2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:07 · Nick Veltsistas punt for 50 yds , Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding returns for 8 yds to the ODU 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:30: Colton Joseph run for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +3.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:38: Maurki James run for 10 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +7.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:44: Trequan Jones run for 11 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +14.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:53: Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 13 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (15 Yards) to the VT 0 (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +7.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:32: Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 10 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +6.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 13:04ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 33, tiedClose callPunted · 34.4% before the snapGo for it34.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:07VT 4th & 11 at VT 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it65.3%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%average punt
- Q1 8:54VT 4th & 19 at VT 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it64.6%−0.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.0%average punt
- Q1 8:54VT 4th & 19 at VT 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it64.6%−0.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.0%average punt
- Q2 2:46VT 4th & 8 at VT 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snapGo for it26.9%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.1%average punt
- Q2 1:35ODU 4th & 8 at VT 39, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.3%34% to convertField goal79.2%−0.136% to makePunt78.9%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:59VT 4th & 3 at ODU 46, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.9%52% to convertField goal7.7%−0.223% to makePunt7.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:59VT 4th & 3 at ODU 46, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.9%52% to convertField goal7.7%−0.223% to makePunt7.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:54ODU 4th & 10 at VT 32, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.9%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call93.9%51% to makePunt93.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:36VT 4th & 19 at VT 28, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q3 5:16ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 31, up 31Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it96.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:16ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 32, up 31Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it96.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 6:30ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.1%97% to makeGo for two37.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:38ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.5%97% to makeGo for two48.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:44ODU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.5%97% to makeGo for two65.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:53ODU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:32VT Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.1%97% to makeGo for two3.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:49ODU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:06VT Touchdown, down 25 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick1.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:02ODU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:20VT Touchdown, down 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick0.4%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.6%45% to convert
- Q4 1:56VT Touchdown, down 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two1.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5133% → 34%
Q1 13:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
66.5%
Ian Brandt punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VT 33 , Tucker Holloway returns for 8 yds to the VT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5367% → 66%
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
66.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 6
OWN 37
-5
66.3%
PENALTY Hokies Delay Of Game 5 yards from Hokies37 to Hokies32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+8
66.2%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 50 yds , Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding returns for 8 yds to the ODU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 22 yds · 1:3134% → 34%
VTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2667% → 66%
ODUDrive 5TD7 plays · 93 yds · 2:1334% → 39%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+38
65.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 38 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
65.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 10 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
64.5%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass incomplete short right to Abdul-Rahim Gladding,Na'eem thrown to Hokies00 PENALTY Hokies Illegal Use Of Hands (Burgos,Keyshawn) 6 yards from Hokies12 to Hokies06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FUMBLE9 plays · 89 yds · 5:0962% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7TD8 plays · 97 yds · 2:5341% → 51%
Q2 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+44
59.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 44 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
56.9%
(14:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ODU45 (Copeland,Kemari) PENALTY Hokies Face Mask (Bell,Ben) 15 yards from Hokies49 to Hokies34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
56.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 14 yds to the VT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8INT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0050% → 49%
ODUDrive 9TD10 plays · 88 yds · 3:2553% → 73%
Q2 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+12
46.2%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 12 yds to the ODU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+33
43.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 33 yds to the VT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
41.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Jailen Butler for 18 yds to the VT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 3:4633% → 28%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
31.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 2 yds to the VT 23Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+5
30.8%
PENALTY ODU Delay Of Game (Forrest,Jackson) 5 yards from Hokies30 to Hokies35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
27.7%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding at the ODU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11TD12 plays · 77 yds · 1:4776% → 90%
Q2 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+32
23.0%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Dawson Johnson for 17 yds to the VT 44 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, (15 Yards) to the VT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
19.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Sidney Mbanasor for 4 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+15
20.2%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass incomplete short left to Thomas,Ja'Cory thrown to Hokies25 broken up by Brown-Murray,Isaiah PENALTY Hokies Face Mask (Williams,Thomas) 15 yards from Hokies39 to Hokies24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
10.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 13 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (15 Yards) to the VT 0 (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12FUMBLE9 plays · 15 yds · 0:466% → 5%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 8 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
3.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 6 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
4.6%
Kyron Drones sacked by Javen Gibson for a loss of 9 yards to the VT 40 Kyron Drones fumbled, recovered by ODU Lorenzo McFadden-Pressley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · 26 yds · 1:497% → 8%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
7.0%
Kyron Drones run for 3 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeremy Mack Jr.) to the VT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+12
8.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 12 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+2
8.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 2 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+2
8.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 2 yds to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14FG8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5593% → 94%
VTDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 3 yds · 2:056% → 4%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
5.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ja'Ricous Hairston for 12 yds to the VT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
5.5%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Hawkins,Marcellous rush left for 2 yards gain to the Hokies39 (Forrest,Jackson; Thomas,Keshawn) PENALTY Hokies Holding (Rimac,Tomas) 10 yards from Hokies37 to Hokies27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+2
5.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 2 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 18
OWN 29
-5
4.7%
PENALTY Hokies False Start (Seldon,Cameron) 5 yards from Hokies29 to Hokies24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 23
OWN 24
-5
4.7%
(08:26) PENALTY Hokies False Start (Ricard,Tommy) 5 yards from Hokies24 to Hokies19. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1595% → 96%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
5.4%
(07:36) Shotgun Joseph,Colton rush right for 8 yards gain to the ODU31 (Laws,Emmett) PENALTY ODU Holding (Woudsma,Maarten) 10 yards from ODU23 to ODU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
4.0%
Ian Brandt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VT 23Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
4.0%
Ian Brandt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD3 plays · 77 yds · 0:383% → 9%
ODUDrive 18TD6 plays · 46 yds · 2:3695% → 99%
VTDrive 19TD13 plays · 82 yds · 4:262% → 1%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
1.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 7 yds to the VT 25Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+6
2.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 6 yds to the VT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
2.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 15 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
1.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+7
1.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 7 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+9
1.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Harrison Saint Germain for 9 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
1.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 17 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
1.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+10
1.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 10 yds to the ODU 13Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.2%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:5899% → 100%
Q4 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-10
0.6%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Trequan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Hokies44 (Huisman,Kody; Burgos,Keyshawn) PENALTY ODU Holding (Joyce,Ryan) 10 yards from Hokies47 to ODU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+36
0.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Johnson for 36 yds to the VT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
0.3%
Devin Roche run for 15 yds for a TD Old Dominion Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Roche) to the VT 0 (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21TD9 plays · 58 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
0.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 2 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+15
0.2%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass incomplete short right to Greene,Ayden thrown to Hokies45 PENALTY ODU Face Mask (Watts,Justin) 15 yards from Hokies47 to ODU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
0.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Tucker Holloway for 5 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
0.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 23 yds for a TD Old Dominion Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (TJ Lott) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD12 plays · 54 yds · 2:230% → 3%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
0.2%
PENALTY Hokies False Start (Wimbush,Zeke) 5 yards from Hokies46 to Hokies41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+13
0.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 13 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-1
0.2%
Kyron Drones sacked by Keshawn Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 47Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+10
0.2%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ODU44 (Culbreath,Jahleel, Trinidad,Kris) PENALTY ODU Holding (Watts,Justin) 10 yards from ODU34 to ODU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+21
0.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 21 yds to the ODU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Tyler Mason for 3 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23END OF GAME4 plays · 18 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:44
Trequan Jones run for 11 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q2 0:53
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 13 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (15 Yards) to the VT 0 (Riley Callaghan KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q2 12:38
Maurki James run for 10 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
-7.1