VT
Virginia Tech 23 at NC State 21
NCSU2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
VT · Drive 1PUNT · 9 plays · 26 yds
Q1 14:56
Charlie Birtwistle kickoff for 65 yds , P.J. Prioleau return for 21 yds to the VT 21
73.7%
0.0
Q1 14:51
Marcellous Hawkins run for 1 yd to the VT 22
72.1%
-1.7
Q1 14:06
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 4 yds to the VT 26
71.1%
-1.0
Q1 13:38
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 19 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST down
71.1%
0.0
Q1 13:16
PENALTY VT False Start (Altuner,Kyle) 5 yards from VT45 to VT40. NO PLAY.
69.4%
-1.7
Q1 12:44
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Donavon Greene
70.1%
+0.7
Q1 12:34
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds to the VT 47
70.1%
0.0
Q1 11:54
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Braydon Bennett
69.2%
-0.9
Q1 11:48
Nick Veltsistas punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 10
69.5%
+0.3
NCSU · Drive 2PUNT · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q1 11:35
run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 7
73.5%
+4.0
Q1 11:12
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 7
73.5%
0.0
Q1 10:41
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for no gain to the NCSU 7
73.5%
0.0
Q1 9:51
Caden Noonkester punt for 47 yds , Isaiah Spencer returns for 14 yds to the NCSU 40
73.2%
-0.3
VT · Drive 3FG · 5 plays · 19 yds
Q1 9:43
Terion Stewart run for 14 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST down
68.8%
-4.4
Q1 9:17
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Terion Stewart
68.9%
+0.1
Q1 9:08
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 5 yds to the NCSU 21
68.9%
0.0
Q1 8:55
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Donavon Greene
68.6%
-0.3
Q1 8:51
John Love 39 yd FG GOOD
65.1%
-3.4
NCSU · Drive 4TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q1 8:51
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
66.3%
+1.2
Q1 8:43
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the NCSU 31
70.8%
+4.4
Q1 8:09
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 33
70.9%
+0.1
Q1 7:20
Will Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST down
70.9%
0.0
Q1 6:49
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the NCSU 44
70.9%
0.0
Q1 6:11
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 7 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST down
70.2%
-0.7
Q1 5:48
Hollywood Smothers run for 11 yds to the VT 38 for a 1ST down
69.2%
-0.9
Q1 5:07
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the VT 35
70.1%
+0.8
Q1 4:48
CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the VT 33
70.1%
0.0
Q1 4:15
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 9 yds to the VT 24 for a 1ST down
69.9%
-0.2
Q1 3:38
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 22 yds to the VT 2 for a 1ST down
70.0%
+0.1
Q1 3:21
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Scott,Jayden "Duke" rush right for 2 yards gain to the VT00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:21 PENALTY NCSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from VT02 to VT07. NO PLAY.
69.7%
-0.3
Q1 3:16
Jayden Scott run for 3 yds to the VT 4
70.0%
+0.3
Q1 2:38
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dante Daniels for 4 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
78.9%
+8.9
VT · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q1 2:38
Charlie Birtwistle kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.7%
-1.2
Q1 2:31
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 3 yds to the VT 28
75.0%
-2.7
Q1 2:05
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
74.9%
-0.1
Q1 1:59
Kyron Drones pass incomplete
74.2%
-0.6
Q1 1:52
Nick Veltsistas punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 32
74.2%
0.0
NCSU · Drive 6DOWNS · 6 plays · 30 yds
Q1 1:45
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 36
77.3%
+3.0
Q1 1:07
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 17 yds to the VT 47 for a 1ST down
77.6%
+0.3
Q1 0:00
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 4 yds to the VT 43
77.9%
+0.3
Q2 14:54
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah Rogers
78.1%
+0.3
Q2 14:47
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the VT 38
79.7%
+1.5
Q2 14:07
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the VT 38
79.2%
-0.5
VT · Drive 7TD · 11 plays · 62 yds
Q2 14:01
Terion Stewart run for 13 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST down
73.2%
-6.0
Q2 13:38
Terion Stewart run for 10 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST down
72.0%
-1.1
Q2 13:20
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the NCSU 37
71.6%
-0.5
Q2 12:40
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35
71.6%
0.0
Q2 11:57
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 14 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST down
71.4%
-0.1
Q2 11:15
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 5 yds to the NCSU 16
71.4%
0.0
Q2 10:48
Kyron Drones run for 6 yds to the NCSU 10 for a 1ST down
71.4%
0.0
Q2 10:11
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 11
71.4%
0.0
Q2 9:31
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Donavon Greene
71.4%
0.0
Q2 9:31
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 09:31
70.8%
-0.6
Q2 9:26
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 11 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
59.0%
-11.8
NCSU · Drive 8PUNT · 8 plays · 12 yds
Q2 9:26
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
61.1%
+2.0
Q2 9:13
CJ Bailey sacked by Noah Chambers for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 22
63.8%
+2.8
Q2 8:51
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 24
63.8%
0.0
Q2 8:09
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 27 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST down
61.8%
-2.0
Q2 7:49
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the VT 45
63.6%
+1.8
Q2 7:15
CJ Bailey sacked by Jason Abbey for a loss of 2 yards to the VT 47
63.6%
0.0
Q2 6:44
NC State Penalty, (Yards) to the NCSU 37
63.4%
-0.2
Q2 6:33
Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds
61.8%
-1.6
VT · Drive 9FG · 11 plays · 77 yds
Q2 6:27
Marcellous Hawkins run for 2 yds to the VT 10
58.8%
-3.1
Q2 6:01
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 5 yds to the VT 15
58.8%
0.0
Q2 5:19
Kyron Drones run for 9 yds to the VT 24 for a 1ST down
58.8%
0.0
Q2 4:45
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
58.8%
0.0
Q2 4:32
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 22 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST down
58.8%
0.0
Q2 4:04
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Shamarius Peterkin
56.9%
-1.9
Q2 3:53
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 36 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST down
56.9%
0.0
Q2 3:20
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Terion Stewart
56.7%
-0.1
Q2 3:15
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
56.7%
0.0
Q2 3:07
Kyron Drones run for 3 yds to the NCSU 15
56.7%
0.0
Q2 2:26
John Love 32 yd FG GOOD
46.5%
-10.3
NCSU · Drive 10PUNT · 7 plays · 2 yds
Q2 2:26
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
47.5%
+1.0
Q2 2:15
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 1 yd to the NCSU 26
53.7%
+6.2
Q2 1:54
CJ Bailey sacked by Elhadj Fall for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 17
53.6%
-0.1
Q2 1:46
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 01:46
53.6%
0.0
Q2 1:41
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the NCSU 27
53.6%
0.0
Q2 1:40
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 01:40
53.6%
0.0
Q2 1:33
Caden Noonkester punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Spencer at the VT 31
53.6%
0.0
VT · Drive 11END OF HALF · 8 plays · 23 yds
Q2 1:30
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
47.2%
-6.4
Q2 1:18
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 5 yds to the VT 36
47.2%
0.0
Q2 0:55
PENALTY VT False Start (Lynch,Aidan) 5 yards from VT36 to VT31. NO PLAY.
46.5%
-0.7
Q2 0:48
Marcellous Hawkins run for 25 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down
47.2%
+0.7
Q2 0:35
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass complete short left to Spencer,Isaiah caught at NCSU36, for 8 yards to the NCSU36, End Of Play PENALTY VT Holding (Lynch,Aidan) 10 yards from NCSU44 to VT46. NO PLAY.
45.4%
-1.8
Q2 0:27
Kyron Drones sacked by Cian Slone for a loss of 11 yards to the VT 35
44.3%
-1.1
Q2 0:20
Timeout NC State, clock 00:20
45.4%
+1.1
Q2 0:00
Marcellous Hawkins run for 19 yds to the NCSU 46
44.7%
-0.7
NCSU · Drive 12TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
45.9%
+1.1
Q3 14:55
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31
52.8%
+7.0
Q3 14:29
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 2 yds to the NCSU 33
52.8%
0.0
Q3 13:55
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST down
52.8%
0.0
Q3 13:25
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly
52.8%
-0.1
Q3 13:07
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 16 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST down
52.6%
-0.1
Q3 12:57
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the VT 41
54.2%
+1.6
Q3 12:27
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 5 yds to the VT 36
55.2%
+1.0
Q3 11:43
Will Wilson run for no gain to the VT 36
54.3%
-0.9
Q3 10:59
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST down
53.7%
-0.7
Q3 10:16
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 16 yds to the VT 17 for a 1ST down
54.3%
+0.7
Q3 9:49
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the VT 13
54.1%
-0.2
Q3 9:10
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
74.8%
+20.7
VT · Drive 13PUNT · 13 plays · 27 yds
Q3 9:05
Charlie Birtwistle kickoff for 65 yds , Thomas Williams return for 21 yds to the VT 21
73.4%
-1.4
Q3 8:56
Terion Stewart run for 11 yds to the VT 32 for a 1ST down
68.7%
-4.8
Q3 8:26
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds to the VT 36
68.6%
-0.1
Q3 7:49
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 5 yds to the VT 41
68.6%
0.0
Q3 7:19
PENALTY VT False Start (Cunningham,Montavious) 5 yards from VT41 to VT36. NO PLAY.
67.5%
-1.1
Q3 6:54
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 5 yds to the VT 41
68.6%
+1.1
Q3 6:33
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the VT 42 for a 1ST down
67.8%
-0.8
Q3 6:06
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Shamarius Peterkin
67.5%
-0.3
Q3 5:59
Terion Stewart run for 11 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST down
67.5%
0.0
Q3 5:17
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
66.7%
-0.8
Q3 4:39
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the NCSU 45
65.9%
-0.8
Q3 4:00
Kyron Drones sacked by Sabastian Harsh for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 48
65.3%
-0.6
Q3 3:13
Nick Veltsistas punt for 52 yds for a touchback
65.9%
+0.6
NCSU · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · 3 yds
Q3 3:07
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 19
71.9%
+6.1
Q3 2:34
CJ Bailey sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 15
71.9%
0.0
Q3 1:55
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 8 yds to the NCSU 23
71.9%
0.0
Q3 1:04
Caden Noonkester punt for 66 yds
71.4%
-0.5
VT · Drive 15TD · 2 plays · 89 yds
Q3 0:48
Terion Stewart run for 85 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST down
67.4%
-4.0
Q3 0:20
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the NCSU 0 (John Love KICK)
36.4%
-30.9
NCSU · Drive 16TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q3 0:20
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
38.4%
+2.0
Q3 0:00
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30
48.7%
+10.3
Q4 14:54
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 7 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down
48.7%
0.0
Q4 14:33
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete deep right to Hoffmann,Teddy thrown to VT33, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY VT Pass Interference (Cash,Isaiah) 10 yards from NCSU30 to NCSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
48.5%
-0.2
Q4 14:27
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 43
49.1%
+0.7
Q4 13:57
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly
49.1%
0.0
Q4 13:49
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 20 yds to the VT 37 for a 1ST down
45.9%
-3.3
Q4 13:38
Jayden Scott run for 2 yds to the VT 35
49.4%
+3.5
Q4 12:57
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 24 yds to the VT 11 for a 1ST down
49.4%
0.0
Q4 12:19
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the VT 6
49.4%
0.0
Q4 11:39
Will Wilson run for 5 yds to the VT 1 for a 1ST down
49.4%
0.0
Q4 11:02
Timeout NC State, clock 11:02
46.4%
-2.9
Q4 10:58
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
72.8%
+26.3
VT · Drive 17FG · 11 plays · 35 yds
Q4 10:51
Charlie Birtwistle kickoff for 57 yds , Thomas Williams return for 27 yds to the VT 35
71.3%
-1.4
Q4 10:46
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the VT 37
66.6%
-4.7
Q4 10:09
Terion Stewart run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
66.6%
0.0
Q4 9:46
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
64.2%
-2.4
Q4 9:40
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the NCSU 48
63.6%
-0.6
Q4 8:53
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 14 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST down
63.6%
0.0
Q4 8:34
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the NCSU 32
62.9%
-0.7
Q4 8:02
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the NCSU 32
62.4%
-0.5
Q4 7:15
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 7 yds to the NCSU 25
62.4%
0.0
Q4 6:35
(06:32) PENALTY VT Delay Of Game 5 yards from NCSU25 to NCSU30. NO PLAY.
63.1%
+0.7
Q4 6:31
John Love 49 yd FG GOOD
42.8%
-20.3
NCSU · Drive 18PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q4 6:31
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
43.9%
+1.1
Q4 6:24
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down
54.3%
+10.4
Q4 5:26
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 11 yds Wesley Grimes fumbled, recovered by VT Teague Andersen
51.5%
-2.9
Q4 5:10
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley Grimes
51.5%
0.0
Q4 5:02
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 10 yds to the NCSU 34
51.8%
+0.3
Q4 4:16
Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VT 19 , Isaiah Spencer returns for 2 yds to the VT 19
49.9%
-1.9
VT · Drive 19PUNT · 9 plays · 21 yds
Q4 4:10
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the VT 22
40.6%
-9.3
Q4 3:29
Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the VT 26
40.1%
-0.5
Q4 2:46
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ja'Ricous Hairston for 5 yds to the VT 31 for a 1ST down
38.7%
-1.4
Q4 2:06
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the VT 33
35.1%
-3.6
Q4 1:55
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the VT 34
34.1%
-1.0
Q4 1:52
Timeout NC State, clock 01:52
34.1%
0.0
Q4 1:44
Kyron Drones run for 6 yds to the VT 40
34.1%
0.0
Q4 1:42
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 01:42
33.2%
-0.9
Q4 1:36
Nick Veltsistas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 18
33.2%
0.0
NCSU · Drive 20DOWNS · 7 plays · 26 yds
Q4 1:25
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for no gain to the NCSU 18
44.1%
+10.9
Q4 1:11
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan Jackson
40.7%
-3.4
Q4 1:01
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 17 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down
39.0%
-1.7
Q4 0:54
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the NCSU 37
39.0%
0.0
Q4 0:51
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly
39.0%
0.0
Q4 0:46
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 7 yds to the NCSU 44
38.6%
-0.5
Q4 0:42
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly
38.5%
0.0
VT · Drive 21END OF GAME · 1 play · -6 yds
Q4 0:00
K. Drones takes a knee
18.3%
-20.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:20
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the NCSU 0 (John Love KICK)
-30.9
TD · Q4 10:58
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+26.3
TD · Q3 9:10
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+20.7