NCSU
NC State 7 at Notre Dame 36
ND2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
NCSU · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q1 14:51
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 64 yds , Jayden Scott return for 17 yds to the NCSU 18
93.7%
0.0
Q1 14:46
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the NCSU 23
92.8%
-1.0
Q1 14:09
CJ Bailey sacked by Boubacar Traore for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 14
92.5%
-0.3
Q1 13:32
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 15
92.5%
0.0
Q1 12:53
Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 42
92.5%
0.0
ND · Drive 2TD · 7 plays · 58 yds
Q1 12:39
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 32 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST down
93.9%
+1.4
Q1 12:12
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the NCSU 24
94.2%
+0.3
Q1 11:32
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 19 yds to the NCSU 5 for a 1ST down
94.1%
-0.1
Q1 10:55
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the NCSU 5
94.1%
0.0
Q1 10:22
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NCSU 2
94.1%
0.0
Q1 9:49
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
96.6%
+2.4
Q1 9:49
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 09:49
93.2%
-3.4
NCSU · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q1 9:49
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
97.0%
+3.8
Q1 9:44
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 29
96.8%
-0.2
Q1 9:18
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 31
96.8%
0.0
Q1 8:44
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan Jackson
96.7%
-0.1
Q1 8:31
Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds
96.7%
0.0
ND · Drive 4DOWNS · 11 plays · 52 yds
Q1 8:24
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 1 yd to the ND 32
96.9%
+0.2
Q1 7:53
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 42 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST down
96.9%
0.0
Q1 7:18
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the NCSU 24
97.1%
+0.2
Q1 6:49
PENALTY UND False Start (Washington,Ty) 5 yards from NCS24 to NCS29. NO PLAY.
97.0%
-0.1
Q1 6:31
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NCSU 26
96.5%
-0.5
Q1 6:06
Timeout NC State, clock 06:06
96.7%
+0.1
Q1 5:58
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 10 yds to the NCSU 16 for a 1ST down
96.7%
0.0
Q1 5:16
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the NCSU 12
96.7%
0.0
Q1 4:39
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the NCSU 7
96.7%
0.0
Q1 3:54
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the NCSU 7
96.6%
-0.1
Q1 3:15
CJ Carr sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSU 17
96.5%
-0.1
NCSU · Drive 5TD · 14 plays · 83 yds
Q1 3:15
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 03:15
96.5%
-0.1
Q1 3:08
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly
96.5%
0.0
Q1 2:57
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 1 yd to the NCSU 18
96.5%
0.0
Q1 2:26
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 15 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST down
96.4%
0.0
Q1 2:04
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah Rogers
96.4%
0.0
Q1 1:57
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan Jackson
96.3%
-0.1
Q1 1:48
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:48
96.3%
0.0
Q1 1:38
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 9 yds to the NCSU 42
96.3%
0.0
Q1 0:55
Will Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down
96.3%
-0.1
Q1 0:00
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 46
96.0%
-0.2
Q2 14:51
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSU 49
96.0%
0.0
Q2 14:14
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST down
96.0%
0.0
Q2 13:48
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 45 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
90.8%
-5.2
Q2 13:48
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 13:48
96.4%
+5.6
ND · Drive 6PUNT · 7 plays · 20 yds
Q2 13:41
Charlie Birtwistle kickoff for 64 yds , Jadarian Price return for 22 yds to the ND 23
91.6%
-4.9
Q2 13:35
Jadarian Price run for 20 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST down
93.5%
+1.9
Q2 13:08
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass complete short left to Fields,Malachi caught at NCS48, for 17 yards to the NCS40 (Johnson,JJ; Nelson, II,Brian), out of bounds PENALTY UND Holding (Price,Jadarian) 10 yards from UND43 to UND33. NO PLAY.
93.7%
+0.2
Q2 12:50
Jadarian Price run for 10 yds to the ND 43
93.5%
-0.2
Q2 12:18
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi Fields
93.7%
+0.2
Q2 12:11
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will Pauling
93.6%
-0.1
Q2 12:05
James Rendell punt for 42 yds , Terrell Anderson returns for 2 yds to the NCSU 17
93.5%
-0.1
NCSU · Drive 7PUNT · 11 plays · 36 yds
Q2 12:05
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 12:05
91.6%
-2.0
Q2 12:02
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley Grimes
91.6%
0.0
Q2 11:57
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 20
91.4%
-0.1
Q2 11:07
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 21 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST down
91.4%
0.0
Q2 10:42
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 47
90.8%
-0.6
Q2 9:56
Jayden Scott run for 7 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST down
89.9%
-0.9
Q2 9:26
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 7 yds to the ND 39
89.8%
-0.1
Q2 8:56
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Smothers,Hollywood rush left for 1 yard gain to the UND38 (Burnham,Joshua) PENALTY NCS Holding (Peak,Jacarrius) 10 yards from UND39 to UND49. NO PLAY.
89.6%
-0.2
Q2 8:33
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the ND 47
89.8%
+0.2
Q2 7:54
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Hollywood Smothers
89.0%
-0.8
Q2 7:48
Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 10
89.1%
+0.1
ND · Drive 8PUNT · 7 plays · 6 yds
Q2 7:48
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 07:48
93.0%
+3.9
Q2 7:41
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 15
93.0%
0.0
Q2 7:15
PENALTY UND False Start (Knapp,Anthonie) 5 yards from UND15 to UND10. NO PLAY.
92.9%
-0.1
Q2 6:47
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 16
92.9%
0.0
Q2 6:14
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi Fields
91.7%
-1.2
Q2 6:14
Timeout NC State, clock 06:14
91.6%
-0.1
Q2 6:05
James Rendell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Terrell Anderson at the NCSU 37
91.6%
+3.7
NCSU · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · -5 yds
Q2 6:07
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 06:07
87.9%
-3.7
Q2 6:00
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the NCSU 43
88.4%
-3.2
Q2 5:26
CJ Bailey sacked by Elijah Hughes for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 40
88.8%
+0.4
Q2 4:43
CJ Bailey sacked by Jalen Stroman for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSU 32
89.0%
+0.1
Q2 4:06
Caden Noonkester punt for 36 yds
89.1%
+0.2
ND · Drive 10INT · 7 plays · 60 yds
Q2 3:55
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 23 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down
90.5%
+1.4
Q2 3:25
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 30 yds to the NCSU 15 for a 1ST down
91.1%
+0.6
Q2 3:01
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi Fields
91.3%
+0.1
Q2 2:57
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the NCSU 7
91.3%
0.0
Q2 2:14
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 8
90.6%
-0.7
Q2 2:00
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:00
90.4%
-0.2
Q2 1:51
CJ Carr pass intercepted, touchback. Asaad Brown Jr. return for no gain
90.4%
0.0
NCSU · Drive 11PUNT · 10 plays · 19 yds
Q2 1:45
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 22
88.3%
-2.1
Q2 1:44
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:44
88.3%
0.0
Q2 1:36
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 4 yds to the NCSU 26
88.3%
0.0
Q2 1:36
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:36
88.3%
0.0
Q2 1:31
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 11 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down
88.3%
0.0
Q2 1:04
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 1 yd to the NCSU 38
88.3%
0.0
Q2 0:50
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley Grimes
87.4%
-0.9
Q2 0:40
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 00:40
86.3%
-1.2
Q2 0:38
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the NCSU 39
86.1%
-0.2
Q2 0:23
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds , Jordan Faison returns for 23 yds to the ND 30
85.8%
-0.3
ND · Drive 12FG · 7 plays · 40 yds
Q2 0:18
(00:25) Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete short right to Faison,Jordan thrown to UND45 PENALTY NCS Pass Interference (Vick,Jackson) 15 yards from UND30 to UND45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
66.3%
-19.5
Q2 0:18
Timeout NC State, clock 00:18
66.2%
-0.1
Q2 0:12
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 20 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down
66.0%
-0.1
Q2 0:11
CJ Carr pass incomplete
67.2%
+1.2
Q2 0:08
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 3 yds to the NCSU 32
67.2%
0.0
Q2 0:05
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 2 yds to the NCSU 30
67.0%
-0.2
Q2 0:00
Noah Burnette 48 yd FG GOOD
93.4%
+26.4
ND · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q3 15:00
Charlie Birtwistle kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.9%
-4.5
Q3 14:54
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 25
89.8%
+1.0
Q3 14:21
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi Fields
90.3%
+0.4
Q3 14:16
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will Pauling
90.3%
0.0
Q3 14:07
James Rendell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Wesley Grimes at the NCSU 32
90.0%
-0.2
NCSU · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q3 14:04
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 36
88.9%
-1.2
Q3 13:29
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley Grimes
88.7%
-0.1
Q3 13:01
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah Rogers
88.7%
-0.1
Q3 12:54
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 10
88.7%
0.0
ND · Drive 15TD · 17 plays · 90 yds
Q3 12:54
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 12:54
91.1%
+2.4
Q3 12:49
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the ND 15
91.1%
0.0
Q3 12:09
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete deep right to Fields,Malachi thrown to UND35 PENALTY NCS Pass Interference (Marshall,Devon) 15 yards from UND15 to UND30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
91.1%
0.0
Q3 12:02
CJ Carr sacked by Travali Price for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 25
91.1%
0.0
Q3 11:27
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the ND 28
91.1%
0.0
Q3 10:57
PENALTY UND False Start (Craig,Ashton) 5 yards from UND28 to UND23. NO PLAY.
90.0%
-1.1
Q3 10:34
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 15 yds to the ND 38
90.0%
0.0
Q3 9:59
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST down
90.8%
+0.8
Q3 9:28
CJ Carr pass complete to KK Smith for 10 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST down
91.1%
+0.3
Q3 9:11
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete deep middle to Raridon,Eli thrown to NCS14 PENALTY NCS Pass Interference (Soares, Jr.,Kenny) 15 yards from NCS49 to NCS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
91.3%
+0.2
Q3 9:06
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the NCSU 31
91.5%
+0.1
Q3 8:38
Jadarian Price run for 11 yds to the NCSU 20 for a 1ST down
91.5%
0.0
Q3 8:30
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 08:30
92.0%
+0.5
Q3 8:14
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the NCSU 18
92.0%
0.0
Q3 7:39
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the NCSU 18
92.0%
0.0
Q3 6:58
CJ Carr pass complete to KK Smith for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
97.2%
+5.3
Q3 6:58
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 06:58
91.9%
-5.3
NCSU · Drive 16PUNT · 7 plays · 19 yds
Q3 6:58
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
97.2%
+5.3
Q3 6:45
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 4 yds to the NCSU 29
95.2%
-2.0
Q3 6:19
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 9 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST down
95.2%
0.0
Q3 5:37
Hollywood Smothers pass complete to CJ Bailey for 4 yds to the NCSU 34
95.2%
0.0
Q3 5:05
NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caden Fordham) declined
95.3%
+0.1
Q3 4:56
CJ Bailey run for 10 yds to the NCSU 44
95.2%
-0.1
Q3 4:14
Caden Noonkester punt for 56 yds for a touchback
94.9%
-2.1
ND · Drive 17TD · 6 plays · 80 yds
Q3 4:15
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 04:15
97.0%
+1.8
Q3 4:09
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will Pauling
97.0%
+2.1
Q3 3:59
Jeremiyah Love run for 24 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST down
97.0%
0.0
Q3 3:36
CJ Carr pass complete to KK Smith for 31 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST down
97.0%
0.0
Q3 3:12
Jeremiyah Love run for 13 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST down
97.0%
+0.1
Q3 2:46
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
99.7%
+2.7
NCSU · Drive 18INT · 7 plays · 23 yds
Q3 2:46
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 58 yds
99.7%
0.0
Q3 2:36
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down
99.0%
-0.7
Q3 1:57
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 14 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST down
99.0%
0.0
Q3 1:22
CJ Bailey sacked by Boubacar Traore for a loss of 12 yards to the NCSU 37
99.0%
0.0
Q3 0:00
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 7 yds to the NCSU 44
99.0%
0.0
Q4 14:43
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 4 yds to the NCSU 48
99.0%
0.0
Q4 14:04
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Adon Shuler return for 44 yds to the NCSU 17
99.0%
0.0
ND · Drive 19FG · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q4 13:52
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the NCSU 15
99.7%
+0.7
Q4 13:35
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 16
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:53
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi Fields
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:48
Noah Burnette 34 yd FG GOOD
99.8%
+0.1
Q4 12:48
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 12:48
99.1%
-0.8
NCSU · Drive 20INT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q4 12:48
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.8%
+0.8
Q4 12:42
Hollywood Smothers run for 7 yds to the NCSU 32
99.3%
-0.5
Q4 12:12
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 32
99.3%
0.0
Q4 11:33
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa return for 20 yds to the NCSU 14
99.3%
0.0
Q4 11:33
NC State Penalty, Defensive Holding (CJ Bailey) declined
99.3%
0.0
ND · Drive 21FUMBLE · 5 plays · 18 yds
Q4 11:27
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the NCSU 17
99.8%
+0.5
Q4 10:50
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan Faison
99.8%
0.0
Q4 10:38
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 14 yds to the NCSU 3 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 10:10
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the NCSU 2
99.8%
0.0
Q4 9:37
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the NCSU 2 Jadarian Price fumbled, recovered by NCSU Cian Slone
99.8%
+0.6
NCSU · Drive 22SF · 3 plays · -2 yds
Q4 9:37
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 09:37
99.3%
-0.5
Q4 9:17
Team Safety
99.3%
-0.5
Q4 9:01
PENALTY UND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Traore,Boubacar) 15 yards from NCS20 to NCS35. NO PLAY.
99.3%
0.0
ND · Drive 23TD · 12 plays · 82 yds
Q4 8:54
Charlie Birtwistle kickoff for 64 yds , Jadarian Price return for 17 yds to the ND 18
99.3%
0.0
Q4 8:47
CJ Carr run for 5 yds to the ND 23
99.9%
+0.5
Q4 8:16
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jeremiyah Love
99.9%
0.0
Q4 8:06
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 17 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 7:43
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 45
99.9%
0.0
Q4 7:20
CJ Carr pass incomplete to KK Smith
99.9%
0.0
Q4 7:08
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 7 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:52
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the NCSU 41
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:18
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:34
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 36 yds to the NCSU 1 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:13
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 5:13
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 05:13
99.4%
-0.6
NCSU · Drive 24INT · 13 plays · 46 yds
Q4 5:13
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
+0.6
Q4 5:05
(05:11) Shotgun Smothers,Hollywood rush left for 1 yard loss to the NCS24 (Dawson,Jared; Young,Bryce) PENALTY UND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Young,Bryce) 15 yards from NCS25 to NCS40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.7%
-0.2
Q4 4:49
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the NCSU 40
99.7%
0.0
Q4 4:08
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd to the NCSU 41
99.7%
0.0
Q4 3:19
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 26 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 3:03
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the ND 33
99.7%
0.0
Q4 2:31
Jayden Scott run for 7 yds to the ND 26
99.7%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:00
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:51
Will Wilson run for 2 yds to the ND 24
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:24
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:24
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:24
PENALTY NCS False Start (Hardy,Cody) 5 yards from UND24 to UND29. NO PLAY.
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:16
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Karson Hobbs return for 11 yds to the ND 20
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:16
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Karson Hobbs return for 11 yds to the ND 20
99.7%
0.0
ND · Drive 25END OF GAME · 2 plays · -2 yds
Q4 1:05
K. Minchey takes a knee
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 0:00
K. Minchey takes a knee
99.9%
0.0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Noah Burnette 48 yd FG GOOD
+26.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:18
(00:25) Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete short right to Faison,Jordan thrown to UND45 PENALTY NCS Pass Interference (Vick,Jackson) 15 yards from UND30 to UND45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-19.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 13:48
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 13:48
+5.6