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NCSU

NC State 33 at Duke 45

DUKE
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-14.4DUKE 56.3%Hollywood Smothers run for 51 yds fora TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)AWAY 26 - HOME 28 · Q3 11:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:53 · Hollywood Smothers run for 51 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.1Pregame prior+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:20: Darian Mensah pass complete to Landen King for 17 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +13.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:16: Anderson Castle run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:53: Hollywood Smothers run for 51 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NCSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:32: Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 37 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:01: Will Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +23.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:32DUKE 4th & 4 at NCSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:31DUKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:39DUKE 4th & 7 at NCSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:49NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.8%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:45NCSU 4th & 2 at DUKE 24, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:32DUKE 4th & 1 at NCSU 37, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−4.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:40NCSU 4th & 8 at DUKE 8, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−11.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:43DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 17, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:17NCSU 4th & 7 at DUKE 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−1.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:18DUKE 4th & 9 at NCSU 26, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:27DUKE 4th & 20 at NCSU 43, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:24NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 43, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:10NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:49DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:18NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:45NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:20DUKE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:16DUKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:30DUKE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:53NCSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:32DUKE Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:01NCSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:19DUKE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 0:4045% → 45%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
55.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 25Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
55.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+75
54.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 75 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:0855% → 56%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
54.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 15 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
54.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 12 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
54.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the NCSU 42Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
54.6%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jaquez MooreSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
54.5%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 9
OPP 42
+5
54.3%
PENALTY NCSU Offside 5 yards from NCSU42 to NCSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+21
54.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 21 yds to the NCSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
54.6%
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the NCSU 13Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+10
54.5%
Nate Sheppard run for 10 yds to the NCSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
54.5%
Nate Sheppard run for 1 yd to the NCSU 2Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.0%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3545% → 45%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
55.3%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted DaShawn Stone return for no gain to the NCSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3256% → 55%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
56.0%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jaquez MooreSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
55.9%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-1
55.6%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 47Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 12
OPP 47
-5
55.0%
PENALTY DUKE Delay Of Game 5 yards from NCSU47 to DUKE48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
55.1%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
19 plays · 99 yds · 9:0345% → 54%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+14
55.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 14 yds to the NCSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
55.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 13Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+18
55.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 18 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
55.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 8 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+6
54.6%
Jayden Scott run for 6 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
54.6%
Jayden Scott run for 15 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
54.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 5 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
53.8%
Jayden Scott run for 7 yds to the DUKE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
53.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 3 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
53.6%
PENALTY NCSU False Start (Locklear,Ashton) 5 yards from DUKE25 to DUKE30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+6
53.8%
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+7
54.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 7 yds to the DUKE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
53.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-10
52.7%
(01:47) Shotgun Bailey,CJ rush right for 8 yards gain to the DUKE01 (Freeman,Tre; Mergott,Luke), out of bounds PENALTY NCSU Holding (Erickson,Val) 10 yards from DUKE09 to DUKE19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+11
52.9%
CJ Bailey run for 11 yds to the DUKE 8Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
53.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the DUKE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
52.4%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 6Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
46.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 6 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:3049% → 48%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 8 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
49.9%
Nate Sheppard run for 4 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
49.2%
Darian Mensah sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 34Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+14
48.3%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass incomplete short middle to Brown,Que'Sean thrown to DUKE45 PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (Royal, III,Ronnie) 14 yards from DUKE34 to DUKE48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
50.1%
Nate Sheppard run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 8
50
+5
50.1%
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-4
50.0%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 49Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
47.9%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:4953% → 65%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 20Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
46.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 7 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
45.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 2 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+4
46.2%
Brandon Cleveland run for 4 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
43.6%
Duke Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
42.3%
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the NCSU 48Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
42.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 5 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+25
41.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 25 yds to the DUKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.2%
Will Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD Duke Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Vincent Anthony Jr.) to the DUKE 0 (Kanoah Vinesett PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:1432% → 47%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
32.1%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
31.7%
Darian Mensah run for no gain to the DUKE 28 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
30.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 15 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
32.1%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
31.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 6 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
31.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 5 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
32.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 6 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+13
32.4%
Nate Sheppard run for 13 yds to the NCSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
32.8%
Darian Mensah run for 10 yds to the NCSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
46.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Landen King for 17 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9INT
10 plays · 51 yds · 1:2958% → 53%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 24Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+44
43.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 44 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
37.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-1
37.4%
CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 28Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
38.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 4 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 2
OPP 24
-67
46.9%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Tre Freeman return for 67 yds to the NCSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:2553% → 67%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
52.5%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass incomplete short left to Hasley,Jeremiah thrown to NCSU00 PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (Royal, III,Ronnie) 10 yards from NCSU12 to NCSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.9%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the NCSU 1Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.8%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
63.0%
(00:07) Kneel down by NC State at NCSU24 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2261% → 76%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
60.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 18 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
63.0%
Nate Sheppard run for 9 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+15
64.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 15 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
75.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 33 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3128% → 44%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 25Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
72.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 16 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+51
56.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 51 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1561% → 76%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 8 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
62.5%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
61.8%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+13
63.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 13 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
64.7%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
64.4%
Nate Sheppard run for 2 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+7
63.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Chase Tyler for 7 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+37
76.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 37 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:4024% → 23%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
75.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+42
74.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 42 yds to the DUKE 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
72.9%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 8Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
73.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for no gain to the DUKE 8Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
74.8%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
77.1%
Kanoah Vinesett 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Wesley Williams (05:44) Vinesett,Kanoah field goal attempt from 25 yards NO GOOD blocked by Williams,Wesley (H: Noonkester,Caden, LS: Mann,Jake), clock 05:40 recovered by DUKE Callahan,Landan at DUKE16, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5378% → 78%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
78.4%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass complete short right to Barkate,Cooper caught at DUKE25, for 7 yards to the DUKE23 (Johnson,Jamel), out of bounds PENALTY DUKE Holding (Hasley,Jeremiah) 8 yards from DUKE16 to DUKE08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+2
78.2%
Nate Sheppard run for 2 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+2
79.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 2 yds to the DUKE 12Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
78.5%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+5
77.7%
PENALTY NCSU Offside 5 yards from DUKE12 to DUKE17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+3
77.8%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 26 yds , Teddy Hoffmann returns for 3 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1223% → 20%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for no gain to the DUKE 40Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
77.2%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Terrell AndersonSimilar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+3
78.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 3 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
79.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4482% → 88%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
82.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 20 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
83.3%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
83.1%
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+11
82.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 11 yds to the NCSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
84.2%
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-2
84.3%
Nate Sheppard run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 26Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
83.2%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
87.6%
Todd Pelino 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3713% → 14%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
86.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 11 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
86.5%
CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the NCSU 33 CJ Bailey fumbled, recovered by NCSU Wesley WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:5090% → 91%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
89.5%
Darian Mensah sacked by Brandon Cleveland for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
91.3%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 35Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-8
91.9%
Darian Mensah sacked by Tra Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSU 43Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 20
OPP 43
0
90.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
17 plays · 95 yds · 7:2111% → 32%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+18
88.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 18 yds to the NCSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
89.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Brandon Cleveland for 9 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+1
89.9%
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
90.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 1 yd to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+15
90.3%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete short right to Anderson,Terrell thrown to NCSU50 PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference (Callahan,Landan) 15 yards from NCSU34 to NCSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
89.9%
Jayden Scott run for 6 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
89.5%
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the DUKE 45Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
90.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 7 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
90.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the DUKE 38Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
91.1%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete short left thrown to NCSU50 QB hurried by Williams,Wesley and Johnson,Kendall PENALTY DUKE Roughing The Passer offsetting NCSU Intentional Grounding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
91.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 15 yds to the DUKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
90.9%
CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 28Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
91.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Teddy HoffmannSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+26
92.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 26 yds to the DUKE 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the DUKE 1Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the DUKE 1Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.0%
Will Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3786% → 97%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.9%
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
88.1%
Nate Sheppard run for 4 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
96.5%
Anderson Castle run for 66 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23INT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:474% → 3%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
95.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 14 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
95.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
94.8%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+2
95.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 2 yds to the NCSU 43Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 6
OWN 43
-2
97.0%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Moussa Kane return for 2 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+15
97.0%
Duke Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (DaShawn Stone) to the DUKE 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1998% → 98%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
97.9%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
98.3%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+7
98.3%
Anderson Castle run for 7 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.4%
(00:43) Kneel down by Duke at NCSU50 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:01
Will Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
-23.9
TD · Q3 11:53
Hollywood Smothers run for 51 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-14.4
TD · Q2 0:16
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com