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UNC

North Carolina 19 at NC State 42

NCSU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:38 · (11:45) No Huddle #82 P.Douglas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NCSU36 (#2 A.Simpson; #91 L.Jackson), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense+3.7Pregame prior+17.0Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:26: (03:26) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:26 #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann) — NCSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:03: (13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete deep right to #1 J.Shipp caught at NCSU00, for 20 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:03, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett) — UNC win probability +5.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:12: (07:13) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:12 #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann) — NCSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:16: (03:19) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 03:16 — UNC win probability +3.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:52: (14:59) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution declined UNC Offside declined #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann) — NCSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:05NCSU 4th & 2 at UNC 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:48UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:38NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:49UNC 4th & 8 at NCSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:53NCSU 4th & 1 at UNC 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:53UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:35NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:33UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:07NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 48, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:16UNC 4th & 9 at NCSU 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:42NCSU 4th & 2 at UNC 34, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:10NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:26NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:03UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:12NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:52NCSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:25UNC Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4674% → 75%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NCSU30 (#92 C.Mims)Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
74.1%
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #6 W.Grimes caught at NCSU44, for 18 yards to the NCSU48 (#29 M.Allen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
74.1%
(14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NCSU47 (#29 M.Allen; #31 W.Hardy)Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+5
73.9%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC48 (#5 G.Gibson; #9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
73.9%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #3 H.Smothers caught at NCSU47, for 4 yards to the UNC44 (#29 M.Allen; #9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+4
73.8%
(12:10) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNC40 (#4 M.Gbayor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
73.9%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC39 (#2 A.Simpson; #40 T.Thompson)Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
73.8%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #9 T.Anderson thrown to UNC35 broken up by #1 T.DixonSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+9
73.6%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush left for 9 yards gain to the UNC30 (#7 K.House), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
73.8%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete deep right to #5 N.Rogers thrown to UNC00 broken up by #29 M.Allen PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (#29 M.Allen) 15 yards from UNC30 to UNC15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.8%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #9 T.Anderson thrown to UNC01 QB hurried by #7 K.HouseSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
75.1%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #6 W.Grimes caught at UNC15, for 15 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:10, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1326% → 25%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
74.5%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNC21 (#44 B.Cleveland; #1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
74.7%
(09:28) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #9 J.Green thrown to NCSU46 broken up by #6 D.MarshallSimilar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+9
74.9%
(09:21) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC29, for 9 yards to the UNC30 QB hurried by #8 C.Slone (#6 D.Marshall), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
74.9%
(08:54) #96 T.Maginness punt 46 yards to the NCSU24 fair catch by #9 T.Anderson at NCSU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:1475% → 80%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
74.8%
(08:46) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush right for 10 yards gain to the NCSU34 (#21 K.Cost), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Face Mask (#21 K.Cost) 15 yards from NCSU34 to NCSU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
75.3%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush left for 12 yards gain to the UNC39 (#21 K.Cost), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
75.4%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC35 (#2 A.Simpson)Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
75.5%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 J.Joly caught at UNC31, for 6 yards to the UNC29 (#12 G.Smith III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
75.6%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC25 (#6 D.Robinson)Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
75.7%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC21 (#6 D.Robinson; #40 T.Thompson)Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
75.6%
(05:29) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush left for 4 yards gain to the UNC17 (#4 M.Gbayor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
75.9%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC10 (#94 I.Johnson)Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
76.0%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #5 N.Rogers thrown to UNC08Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+3
75.8%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #3 H.Smothers caught at UNC07, for 3 yards to the UNC07 (#1 T.Dixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.2%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #87 D.Daniels thrown to UNC00Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
79.8%
(03:26) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:26 #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:0722% → 27%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
78.5%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.June rush left for 4 yards gain to the UNC24 (#15 A.Richardson; #1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
78.6%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC21, for 7 yards to the UNC31 QB hurried by #15 A.Richardson (#1 C.Fordham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
78.3%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC33 (#8 C.Slone; #1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+15
78.4%
(01:40) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short middle to #12 D.June thrown to UNC47 QB hurried by #8 C.Slone PENALTY NCSU Roughing The Passer (#8 C.Slone) 15 yards from UNC33 to UNC48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
78.2%
(01:32) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #84 S.Easter caught at NCSU37, for 15 yards to the NCSU37 QB hurried by #52 K.Payne (#19 T.Teasdell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
78.1%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NCSU32 (#15 A.Richardson; #13 T.Price) PENALTY UNC Illegal Formation 5 yards from NCSU37 to NCSU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
78.7%
(00:30) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 0 yards to the NCSU42 (#13 T.Price)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+10
78.7%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush left for 10 yards gain to the NCSU32 (#33 K.Soares, Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+9
78.3%
(14:14) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at NCSU26, for 9 yards to the NCSU23 (#6 D.Marshall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
78.1%
(13:49) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NCSU20 (#54 S.Harsh)Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
72.8%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete deep right to #1 J.Shipp caught at NCSU00, for 20 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:03, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4876% → 83%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.5%
(13:03) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #3 H.Smothers thrown to NCSU23 QB hurried by #7 K.HouseSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.4%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #5 N.Rogers caught at NCSU30, for 6 yards to the NCSU31 (#18 J.Patterson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
75.2%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #7 J.Joly caught at NCSU34, for 3 yards to the NCSU34 (#5 G.Gibson)Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
74.9%
(11:45) No Huddle #82 P.Douglas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NCSU36 (#2 A.Simpson; #91 L.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
76.1%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush left for 19 yards gain to the UNC45 (#24 J.Butts; #18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
77.0%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNC37 (#54 T.Hickman-Collins)Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+24
77.2%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short middle to #5 N.Rogers caught at UNC22, for 24 yards to the UNC13 (#24 J.Butts; #18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
77.4%
(08:52) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush right for 0 yards to the UNC13 (#40 T.Thompson)Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+10
78.1%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #6 W.Grimes caught at UNC08, for 10 yards to the UNC03 (#21 K.Cost; #29 M.Allen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.2%
(07:33) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC01 (#94 I.Johnson; #92 C.Mims)Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.3%
(07:13) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:12 #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:1618% → 19%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.7%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC26 (#26 A.Brown Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
81.9%
(06:36) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #28 B.Hall caught at UNC26, for 0 yards to the UNC26 (#15 A.Richardson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
82.4%
PENALTY UNC Delay Of Game (#7 G.Lopez) 5 yards from UNC26 to UNC21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+17
82.6%
(05:36) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC35, for 17 yards to the UNC38 (#26 A.Brown Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.9%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC41 (#15 A.Richardson)Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
82.0%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UNC40 (#44 B.Cleveland)Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+13
82.5%
(03:49) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC49, for 13 yards to the NCSU47 (#22 J.Vick; #6 D.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
81.8%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Shipp thrown to NCSU32Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
82.2%
(03:19) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep left to #1 J.Shipp thrown to NCSU01 PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (#26 A.Brown Jr.) 15 yards from NCSU47 to NCSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
81.1%
(03:12) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 9 yards to the NCSU41 (#1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+11
83.2%
(02:26) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at NCSU30, for 11 yards to the NCSU30 (#6 D.Marshall)Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
82.3%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep middle to #8 K.Paysour thrown to NCSU00 QB hurried by #8 C.SloneSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+49
80.8%
(01:49) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 01:49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 1:2483% → 87%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.5%
(01:47) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NCSU29 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
82.6%
(01:24) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 J.Joly caught at NCSU48, for 19 yards to the NCSU48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
83.6%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 J.Joly caught at NCSU49, for 1 yard to the NCSU49 (#29 M.Allen), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
83.5%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #9 T.Anderson thrown to UNC41 broken up by #29 M.AllenSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+8
82.7%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #4 J.Scott caught at NCSU45, for 8 yards to the UNC43 (#7 K.House), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
83.5%
(00:57) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC40 (#54 T.Hickman-Collins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.7%
(00:53) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Joly thrown to UNC36Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
83.6%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UNC30 (#24 J.Butts), 1ST DOWN. #72 S.Sowells Jr. injured on the playSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+29
84.0%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep left to #9 T.Anderson caught at UNC05, for 29 yards to the UNC01 QB hurried by #12 G.Smith III (#24 J.Butts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.5%
(00:25) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC01 (#2 A.Simpson; #92 C.Mims)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.2%
(00:21) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #7 J.Joly caught at UNC01, for 1 yard to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18 #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8END OF HALF
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0912% → 12%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.6%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC25, for 12 yards to the UNC37 (#6 D.Marshall), out of bounds PENALTY UNC Holding (#66 J.Hall) 10 yards from UNC25 to UNC15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-1
87.7%
(00:09) Kneel down by #7 G.Lopez at UNC14 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:5911% → 11%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.6%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC28, for 10 yards to the UNC35 (#1 C.Fordham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.3%
(14:32) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Shipp thrown to NCSU49Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
87.9%
(14:26) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC42, for 7 yards to the UNC42 (#26 A.Brown Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-14
87.4%
(13:44) #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 14 yards loss to the UNC28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+9
89.0%
(13:03) #96 T.Maginness punt 46 yards to the NCSU26 #9 T.Anderson return 9 yards to the NCSU35 (#4 M.Gbayor; #31 W.Hardy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:1091% → 91%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.8%
(12:52) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush right for 5 yards gain to the NCSU40 (#94 I.Johnson)Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-4
91.8%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey sacked for loss of 8 yards to the NCSU32 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude, #6 D.Robinson)Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+4
91.2%
(11:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #3 H.Smothers caught at NCSU31, for 4 yards to the NCSU36 (#90 X.Lewis)Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+11
91.2%
(10:46) #98 C.Noonkester punt 47 yards to the UNC17 #31 W.Hardy return 11 yards to the UNC28 (#82 P.Douglas) PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#21 K.Cost) 14 yards from UNC28 to UNC14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5611% → 9%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
89.5%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep left to #1 J.Shipp thrown to UNC36Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-2
89.8%
(10:25) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UNC12 (#13 T.Price). #7 G.Lopez injured on the playSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+7
90.8%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC15, for 7 yards to the UNC19 (#22 J.Vick; #1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
90.9%
(09:38) #96 T.Maginness punt 36 yards to the NCSU45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1793% → 93%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
93.0%
(09:29) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NCSU46 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
93.0%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #3 H.Smothers caught at NCSU46, for 2 yards to the NCSU48 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude; #1 T.Dixon), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
92.9%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #8 K.Jackson thrown to UNC40 broken up by #21 K.CostSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
92.5%
(08:18) #98 C.Noonkester punt 41 yards to the UNC11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:429% → 12%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
91.4%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #81 C.Cox caught at UNC12, for 2 yards to the UNC13 (#22 J.Vick)Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
91.8%
(07:21) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #12 D.June thrown to UNC16 broken up by #1 C.Fordham QB hurried by #15 A.RichardsonSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+18
91.9%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson rush middle for 18 yards gain to the UNC31 (#41 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
91.1%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson rush middle for 14 yards gain to the UNC45 (#22 J.Vick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
91.7%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #0 A.Taylor caught at UNC50, for 15 yards to the NCSU40 QB hurried by #8 C.Slone (#26 A.Brown Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.4%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Shipp thrown to NCSU27 broken up by #7 B.Nelson, IISimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
91.5%
(05:30) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson rush left for 3 yards gain to the NCSU37 (#22 J.Vick), out of bounds PENALTY NCSU Personal Foul (#22 J.Vick) 15 yards from NCSU37 to NCSU22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
90.8%
(05:06) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at NCSU16, for 10 yards to the NCSU12 (#6 D.Marshall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.9%
(04:26) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #37 D.Gause thrown to NCSU05 broken up by #26 A.Brown Jr.Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
90.9%
(04:21) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #28 B.Hall caught at NCSU15, for 1 yard to the NCSU11 (#1 C.Fordham; #54 S.Harsh)Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
92.1%
(03:24) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #0 A.Taylor thrown to NCSU00 broken up by #22 J.Vick QB hurried by #54 S.HarshSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
88.3%
(03:19) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 03:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1893% → 99%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.7%
(03:16) Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NCSU31 (#7 K.House)Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
92.9%
(02:43) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #5 N.Rogers thrown to NCSU34Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
92.8%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #12 T.Hoffmann caught at NCSU41, for 10 yards to the NCSU41 (#18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
93.6%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NCSU47 (#29 M.Allen) PENALTY UNC Face Mask 15 yards from NCSU47 to UNC38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
93.7%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC34 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+10
93.9%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #12 T.Hoffmann thrown to UNC22 broken up by #21 K.Cost PENALTY UNC Holding (#21 K.Cost) 10 yards from UNC34 to UNC24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
93.9%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNC25 (#8 S.Vilbert)Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+10
94.2%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #6 W.Grimes caught at UNC20, for 10 yards to the UNC15 (#29 M.Allen)Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
98.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution declined UNC Offside declined #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:062% → 2%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.2%
(14:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC25, for 7 yards to the UNC32 (#1 C.Fordham), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
98.2%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC34, for 2 yards to the UNC34 (#15 A.Richardson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.3%
(13:56) No Huddle #37 D.Gause rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC39 (#1 C.Fordham; #19 T.Teasdell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.4%
(13:21) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #37 D.Gause thrown to UNC40Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
98.4%
(13:16) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #19 J.Johnson caught at UNC49, for 10 yards to the UNC49 (#6 D.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.4%
(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Johnson thrown to NCSU47Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
98.5%
(12:37) Shotgun #14 M.Johnson pass incomplete deep middle to #1 J.Shipp thrown to NCSU31 broken up by #1 C.FordhamSimilar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-7
98.5%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Johnson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UNC42 (#4 T.Thomas), fumble by #14 M.Johnson recovered by NCSU #54 S.Harsh at UNC42, End Of Play PENALTY UNC Holding declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 42 yds · 6:4799% → 100%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.1%
(12:26) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC40 (#92 C.Mims; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
99.1%
(11:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #9 T.Anderson caught at UNC40, for 4 yards to the UNC36 (#16 C.Bryson) PENALTY NCSU Holding (#8 K.Jackson) 10 yards from UNC40 to UNC50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 18
50
+8
99.0%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #6 W.Grimes caught at UNC46, for 8 yards to the UNC42 (#1 T.Dixon)Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+8
99.1%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #8 K.Jackson caught at UNC40, for 8 yards to the UNC34 (#15 T.Miller)Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+6
99.4%
(09:49) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC28 (#31 W.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
99.5%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 T.Hoffmann sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UNC32 (#2 A.Simpson)Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+12
99.5%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #9 T.Anderson caught at UNC25, for 12 yards to the UNC20 (#20 J.Thompson)Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
99.5%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC17 (#40 T.Thompson; #12 G.Smith III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.5%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush right for 8 yards gain to the UNC09 (#1 T.Dixon)Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+6
99.9%
(06:06) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC03 (#1 T.Dixon), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NCSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsettingSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
(05:34) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:34 #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:030% → 1%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNC43 (#1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
99.9%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Newkirk pass incomplete short right to #82 N.Leacock thrown to NCSU38 QB hurried by #54 S.HarshSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
(04:56) No Huddle #28 B.Hall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC48 (#1 C.Fordham; #2 R.Royal, III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
99.9%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Newkirk pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at NCSU42, for 10 yards to the NCSU42 (#10 J.Baly), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.9%
(03:40) Shotgun #10 A.Newkirk pass complete short right to #8 K.Paysour caught at NCSU38, for 9 yards to the NCSU33 (#16 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+9
99.9%
(03:03) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NCSU24 (#30 Z.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.9%
(02:25) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NCSU18 (#16 J.Johnson; #2 R.Royal, III)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
99.9%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Newkirk pass incomplete short right to #19 J.Johnson thrown to NCSU00 QB hurried by #30 Z.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+13
99.9%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Newkirk rush middle for 13 yards gain to the NCSU05 (#33 K.Soares, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.9%
(01:39) No Huddle #27 J.McGill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NCSU04 (#2 R.Royal, III; #42 K.Carter)Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.3%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Newkirk pass complete short right to #80 J.Owens caught at NCSU00, for 4 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:25 #10 A.Newkirk pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18Uncategorized
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.8%
(01:24) Shotgun #31 C.Fields rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC35 (#16 C.Bryson; #31 W.Hardy) PENALTY UNC UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#94 I.Johnson) 15 yards from UNC35 to UNC20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.8%
(00:51) Shotgun #31 C.Fields rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC18 (#92 C.Mims)Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
99.8%
(00:16) Shotgun #31 C.Fields rush left for 0 yards to the UNC18 (#7 K.House; #4 M.Gbayor)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:03
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete deep right to #1 J.Shipp caught at NCSU00, for 20 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:03, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett)
-5.3
TD · Q2 7:12
(07:13) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:12 #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
+5.1
TD · Q4 14:52
(14:59) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution declined UNC Offside declined #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com