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ECU

East Carolina 17 at NC State 24

NCSU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:41 · Nick Konieczynski 46 Yard Field Goal Missed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Pregame prior+3.7Home team on offense+18.2Garbage-time factor+12.1Score differential+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:03: Wesley Grimes 48 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Nick Konieczynski Kick) — NCSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:21: Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 79 yds for a TD NC State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined (Nick Mazzie KICK) — ECU win probability +5.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:43: Hollywood Smothers 2 Yd Run (Nick Konieczynski Kick) — NCSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:56: Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK) — ECU win probability +9.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:35: C. Bailey takes a knee — NCSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 8:34NCSU 4th & 11 at ECU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:54NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:04ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:46ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:13NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 41, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:14ECU 4th & 4 at NCSU 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:04NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:02ECU 4th & 2 at NCSU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:41NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:57ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 19, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:23NCSU 4th & 14 at ECU 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:32ECU 4th & 7 at NCSU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−5.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:41NCSU 4th & 14 at ECU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−5.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:37ECU 4th & 1 at NCSU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−5.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−11.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:33NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:03NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:21ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:43NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:56ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 6:2084% → 83%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
83.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 11 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
83.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 19 yds to the ECU 39 NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Noah Rogers) to the ECU 49Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
83.6%
Jayden Scott run for no gain to the ECU 49Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
83.5%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
83.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 7 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+5
83.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
83.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 35Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+15
83.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 15 yds to the ECU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
83.0%
Jayden Scott run for 13 yds to the ECU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
82.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
82.8%
NC State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ECU 22Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+11
82.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 11 yds to the ECU 11Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
82.5%
Nick Konieczynski 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5318% → 17%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 5 yds to the ECU 20Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
82.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 6 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
82.5%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to London MontgomerySimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
82.6%
Ryan Leavy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Wesley Grimes at the NCSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:3082% → 81%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
82.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 26Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
81.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
81.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 9 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
82.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 38Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-1
81.6%
Jayden Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 37Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+2
81.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 2 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
80.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4219% → 19%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
81.4%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the ECU 23Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-10
81.4%
(03:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Parker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ECU24 (Harsh,Sabastian; Brown,Sean) PENALTY ECU Holding (Long,Kyle) 10 yards from ECU23 to ECU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 18
OWN 13
-2
81.4%
Jaquaize Pettaway run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 11Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+7
81.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 18Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
81.3%
Ryan Leavy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Wesley Grimes at the NCSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1981% → 83%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
80.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 10 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
81.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 9
50
+5
81.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 5 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+27
80.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 27 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
81.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 6 yds to the ECU 12Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+1
81.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the ECU 11Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
83.0%
CJ Bailey 11 Yd Run (Nick Konieczynski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -23 yds · 1:3717% → 17%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the ECU 34Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-23
82.7%
run for a loss of 23 yards to the ECU 11Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 33
OWN 11
0
83.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for no gain to the ECU 11Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 33
OWN 11
0
83.5%
Ryan Leavy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Wesley Grimes at the ECU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:3583% → 90%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for no gain to the ECU 48Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
89.8%
Wesley Grimes 48 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Nick Konieczynski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1212% → 11%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.4%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
88.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
88.2%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Parker rush left for 12 yards gain to the ECU44 (Fordham,Caden) PENALTY ECU Holding (Smith,Anthony) 10 yards from ECU32 to ECU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
88.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jaquaize PettawaySimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
88.8%
Ryan Leavy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Wesley Grimes at the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2690% → 89%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
90.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 38Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
90.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+3
89.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 3 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+59
89.6%
(08:28) Noonkester,Caden punt 59 yards to the ECU00, Touchback PENALTY NCS Illegal Formation offsetting ECU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
88.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:3712% → 12%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
88.5%
Mike Wright Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 16Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+1
88.7%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the ECU 17Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+33
88.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 18 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jr. Kenny Soares) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
50
+15
87.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 15 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
87.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
88.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 4
OPP 29
0
87.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to London MontgomerySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0393% → 92%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
93.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 8 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
93.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 38Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
93.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Teddy HoffmannSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
92.5%
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd to the NCSU 44Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
92.3%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Terrell AndersonSimilar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
91.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:3211% → 16%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
89.5%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the ECU 14Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
89.7%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ECU 17Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+9
89.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 9 yds to the ECU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
89.9%
Katin Houser sacked by Caden Fordham for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 21Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+79
84.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 79 yds for a TD NC State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13INT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:4483% → 85%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 24Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
82.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 15 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
83.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
84.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 48Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
84.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-20
84.9%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Teagan Wilk return for 20 yds to the NCSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2118% → 16%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
82.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jaquaize PettawaySimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+18
82.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 18 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
81.3%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Gunn Jr.,Marlon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NCS20 (Brown,Sean; Fordham,Caden) PENALTY ECU Holding (Poku,Emmanuel) 10 yards from NCS25 to NCS35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
83.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Desirrio RilesSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+53
84.5%
Nick Mazzie 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:5216% → 16%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.9%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
83.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 14 yds to the ECU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
83.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+6
82.2%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
83.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Payton Mangrum for 3 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
83.4%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Yannick SmithSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+5
83.7%
Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+1
84.4%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the NCSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2186% → 85%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
85.8%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Rogers,Noah) 5 yards from NCS36 to NCS31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-5
85.3%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Peak,Jacarrius) 5 yards from NCS31 to NCS26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+4
85.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
85.2%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+10
84.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
84.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:5715% → 14%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
84.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 3 yds to the ECU 20Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-1
85.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 19Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
85.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Parker JenkinsSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+17
86.6%
Ryan Leavy pass complete to Kieran Davis for 17 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
84.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 4 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
84.2%
(09:20) PENALTY ECU False Start (Weaver,Bryce) 5 yards from ECU40 to ECU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+5
85.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 5 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
84.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Yannick SmithSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-5
85.8%
(08:39) PENALTY ECU False Start (Benton,Josh) 5 yards from ECU40 to ECU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
86.3%
Ryan Leavy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Wesley Grimes at the NCSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:4186% → 95%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
85.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 12 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
85.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 12 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
87.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+6
86.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+13
86.7%
CJ Bailey run for 13 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
87.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 9 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+15
87.5%
(04:39) Bailey,CJ pass incomplete short middle to Joly,Justin thrown to ECU14 broken up by Barker,Jackson PENALTY ECU Roughing The Passer (Wilk,Teagan) 15 yards from ECU30 to ECU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
88.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the ECU 13Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
88.1%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Terrell AndersonSimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+11
87.5%
(03:54) Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete short right to Jackson,Keenan thrown to ECU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ECU Pass Interference (Jean,Jonathan) 11 yard from ECU13 to ECU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.3%
Hollywood Smothers 2 Yd Run (Nick Konieczynski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:366% → 15%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
94.3%
(03:37) Shotgun Houser,Katin pass complete short right to Montgomery,London caught at ECU18, for 3 yards to the ECU31 (Richardson,AJ; Barnhardt,Brody) PENALTY ECU Holding (Smith,Yannick) 10 yards from ECU28 to ECU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+17
94.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 17 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+6
94.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 6 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
94.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to London Montgomery for 8 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
94.0%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
94.4%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+37
94.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 37 yds to the NCSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for no gain to the NCSU 5Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSU 4Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:2488% → 88%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+46
87.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 46 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
89.1%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Smothers,Hollywood rush left for 6 yards gain to the ECU13 (Johnson Jr.,DJ) PENALTY NCS Holding (Hardy,Cody) 10 yards from ECU19 to ECU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+10
89.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 10 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
89.5%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Terrell AndersonSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-4
88.8%
CJ Bailey sacked by Xavier McIver for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 23Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+40
87.9%
Nick Konieczynski 40 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:4312% → 17%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
88.1%
Mike Wright Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 22Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+4
88.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 4 yds to the ECU 18Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+22
89.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 22 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
86.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+39
88.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 39 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
86.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 20Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-5
87.4%
PENALTY ECU False Start (Poku,Emmanuel) 5 yards from NCS20 to NCS25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+9
87.9%
Katin Houser run for 9 yds to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
88.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Desirrio RilesSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
82.6%
Nick Mazzie 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:3889% → 90%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
88.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Teddy Hoffmann for 50 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
90.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 27Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+2
91.4%
CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-4
90.9%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
90.2%
Nick Konieczynski 46 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:0014% → 13%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
86.1%
London Montgomery run for 10 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jyron WaitersSimilar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
85.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 19 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
83.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 8 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
81.0%
London Montgomery run for no gain to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+2
82.8%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
82.8%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
82.3%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass complete short left to Montgomery,London caught at NCS28, for 5 yards to the NCS25 (Johnson,Jamel) PENALTY ECU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Smith,Anthony) 5 yards from NCS30 to NCS35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+17
83.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 17 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
80.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 5 yds to the NCSU 13Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
80.8%
Katin Houser run for 4 yds to the NCSU 9Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
82.1%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the NCSU 9Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-1
87.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:3596% → 96%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
96.4%
C. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-2
96.3%
C. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 14
OWN 6
-3
96.3%
(00:32) PENALTY NCS False Start (Daniels,Dante) 3 yards from NCS06 to NCS03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 3
-1
96.3%
C. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:35
C. Bailey takes a knee
+9.2
TD · Q4 14:56
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
-9
TD · Q3 3:43
Hollywood Smothers 2 Yd Run (Nick Konieczynski Kick)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com