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NCSU

NC State 34 at Wake Forest 24

WAKE
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 11, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:42 · Will Wilson run for 3 yds to the WAKE 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior−20.8Home team on offense+0.4Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:35: CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:19: Robby Ashford pass intercepted Isaiah Shirley return for 41 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:12: Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK) — WAKE win probability +6.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:22: CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 4 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:37: CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 12 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +20.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:42NCSU 4th & 1 at WAKE 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06NCSU 4th & 10 at WAKE 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35NCSU 4th & 1 at WAKE 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−1.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−6.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:57NCSU 4th & 13 at WAKE 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:07WAKE 4th & 11 at NCSU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−5.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:00NCSU 4th & 6 at WAKE 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−7.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:19WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.7
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:18NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:08WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:09WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:31WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−4.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:50WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:19NCSU 4th & 6 at WAKE 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−8.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:54NCSU 4th & 14 at WAKE 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:00WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:40WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 21, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:48WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:19WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:35NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:19NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:12WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:22NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:37NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
28.4%
NC State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 4:3872% → 68%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
28.5%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Jalen Grant) to the NCSU 20Similar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
28.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
28.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+20
29.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 20 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
29.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
29.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
30.1%
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the WAKE 48Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
30.7%
Will Wilson run for 3 yds to the WAKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
30.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the WAKE 42Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
31.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-3
31.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for a loss of 3 yards to the WAKE 45Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
32.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds, downed at the WAKE 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 2:4032% → 39%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
32.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 10Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+3
33.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 3 yds to the WAKE 13Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+9
32.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 9 yds to the WAKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+74
33.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 70 yds to the NCSU 8 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Brody Barnhardt) to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
34.6%
Wake Forest Penalty, False Start (Sterling Berkhalter) to the NCSU 9Similar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
34.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the NCSU 6Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
34.9%
Robby Ashford run for 5 yds to the NCSU 1Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3463% → 62%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
37.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 14 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
38.0%
CJ Bailey run for 10 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
38.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 19 yds to the WAKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
38.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 18 yds to the WAKE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
38.8%
Bailey, CJ rush for loss of 1 yard to the WAKEFOREST15, PENALTY NCSU holding (Carter Jr., Anthony) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+9
39.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 9 yds to the WAKE 15Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+10
40.0%
CJ Bailey run for 10 yds to the WAKE 5Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
42.3%
Will Wilson run for no gain to the WAKE 5Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
38.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5INT TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:0839% → 36%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
40.0%
Robby Ashford run for 13 yds to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.3%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Sterling BerkhalterSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-41
36.1%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Isaiah Shirley return for 41 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5936% → 47%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 8 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
36.8%
Ashford, Robby pass incomplete to Hernandez, Carlos, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Kylany, Devin) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
36.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 7 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
36.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 7 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+42
37.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 42 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
39.1%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the NCSU 19Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
39.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to JaMario Clements for no gain to the NCSU 19Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+5
39.2%
NC State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Sabastian Harsh) to the NCSU 14Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
39.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 6 yds to the NCSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
40.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 7 yds to the NCSU 1Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.5%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:0355% → 51%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
45.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 22Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
45.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+30
45.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 30 yds to the WAKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
44.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for a loss of 4 yards to the WAKE 43Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
46.4%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+1
47.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 1 yd to the WAKE 42Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
48.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:3248% → 55%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.1%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 23Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
48.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 6 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
49.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the WAKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
50.6%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the WAKE 34Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
51.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 5 yds to the WAKE 39Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+26
52.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 26 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
54.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 26 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
54.8%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Chris BarnesSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
55.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 12Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
54.8%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the NCSU 11Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
55.3%
Connor Calvert 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 2:5742% → 47%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 15 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 40Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
58.7%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 39Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+11
60.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
50
+6
56.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the WAKE 44Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+14
56.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 14 yds to the WAKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
55.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 19 yds to the WAKE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
54.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
54.8%
CJ Bailey run for 4 yds to the WAKE 7Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
56.2%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
53.3%
Kanoah Vinesett 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3356% → 55%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
55.7%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Micah Mays Jr.Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
55.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 8 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
55.9%
Demond Claiborne run for no gain to the WAKE 30Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+1
54.7%
Cal Joseph punt for 51 yds , Teddy Hoffmann returns for 1 yd to the NCSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
58.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 8 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3745% → 42%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 25Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
55.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
55.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the NCSU 43Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-3
54.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 40Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+1
57.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 39 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 1 yd to the WAKE 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0158% → 58%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
58.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 3 yds to the WAKE 25Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-1
59.1%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 24Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-10
58.2%
Ashford, Robby rush for 13 yards to the WAKEFOREST37, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Kylany, Devin) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 18
OWN 14
+12
58.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 12 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
57.9%
Cal Joseph punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:3541% → 60%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
58.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 15 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
57.3%
Bailey, CJ pass incomplete to Jackson, Keenan, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference (Prunty, Karon) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSU.Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
56.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds to the WAKE 31Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+9
54.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds to the WAKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
54.5%
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the WAKE 16Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+11
55.1%
Jayden Scott run for 11 yds to the WAKE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
55.4%
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd to the WAKE 4Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Teddy HoffmannSimilar
Q3 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
39.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 4 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0447% → 45%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.3%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the WAKE 27Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
47.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 1 yd to the WAKE 28Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
46.1%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Carlos HernandezSimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
45.1%
Cal Joseph punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 3:0557% → 52%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
43.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
50
+1
39.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the WAKE 49Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-2
40.1%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 49Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+11
43.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 11 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
40.5%
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the WAKE 40Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
40.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan JacksonSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-22
42.1%
CJ Bailey sacked by Braylon Johnson and Mateen Ibirogba for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSU 47 NC State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Justin Joly) to the NCSU 38Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 32
OWN 38
0
47.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 39 yds, downed at the WAKE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1149% → 46%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
49.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 25Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
49.3%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Jaxon MullSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-6
47.4%
Robby Ashford sacked by Travali Price for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 19Similar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 14
OWN 19
+51
46.3%
Cal Joseph punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 40 NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caden Gordon) to the NCSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2355% → 81%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
45.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 31Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
46.1%
Bailey, CJ pass incomplete, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference (Webb Jr., Lardarius) 12 yards to the NCSU43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSU.Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+42
43.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 42 yds to the WAKE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
39.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 4 yds to the WAKE 11Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-1
40.0%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 12Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
19.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 12 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3826% → 23%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.8%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
26.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
25.1%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Carlos HernandezSimilar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+13
23.2%
Cal Joseph punt for 35 yds , Teddy Hoffmann returns for 13 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 5:2180% → 88%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
19.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+15
19.9%
Bailey, CJ pass incomplete to Rogers, Noah, PENALTY WAKEFOREST roughing passer (Bryant, Quincy) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSU.Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
19.0%
Smothers, Hollywood rush for 7 yards to the WAKEFOREST30, PENALTY NCSU holding (Carter Jr., Anthony) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+9
18.8%
Jayden Scott run for 9 yds to the WAKE 38Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+10
18.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 10 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
16.0%
Jayden Scott run for 4 yds to the WAKE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
15.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the WAKE 23Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+7
15.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jayden Scott for 7 yds to the WAKE 16Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-5
14.9%
Bailey, CJ pass complete to Joly, Justin for 6 yards to the WAKEFOREST10, PENALTY NCSU illegal formation 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+1
14.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 1 yd to the WAKE 20Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
11.9%
Kanoah Vinesett 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21INT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:0712% → 12%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.7%
Chris Barnes run for 3 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
11.9%
Ashford, Robby pass incomplete, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+9
11.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jeremiah Melvin for 9 yds to the WAKE 27Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
9.7%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Carlos HernandezSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
9.0%
NC State Penalty, Personal Foul (Sabastian Harsh) to the WAKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
11.8%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Ronnie Royal III return for 4 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 8 yds · 2:0192% → 94%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
8.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
8.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the WAKE 49Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
8.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Terrell AndersonSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+5
8.1%
Wake Forest Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Frank Cusano) to the WAKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
7.5%
Jayden Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 46Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-4
6.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 16
50
+2
7.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
5.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 42 yds, downed at the WAKE 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:034% → 3%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
4.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 4Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 12
OWN 4
0
3.9%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Demond ClaiborneSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+10
3.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 10 yds to the WAKE 14Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+7
3.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 7 yds to the WAKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
3.4%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the WAKE 21Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
3.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
3.2%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Micah Mays Jr.Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
2.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:3597% → 97%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 22Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-1
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 23Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 23
-1
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:37
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 12 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q3 6:22
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 4 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q2 12:12
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com