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NCSU

NC State 7 at Notre Dame 36

ND
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:55 · Will Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+35.8Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:48: CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 45 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:48: Timeout Notre Dame, clock 13:48 — ND win probability +1.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: Offense has -1 timeouts left).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Noah Burnette 48 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +7.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: Offense has -8 timeouts left).
  4. TD · Q3 6:58: CJ Carr pass complete to KK Smith for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +5.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:46: CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +7.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:53NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:31NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15ND 4th & 1 at NCSU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:55NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:05ND 4th & 10 at ND 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:48NCSU 4th & 11 at ND 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:05ND 4th & 4 at ND 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:06NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51ND 4th & 3 at NCSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00ND 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:07ND 4th & 10 at ND 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:54NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:59ND 4th & 2 at ND 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.6%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:14NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:04NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 48, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:48ND 4th & 9 at NCSU 16, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−2.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:16NCSU 4th & 6 at ND 29, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:16NCSU 4th & 6 at ND 29, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:49ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:48NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:58ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:46ND Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:13ND Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:537% → 8%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
92.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-9
92.5%
CJ Bailey sacked by Boubacar Traore for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 14Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+1
92.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 15Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
92.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:5092% → 92%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+32
92.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 32 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
92.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+19
92.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 19 yds to the NCSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the NCSU 5Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
91.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NCSU 2Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:138% → 8%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
91.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
91.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
91.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:0992% → 91%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
91.7%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 1 yd to the ND 32Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+42
91.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 42 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-5
91.7%
PENALTY UND False Start (Washington,Ty) 5 yards from NCS24 to NCS29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+3
91.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+10
91.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 10 yds to the NCSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
91.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the NCSU 12Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
91.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the NCSU 7Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
91.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the NCSU 7Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 1
OPP 7
-10
91.0%
CJ Carr sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 4:209% → 14%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
90.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
90.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 1 yd to the NCSU 18Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+15
90.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 15 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.4%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
90.4%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
90.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 9 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
90.2%
Will Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
89.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
89.6%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+6
89.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
86.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 45 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3088% → 87%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
87.9%
Jadarian Price run for 20 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
88.4%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass complete short left to Fields,Malachi caught at NCS48, for 17 yards to the NCS40 (Johnson,JJ; Nelson, II,Brian), out of bounds PENALTY UND Holding (Price,Jadarian) 10 yards from UND43 to UND33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+10
87.6%
Jadarian Price run for 10 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
87.9%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
87.4%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+2
87.0%
James Rendell punt for 42 yds , Terrell Anderson returns for 2 yds to the NCSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:1415% → 16%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
85.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
85.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 20Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+21
84.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 21 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
85.0%
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+7
84.2%
Jayden Scott run for 7 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
83.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 7 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-10
83.2%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Smothers,Hollywood rush left for 1 yard gain to the UND38 (Burnham,Joshua) PENALTY NCS Holding (Peak,Jacarrius) 10 yards from UND39 to UND49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+2
83.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
83.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Hollywood SmothersSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
83.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3685% → 84%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
85.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 15Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-5
85.0%
PENALTY UND False Start (Knapp,Anthonie) 5 yards from UND15 to UND10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
84.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 16Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
84.0%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
83.9%
James Rendell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Terrell Anderson at the NCSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5418% → 17%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
82.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the NCSU 43Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-3
81.7%
CJ Bailey sacked by Elijah Hughes for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 40Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-8
82.1%
CJ Bailey sacked by Jalen Stroman for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSU 32Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
83.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10INT
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:0484% → 83%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
83.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 23 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+30
85.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 30 yds to the NCSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
85.4%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
85.4%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the NCSU 7Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-1
84.2%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 8Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 3
OPP 8
0
83.3%
CJ Carr pass intercepted, touchback. Asaad Brown Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:2218% → 25%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 22Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
81.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 4 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
81.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 11 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
80.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 1 yd to the NCSU 38Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
80.5%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+1
74.0%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the NCSU 39Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+23
74.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds , Jordan Faison returns for 23 yds to the ND 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:1870% → 77%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
69.5%
(00:25) Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete short right to Faison,Jordan thrown to UND45 PENALTY NCS Pass Interference (Vick,Jackson) 15 yards from UND30 to UND45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
71.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 20 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
73.4%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
71.3%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 3 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+2
69.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 2 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
77.0%
Noah Burnette 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4783% → 82%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
James Rendell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Wesley Grimes at the NCSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1018% → 17%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
82.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
81.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
82.1%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
83.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 5:5182% → 90%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
82.4%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the ND 15Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+15
81.8%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete deep right to Fields,Malachi thrown to UND35 PENALTY NCS Pass Interference (Marshall,Devon) 15 yards from UND15 to UND30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
82.2%
CJ Carr sacked by Travali Price for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 25Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+3
81.4%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-5
80.5%
PENALTY UND False Start (Craig,Ashton) 5 yards from UND28 to UND23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+15
80.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 15 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+3
81.1%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
82.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to KK Smith for 10 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
83.4%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete deep middle to Raridon,Eli thrown to NCS14 PENALTY NCS Pass Interference (Soares, Jr.,Kenny) 15 yards from NCS49 to NCS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
84.0%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
83.8%
Jadarian Price run for 11 yds to the NCSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
83.9%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
83.7%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the NCSU 18Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
89.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to KK Smith for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3112% → 12%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 4 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
87.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 9 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
86.8%
Hollywood Smothers pass complete to CJ Bailey for 4 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
87.7%
NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caden Fordham) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+10
88.7%
CJ Bailey run for 10 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
87.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:2390% → 98%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.2%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+24
90.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 24 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
90.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to KK Smith for 31 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
91.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 13 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:324% → 3%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
95.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 14 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-12
95.4%
CJ Bailey sacked by Boubacar Traore for a loss of 12 yards to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 22
OWN 37
+7
96.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 7 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+4
96.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 4 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 11
OWN 48
-44
96.6%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Adon Shuler return for 44 yds to the NCSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0499% → 100%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
98.8%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the NCSU 15Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-1
99.0%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
99.0%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
99.7%
Noah Burnette 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-20
99.2%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa return for 20 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.2%
NC State Penalty, Defensive Holding (CJ Bailey) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.7%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the NCSU 17Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
99.7%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+14
99.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 14 yds to the NCSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.8%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the NCSU 2Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.8%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the NCSU 2 Jadarian Price fumbled, recovered by NCSU Cian SloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22SF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:161% → 1%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
99.3%
Team SafetySimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.3%
PENALTY UND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Traore,Boubacar) 15 yards from NCS20 to NCS35. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.7%
CJ Carr run for 5 yds to the ND 23Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
99.7%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jeremiyah LoveSimilar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+17
99.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 17 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
99.8%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to KK SmithSimilar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+7
99.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 7 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
99.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 36 yds to the NCSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24INT
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
100.0%
(05:11) Shotgun Smothers,Hollywood rush left for 1 yard loss to the NCS24 (Dawson,Jared; Young,Bryce) PENALTY UND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Young,Bryce) 15 yards from NCS25 to NCS40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the NCSU 40Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
100.0%
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd to the NCSU 41Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+26
100.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 26 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the ND 33Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
100.0%
Jayden Scott run for 7 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Will Wilson run for 2 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 1
OPP 24
-5
99.9%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Hardy,Cody) 5 yards from UND24 to UND29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 6
OPP 29
-11
99.9%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Karson Hobbs return for 11 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 6
OPP 29
-11
99.9%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Karson Hobbs return for 11 yds to the ND 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
100.0%
K. Minchey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
K. Minchey takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Noah Burnette 48 yd FG GOOD
+7.1
TD · Q3 2:46
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+7
TD · Q3 6:58
CJ Carr pass complete to KK Smith for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com