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NCSU

NC State 7 at Miami 41

MIA
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:06 · (10:08) #98 C.Noonkester punt 35 yards to the UM46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense+35.7Pregame prior+6.3Score differential+29.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.8Garbage-time factor+8.3Blowout margin+17.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:13: (07:13) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 07:13 — MIA win probability +0.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:16: (11:18) #6 C.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:16 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +6.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:52: Timeout Miami, clock 09:52 — MIA win probability +3.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:33: (00:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at NCS01, for 14 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +4.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:55: (10:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep right to #9 E.Lofton caught at NCS08, for 29 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:55, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:50NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:13MIA 4th & 6 at NCSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:24NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:47MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:55NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:52NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:16MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:16NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 27, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:04NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:51MIA 4th & 7 at NCSU 20, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:15NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 38, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:06NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 19, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:19MIA 4th & 6 at NCSU 25, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 11:16MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:55MIA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:48MIA Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:18NCSU Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4917% → 17%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
83.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #8 K.Jackson caught at NCS41, for 16 yards to the NCS41, out of bounds at NCS41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
83.2%
PENALTY NCS False Start (#6 W.Grimes) 5 yards from NCS41 to NCS36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
83.2%
(14:22) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #8 K.Jackson thrown to NCS45 broken up by #13 B.FitzgeraldSimilar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+7
83.1%
(14:18) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #7 J.Joly caught at NCS34, for 7 yards to the NCS43 (#8 J.Thomas; #18 A.Blount)Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+2
82.9%
(13:41) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short middle to #8 K.Jackson caught at NCS44, for 2 yards to the NCS45 (#41 C.Smith; #13 B.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
82.8%
(12:56) #98 C.Noonkester punt 46 yards to the UM09 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at UM09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:2383% → 82%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+19
82.7%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #22 G.Pringle Jr. caught at UM14, for 19 yards to the UM28 (#21 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
82.6%
(12:12) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the UM32 (#8 C.Slone)Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
82.5%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at UM37, for 5 yards to the UM37 (#21 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+6
82.4%
(11:15) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 6 yards gain to the UM43 (#54 S.Harsh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
82.4%
(10:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #9 E.Lofton thrown to UM40Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
82.2%
(10:31) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the UM47 (#26 A.Brown Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+35
82.1%
(09:54) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #0 K.Marion caught at NCS19, for 35 yards to the NCS18 (#21 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
82.3%
(09:16) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NCS14 (#19 T.Teasdell)Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-7
82.0%
(08:45) Shotgun #11 C.Beck sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NCS21 (#92 C.Bond)Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+7
81.3%
(07:56) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #87 A.Bauman caught at NCS20, for 7 yards to the NCS14 (#22 J.Vick)Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
81.6%
(07:13) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 07:13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:4118% → 18%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.6%
(07:11) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush left for 4 yards gain to the NCS29 (#8 J.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
81.4%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Joly thrown to NCS35 QB hurried by #2 D.BrownSimilar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
81.6%
(06:34) PENALTY NCS False Start (#54 T.Andersen) 5 yards from NCS29 to NCS24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
81.7%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Jackson thrown to NCS21Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
81.9%
(06:29) #98 C.Noonkester punt 46 yards to the UM30 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at UM30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:5281% → 81%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
81.3%
(06:20) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UM38 (#54 S.Harsh)Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
81.6%
(05:45) #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep left to #10 M.Toney thrown to NCS12Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
81.3%
(05:39) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at UM43, for 7 yards to the UM45 (#7 B.Nelson, II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
81.5%
(05:03) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush left for 3 yards gain to the UM48 (#33 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
81.4%
(04:29) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #6 C.Brown caught at UM44, for 3 yards to the NCS49 fumbled by #6 C.Brown at UM47 forced by #6 D.Marshall recovered by NCS #1 C.Fordham at NCS49, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5INT TD
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4120% → 17%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
80.4%
(04:21) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush right for 1 yard loss to the NCS48 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-60
83.4%
(03:46) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass intercepted by #8 J.Thomas at UM40 #8 J.Thomas return 60 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:36 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1816% → 17%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.8%
(03:34) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush left for 1 yard loss to the NCS24 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.)Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
83.6%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short middle to #9 T.Anderson caught at NCS38, for 14 yards to the NCS38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.8%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush right for 5 yards gain to the NCS43 (#6 X.Lucas)Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
82.6%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #12 T.Hoffmann caught at NCS50, for 7 yards to the NCS50, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
50
0
82.4%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #12 T.Hoffmann thrown to UM31 broken up by #7 Z.PoyserSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
50
0
82.6%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass intercepted by #8 J.Thomas at UM37 QB hurried by #99 A.Moten, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1283% → 82%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
82.8%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Lofton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UM40 (#8 C.Slone; #44 B.Cleveland)Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
83.1%
(00:32) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the UM45 (#1 C.Fordham). #21 J.Johnson injured on the playSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
82.7%
(14:55) #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #3 J.Moore thrown to NCS45 broken up by #6 D.MarshallSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
82.4%
(14:52) #94 D.Joyce punt 45 yards to the NCS10 fair catch by #9 T.Anderson at NCS10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3817% → 16%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
83.2%
(14:44) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #3 H.Smothers caught at NCS08, for 6 yards to the NCS16 (#1 M.Toure; #2 D.Brown)Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-3
83.2%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush right for 3 yards loss to the NCS13 (#12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+3
83.8%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short middle to #4 J.Scott caught at NCS16, for 3 yards to the NCS16 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+8
84.0%
(12:55) #98 C.Noonkester punt 40 yards to the UM44 #10 M.Toney return 8 yards to the NCS48 (#95 J.Mann; #30 Z.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:2883% → 90%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+44
83.1%
(12:44) Shotgun #10 M.Toney pass complete deep right to #1 J.Trader caught at NCS24, for 44 yards to the NCS04 (#22 J.Vick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.2%
(12:01) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NCS01 (#44 B.Cleveland; #1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.1%
(11:18) #6 C.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:16 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1312% → 11%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
(11:14) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #3 H.Smothers caught at NCS22, for 0 yards to the NCS25 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.; #8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.7%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #12 T.Hoffmann caught at NCS24, for 2 yards to the NCS27 (#6 X.Lucas; #7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
88.8%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Joly thrown to NCS41Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
89.0%
(09:59) #98 C.Noonkester punt 50 yards to the UM23 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at UM23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:1794% → 94%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
93.5%
(09:51) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #3 J.Moore caught at UM45, for 24 yards to the UM47, out of bounds at UM47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.9%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #9 E.Lofton thrown to UM48Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
93.9%
(09:26) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the NCS48 (#1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
93.2%
(08:42) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #10 M.Toney thrown to NCS45Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+5
93.0%
PENALTY UM Delay Of Game 5 yards from NCS48 to UM47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
93.6%
(08:13) #94 D.Joyce punt 45 yards to the NCS08 fair catch by #9 T.Anderson at NCS08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:2010% → 10%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
89.7%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #44 C.Hardy caught at NCS10, for 2 yards to the NCS10 (#1 M.Toure; #3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+5
89.5%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #9 T.Anderson caught at NCS13, for 5 yards to the NCS15 (#24 E.O'Connor)Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+3
89.4%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NCS18 (#0 K.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
89.3%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush left for 3 yards loss to the NCS15 (#5 J.Scott)Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+9
89.6%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #4 J.Scott caught at NCS10, for 9 yards to the NCS24 (#13 B.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+3
89.6%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NCS27 (#3 A.Mesidor; #18 A.Blount)Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
90.0%
(03:24) #98 C.Noonkester punt 39 yards to the UM34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 1:4595% → 97%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
95.2%
(02:23) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UM41 (#33 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+8
93.6%
(02:03) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 8 yards gain to the UM49 (#90 J.Victor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
93.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NCS46 (#90 J.Victor; #92 A.Arias)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+18
93.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #0 K.Marion caught at NCS43, for 18 yards to the NCS28 (#1 C.Fordham; #19 T.Teasdell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep right to #9 E.Lofton thrown to NCS00Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
93.2%
(01:53) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #0 K.Marion caught at NCS31, for 0 yards to the NCS28 (#8 C.Slone)Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+11
93.1%
(01:10) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at NCS31, for 11 yards to the NCS17 (#22 J.Vick; #7 B.Nelson, II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
93.3%
(00:43) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 3 yards gain to the NCS14 (#1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
96.7%
(00:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at NCS01, for 14 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.9%
(00:32) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NCS27 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:4695% → 99%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
95.4%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the UM17 (#26 A.Brown Jr.)Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+12
95.5%
(14:17) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at UM23, for 12 yards to the UM29 (#1 C.Fordham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
95.7%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at UM31, for 2 yards to the UM31 (#19 T.Teasdell) PENALTY UM Holding (#70 M.Bell) 10 yards from UM29 to UM19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+4
95.5%
(13:27) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM23 (#26 A.Brown Jr.; #13 T.Price)Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+20
95.7%
(12:40) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at UM40, for 20 yards to the UM43 (#22 J.Vick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
96.2%
(12:05) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UM46 (#44 B.Cleveland; #33 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+13
96.4%
(11:22) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #22 G.Pringle Jr. caught at UM47, for 13 yards to the NCS41 (#52 C.Wallace; #26 A.Brown Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
96.5%
(10:43) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 12 yards gain to the NCS29 (#52 C.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.4%
(10:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep right to #9 E.Lofton caught at NCS08, for 29 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:55, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
(09:53) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush left for 0 yards to the NCS25 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
(09:17) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #5 N.Rogers thrown to NCS30. #79 K.Smith injured on the playSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
(09:16) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #5 N.Rogers thrown to NCS43 broken up by #8 J.ThomasSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
(09:10) #98 C.Noonkester punt 52 yards to the UM23 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at UM23 PENALTY UM Holding (#15 D.Upshaw) 10 yards from UM23 to UM13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:06100% → 100%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
99.5%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 12 yards gain to the UM25 (#22 J.Vick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.5%
(08:28) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 23 yards gain to the UM48 (#4 T.Thomas; #7 B.Nelson, II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.6%
(07:46) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NCS49 (#1 C.Fordham; #13 T.Price)Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
99.6%
(07:08) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #15 D.Upshaw caught at NCS45, for 8 yards to the NCS41 (#6 D.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.6%
(06:21) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NCS40 (#1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+17
99.6%
(05:50) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 17 yards gain to the NCS23 (#6 D.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.7%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the NCS21 (#52 C.Wallace)Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
99.7%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Toney pass incomplete short left to #22 G.Pringle Jr. thrown to NCS08Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+5
99.7%
(04:38) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at NCS07, for 21 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:35 PENALTY UM Illegal Shift 5 yards from NCS21 to NCS26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+6
99.7%
(04:32) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #87 A.Bauman caught at NCS27, for 6 yards to the NCS20 (#22 J.Vick)Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
99.7%
(03:52) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 03:51Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
(03:49) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete deep right to #6 W.Grimes thrown to UM47 broken up by #6 X.LucasSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush left for 2 yards gain to the NCS27 (#93 D.Simpson, Jr.; #41 C.Smith)Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.7%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete deep right to #6 W.Grimes thrown to UM44 PENALTY UM Pass Interference (#6 X.Lucas) 15 yards from NCS27 to NCS42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.7%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush right for 4 yards gain to the NCS46 (#41 C.Smith)Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
99.7%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush right for 1 yard gain to the NCS47, out of bounds at NCS47Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
99.7%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 0 yards (6) to the NCS47 (#12 M.Lightfoot) PENALTY NCS Personal Foul (#75 A.Carter, Jr.) 15 yards from UM47 to NCS38Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
99.8%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #4 J.Scott thrown to NCS37Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
99.8%
(01:20) #98 C.Noonkester punt 50 yards to the UM12 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at UM12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 4:19100% → 100%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.7%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the UM15 (#1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+8
99.7%
(00:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush left for 8 yards gain to the UM23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at UM20, for 2 yards to the UM25 (#26 A.Brown Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+32
99.8%
(14:34) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #3 J.Moore caught at NCS43, for 32 yards to the NCS43 (#7 B.Nelson, II), 1ST DOWN. #3 J.Moore injured on the playSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.8%
(13:55) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 15 yards gain to the NCS28 (#13 T.Price; #8 C.Slone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
99.8%
(13:11) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at NCS17, for 11 yards to the NCS17 (#7 B.Nelson, II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.8%
(12:31) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the NCS15 (#52 C.Wallace; #1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
(11:52) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at NCS11, for 15 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48, 1ST DOWN #45 B.Auburn kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.9%
(11:46) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey sacked for loss of 6 yards to the NCS19 (#3 A.Mesidor), fumble by #11 C.Bailey recovered by NCS #9 T.Anderson at NCS19, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
99.9%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #9 T.Anderson caught at NCS19, for 0 yards to the NCS19 (#19 C.Brantley)Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
99.9%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #6 W.Grimes thrown to NCS30 broken up by #6 X.LucasSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
99.9%
(10:08) #98 C.Noonkester punt 35 yards to the UM46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 0 yards to the UM46 (#1 C.Fordham)Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+25
99.9%
(09:25) Shotgun #8 E.Williams pass complete short left to #12 N.Carr caught at NCS42, for 25 yards to the NCS29 (#26 A.Brown Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.9%
(08:41) Shotgun #8 E.Williams pass complete short left to #12 N.Carr caught at NCS31, for 7 yards to the NCS22 (#44 B.Cleveland). #44 B.Cleveland injured on the playSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-3
99.9%
(08:11) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush left for 3 yards loss to the NCS25 (#2 R.Royal, III)Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
99.9%
(07:28) Shotgun #8 E.Williams pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Trader thrown to NCS16Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
99.9%
(07:19) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 07:19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:540% → 0%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
(07:17) Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush right for 1 yard gain to the NCS26 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.; #32 K.Bonner) PENALTY UM Personal Foul (#25 J.Richard) 15 yards from NCS26 to NCS41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush right for 0 yards to the NCS41 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.; #33 B.Pickett, Jr)Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #5 N.Rogers caught at NCS42, for 6 yards to the NCS47 (#28 I.Taylor)Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #9 T.Anderson caught at NCS50, for 6 yards to the UM47 (#23 D.Day), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush right for 1 yard gain to the UM46 (#36 N.Kelly)Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+28
100.0%
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #4 J.Scott caught at NCS47, for 28 yards to the UM18 (#21 J.Alderman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
99.9%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #5 N.Rogers caught at UM20, for 7 yards to the UM11 (#36 N.Kelly; #33 B.Pickett, Jr)Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+5
99.9%
PENALTY UM Delay Of Game 5 yards from UM11 to UM06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.9%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM05 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle thrown to UM00Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
PENALTY NCS False Start (#74 J.Grant) 5 yards from UM05 to UM10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
100.0%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush left for 10 yards gain to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:18 PENALTY UM Holding declined #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
100.0%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush right for 17 yards gain to the UM42 (#6 D.Marshall; #30 Z.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
100.0%
(01:57) Shotgun #16 L.Nickel pass incomplete deep left to #12 N.Carr thrown to NCS23 broken up by #7 B.Nelson, IISimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
100.0%
(01:50) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UM48 (#2 R.Royal, III)Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+11
100.0%
(01:09) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NCS41 (#10 J.Baly), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
100.0%
(00:30) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush left for 19 yards gain to the NCS22, out of bounds at NCS22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
100.0%
(00:21) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 5 yards loss to the NCS27 (#30 Z.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:16
(11:18) #6 C.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:16 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
+6.9
TD · Q2 0:33
(00:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at NCS01, for 14 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
+4.7
TD · Q2 9:52
Timeout Miami, clock 09:52
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com