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VT

Virginia Tech 23 at NC State 21

NCSU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:36 · Nick Veltsistas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior+0.8Home team on offense−19.3Garbage-time factor−6.1Score differential−5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:26: Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 11 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +6.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:10: CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:20: Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the NCSU 0 (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +33.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:58: Jayden Scott run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +27.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:31: John Love 49 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +17.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:48VT 4th & 8 at VT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51VT 4th & 5 at NCSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:52VT 4th & 7 at VT 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:07NCSU 4th & 1 at VT 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−1.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:33NCSU 4th & 24 at NCSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:26VT 4th & 7 at NCSU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:33NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:59NCSU 4th & 1 at VT 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−3.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:33VT 4th & 1 at VT 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.6%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:13VT 4th & 15 at VT 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:04NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−2.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:31VT 4th & 6 at NCSU 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−6.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:16NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:36VT 4th & 1 at VT 40, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.9 ptsPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−8.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:42NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 44, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.4%−13.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:38NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:26VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:10NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:20VT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:58NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:0322% → 23%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
77.8%
Marcellous Hawkins run for 1 yd to the VT 22Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
77.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 4 yds to the VT 26Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+19
77.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 19 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
77.3%
PENALTY VT False Start (Altuner,Kyle) 5 yards from VT45 to VT40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
77.3%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+7
77.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds to the VT 47Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
77.0%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Braydon BennettSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
77.1%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4477% → 76%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
77.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 7Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 13
OWN 7
0
76.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 7Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
76.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for no gain to the NCSU 7Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 13
OWN 7
+14
76.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 47 yds , Isaiah Spencer returns for 14 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:5224% → 24%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
76.1%
Terion Stewart run for 14 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
75.8%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Terion StewartSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
75.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 5 yds to the NCSU 21Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
75.7%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
75.8%
John Love 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0576% → 77%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
75.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
75.4%
Will Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
75.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
75.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 7 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
75.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 11 yds to the VT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
75.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the VT 35Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
75.3%
CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+9
74.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 9 yds to the VT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
75.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 22 yds to the VT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
75.0%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Scott,Jayden "Duke" rush right for 2 yards gain to the VT00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:21 PENALTY NCSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from VT02 to VT07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
75.0%
Jayden Scott run for 3 yds to the VT 4Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dante Daniels for 4 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3924% → 24%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 3 yds to the VT 28Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
75.6%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden GreeneSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
76.0%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
76.3%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3876% → 75%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
75.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+17
76.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 17 yds to the VT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
76.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 4 yds to the VT 43Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
76.4%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
76.1%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the VT 38Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
75.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the VT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:3526% → 32%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
74.5%
Terion Stewart run for 13 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
73.7%
Terion Stewart run for 10 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
73.6%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
73.4%
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+14
73.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 14 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
72.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 5 yds to the NCSU 16Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
72.2%
Kyron Drones run for 6 yds to the NCSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
72.0%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 11Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
71.7%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
67.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 11 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:4070% → 67%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
69.8%
CJ Bailey sacked by Noah Chambers for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 22Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
69.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+27
67.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 27 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
70.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the VT 45Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-2
70.6%
CJ Bailey sacked by Jason Abbey for a loss of 2 yards to the VT 47Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-16
69.6%
NC State Penalty, (Yards) to the NCSU 37Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 24
OWN 37
0
66.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:0132% → 43%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
67.8%
Marcellous Hawkins run for 2 yds to the VT 10Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+5
67.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 5 yds to the VT 15Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+9
67.2%
Kyron Drones run for 9 yds to the VT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
66.1%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden GreeneSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+22
66.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 22 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
63.9%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Shamarius PeterkinSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+36
64.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 36 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
62.3%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Terion StewartSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
62.3%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden GreeneSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+3
63.2%
Kyron Drones run for 3 yds to the NCSU 15Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
57.4%
John Love 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:4261% → 59%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-9
60.4%
CJ Bailey sacked by Elhadj Fall for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 17Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+10
59.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
58.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Spencer at the VT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:3046% → 45%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
54.3%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden GreeneSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
54.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 5 yds to the VT 36Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-5
53.4%
PENALTY VT False Start (Lynch,Aidan) 5 yards from VT36 to VT31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+25
54.9%
Marcellous Hawkins run for 25 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
50.3%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass complete short left to Spencer,Isaiah caught at NCSU36, for 8 yards to the NCSU36, End Of Play PENALTY VT Holding (Lynch,Aidan) 10 yards from NCSU44 to VT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 20
OWN 46
-11
52.3%
Kyron Drones sacked by Cian Slone for a loss of 11 yards to the VT 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 31
OWN 35
+19
55.3%
Marcellous Hawkins run for 19 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4559% → 75%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
59.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 2 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
58.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.4%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
57.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 16 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
60.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
59.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 5 yds to the VT 36Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
59.0%
Will Wilson run for no gain to the VT 36Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
56.9%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
59.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 16 yds to the VT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
59.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the VT 13Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
74.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 5:4330% → 30%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
70.0%
Terion Stewart run for 11 yds to the VT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
69.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds to the VT 36Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
68.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 5 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-5
66.9%
PENALTY VT False Start (Cunningham,Montavious) 5 yards from VT41 to VT36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
69.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 5 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+1
68.8%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the VT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.7%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Shamarius PeterkinSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
67.4%
Terion Stewart run for 11 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
65.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 13
50
+5
66.6%
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-7
65.0%
Kyron Drones sacked by Sabastian Harsh for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 48Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
69.6%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0369% → 66%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
68.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 19Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-4
68.3%
CJ Bailey sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 15Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+8
66.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 8 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
65.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 66 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:2832% → 66%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+85
67.6%
Terion Stewart run for 85 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the NCSU 0 (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0245% → 73%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
45.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 7 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
44.0%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete deep right to Hoffmann,Teddy thrown to VT33, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY VT Pass Interference (Cash,Isaiah) 10 yards from NCSU30 to NCSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
48.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 43Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
48.3%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+20
44.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 20 yds to the VT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
49.6%
Jayden Scott run for 2 yds to the VT 35Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+24
51.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 24 yds to the VT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
50.8%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the VT 6Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
50.4%
Will Wilson run for 5 yds to the VT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.6%
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:1536% → 60%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
63.6%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+13
63.2%
Terion Stewart run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
50
0
58.8%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden GreeneSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
50
+2
59.8%
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+14
59.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 14 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
56.3%
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
56.1%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+7
57.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 7 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-5
57.7%
(06:32) PENALTY VT Delay Of Game 5 yards from NCSU25 to NCSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+49
39.8%
John Love 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0849% → 39%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
49.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
47.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 11 yds Wesley Grimes fumbled, recovered by VT Teague AndersenSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 21
OWN 24
0
45.2%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+10
43.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 10 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+2
39.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VT 19 , Isaiah Spencer returns for 2 yds to the VT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:3468% → 81%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
31.8%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the VT 22Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
29.7%
Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the VT 26Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+5
28.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ja'Ricous Hairston for 5 yds to the VT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
24.1%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
20.3%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the VT 34Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
20.3%
Kyron Drones run for 6 yds to the VT 40Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
19.2%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:4335% → 30%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
34.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for no gain to the NCSU 18Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
29.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+17
27.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 17 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
31.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
31.1%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
28.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 7 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
29.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
5.5%
K. Drones takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:20
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the NCSU 0 (John Love KICK)
-33.2
TD · Q4 10:58
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+27.8
FG · Q4 6:31
John Love 49 yd FG GOOD
-17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com