 5 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST down
97.8%
0.0
Q4 4:03
Trequan Jones run for 4 yds to the LIB 25
97.8%
0.0
Q4 4:03
Trequan Jones run for 3 yds to the LIB 22
97.8%
0.0
Q4 1:03
Timeout Liberty, clock 01:03
98.0%
+0.1
Q4 1:03
Devin Roche run for 4 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST down
98.0%
0.0
Q4 0:00
C. Joseph takes a knee
98.0%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:03
Max Morgan kickoff for 65 yds , Maurki James return for 29 yds to the ODU 36 Old Dominion Penalty, Illegal Block (9 Yards) to the ODU 9
+10
TD · Q3 9:11
Julian Gray run for 4 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 7:34
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
+9.1