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UVA

Virginia 31 at NC State 35

NCSU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:04 · Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds , Cam Ross returns for 48 yds to the NCSU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+6.8Home team on offense−2.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +11.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:46: Hollywood Smothers run for 14 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 6:39: CJ Bailey run for 12 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:11: J'Mari Taylor run for 66 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +20.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:45: Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +18.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:37UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.0%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:00NCSU 4th & 1 at UVA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:26UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:20NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:08UVA 4th & 6 at NCSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:04NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:20UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:20UVA 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:29NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−2.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:37UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−3.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−19.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:19NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.8%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:12NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−2.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:37UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:26NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:41UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:23NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:17UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:46NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:39NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:11UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:45NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1537% → 39%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
62.5%
J'Mari Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 26Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
62.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 13 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
62.4%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Twitty,Dakota) 5 yards from UVA39 to UVA34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
62.5%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+6
62.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 6 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+12
62.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 12 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
62.1%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
62.1%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Jahmal EdrineSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
62.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 6 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+39
60.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for 39 yds for a TD NC State Penalty, (Yards) declined (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0361% → 63%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
60.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 12 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
60.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 23 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
61.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+30
63.1%
CJ Bailey run for 30 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3538% → 44%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
62.0%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
62.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 10 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
61.5%
J'Mari Taylor run for 6 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+8
61.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Xavier Brown for 8 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
61.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 5 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
60.9%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Sage EnnisSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+20
61.1%
Noah Vaughn run for 20 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
60.5%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dakota TwittySimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-1
60.5%
Xavier Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 22Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+13
60.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 13 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
56.1%
J'Mari Taylor run for 9 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1458% → 65%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
58.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 8 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
57.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 21 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
58.1%
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+6
57.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 6 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
57.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
57.4%
Will Wilson run for 2 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
58.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
64.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 27 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:5139% → 39%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.3%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
61.1%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Kameron CourtneySimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
61.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Eli Wood for 10 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
60.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 4 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
59.6%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Eli WoodSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
60.1%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+8
61.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 18 , Teddy Hoffmann returns for 8 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5663% → 62%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
62.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 17Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+10
62.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
62.2%
CJ Bailey run for no gain to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+4
61.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds , Cam Ross returns for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 6:0339% → 45%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
60.8%
(10:20) Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass complete short right to Twitty,Dakota caught at UVA47, for 36 yards to the NCSU35 (Richardson,AJ), out of bounds PENALTY UVA Holding (Metcalf,Drake) 10 yards from UVA29 to UVA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+8
60.8%
J'Mari Taylor run for 8 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+5
60.7%
J'Mari Taylor run for 5 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+25
60.8%
Xavier Brown run for 10 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
57.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dillon Newton-Short for 16 yds to the NCSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
56.2%
Noah Vaughn run for 4 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
56.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 4 yds to the NCSU 19Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
56.7%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the NCSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
55.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 7 yds to the NCSU 9Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 3
OPP 9
-2
55.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 11Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-1
56.3%
J'Mari Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 12Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
55.3%
Will Bettridge 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5557% → 55%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
55.4%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+48
54.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds , Cam Ross returns for 48 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4348% → 63%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
52.1%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+1
51.6%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the NCSU 22Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+8
51.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 8 yds to the NCSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
49.4%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the NCSU 10Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
49.2%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the NCSU 6Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
50.0%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the NCSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.3%
Jayden Scott run for 2 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0941% → 58%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
40.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
39.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+13
40.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 13 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
40.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 11 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
40.6%
Jayden Scott run for 3 yds to the UVA 35Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+21
41.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 21 yds to the UVA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
58.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 14 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2248% → 49%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.9%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 11 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.5%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
51.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 4 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
48.5%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dakota TwittySimilar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
51.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:3252% → 73%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+57
52.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 57 yds to the UVA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
57.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the UVA 17Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+6
57.7%
Jayden Scott run for 6 yds to the UVA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
57.6%
Jayden Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 12Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
73.4%
CJ Bailey run for 12 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2332% → 53%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
67.1%
J'Mari Taylor run for 5 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
47.1%
J'Mari Taylor run for 66 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1951% → 75%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
53.6%
Jayden Scott run for 4 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
51.8%
Jayden Scott run for 12 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
54.3%
Jayden Scott run for 3 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
54.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 8 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
54.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
54.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 12 yds to the UVA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
56.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 20 yds to the UVA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:0932% → 33%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+42
68.5%
Chandler Morris run for 42 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
62.2%
Noah Vaughn run for 2 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
62.2%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-5
64.1%
(14:18) PENALTY UVA False Start 5 yards from NCSU31 to NCSU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+6
65.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 6 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
66.6%
Will Bettridge 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4772% → 69%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
71.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
72.3%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
70.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+19
69.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds , Cam Ross returns for 19 yds to the UVA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 50 yds · 5:4634% → 35%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.2%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
67.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 12 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
63.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Xavier Brown for 1 yd to the NCSU 45Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
63.9%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+14
64.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 14 yds to the NCSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
61.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for no gain to the NCSU 28Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
61.9%
Chandler Morris run for 11 yds to the NCSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
60.9%
Noah Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 19Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+9
61.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 9 yds to the NCSU 10Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
63.3%
J'Mari Taylor run for 2 yds to the NCSU 8Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
65.0%
J'Mari Taylor run for no gain to the NCSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 25 yds · 4:1978% → 89%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
77.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 7Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 7
-1
77.5%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 6Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+13
80.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 13 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
83.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 22Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
84.1%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Hollywood SmothersSimilar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+6
83.2%
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+4
83.8%
Will Wilson run for 4 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
87.2%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 29Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+4
87.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
89.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+10
89.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 58 yds , Cam Ross returns for 10 yds to the UVA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:0414% → 24%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
86.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 14 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
84.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
50
+17
79.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 17 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
75.6%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
76.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 1 yd to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+20
81.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 20 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
75.7%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:5995% → 95%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
94.8%
C. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
95.4%
C. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:11
J'Mari Taylor run for 66 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
-20.1
TD · Q3 0:45
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+18.5
TD · Q3 10:46
Hollywood Smothers run for 14 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com