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FSU

Florida State 21 at Florida 40

FLA
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:03 · (13:09) #43 M.Chiumento punt 38 yards to the FLA45 #8 V.Brown III return 0 yards to the FLA45 (#3 E.Joseph)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Pregame prior+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:39: (13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short left to #19 M.Danzy caught at FLA10, for 13 yards to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:39, 1ST DOWN #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #43 M.Chiumento, LS: #32 M.Arnold) — FSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 5:38: (05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #86 T.Livingston caught at FSU06, for 9 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood) — FLA win probability +6.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:47: (09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #89 H.Hansen caught at FSU00, for 3 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:47 #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood) — FLA win probability +12.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:55: (02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 22 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:55, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood) — FLA win probability +10.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:07: (03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short middle to #7 L.McCoy caught at FLA17, for 17 yards to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:07, 1ST DOWN #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #43 M.Chiumento, LS: #32 M.Arnold) — FSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:03FSU 4th & 18 at FSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:25FLA 4th & 3 at FSU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:24FSU 4th & 1 at FLA 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%−0.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:00FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 46, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:17FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:59FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.9%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:28FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:14FSU 4th & 7 at FLA 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:40FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 23, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:38FLA 4th & 4 at FSU 36, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:19FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 28, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:56FLA 4th & 3 at FSU 12, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:39FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:38FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:47FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:55FLA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:56FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4948% → 47%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FSU23 (#88 C.Banks)Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
52.6%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short left to #0 D.Robinson caught at FSU28, for 4 yards to the FSU27 (#5 M.Graham; #43 A.Allen Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
52.7%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos sacked for loss of 10 yards to the FSU17 (#5 M.Graham)Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
53.0%
(13:09) #43 M.Chiumento punt 38 yards to the FLA45 #8 V.Brown III return 0 yards to the FLA45 (#3 E.Joseph)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:2953% → 54%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
53.0%
(13:01) Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 21 yards gain to the FSU34 (#3 E.Joseph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
53.4%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 3 yards gain to the FSU31 (#5 D.Lyons)Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
53.6%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short right to #89 H.Hansen thrown to FSU26 QB hurried by #5 D.Lyons and #15 S.ArnouxSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+19
53.4%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #9 J.Sturdivant caught at FSU34, for 19 yards to the FSU12 (#10 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
53.7%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FSU08 (#90 D.Desir; #7 S.Thompson)Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
53.9%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU05 (#6 D.Jackson Jr.; #90 D.Desir)Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
53.9%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short left to #8 V.Brown III thrown to FSU00Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
54.2%
(09:25) #29 T.Smack field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood), clock 09:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:4646% → 46%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
54.1%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete deep left to #0 D.Robinson caught at FLA41, for 44 yards to the FLA31 (#6 J.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
53.2%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush left for 3 yards gain to the FLA28 (#5 M.Graham), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
53.3%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 M.Danzy rush right for 4 yards gain to the FLA24 (#5 M.Graham; #94 T.Sapp)Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
53.6%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA22 (#0 S.Denson)Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-2
54.0%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FLA24 (#8 A.Chiles), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:2754% → 60%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
54.2%
(07:22) Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FLA27 (#3 E.Joseph; #6 D.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
54.4%
(06:56) Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FLA33 (#6 D.Jackson Jr.; #5 D.Lyons)Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
54.6%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 2 yards gain to the FLA35 (#0 E.Little Jr.; #24 K.Kirkland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
54.7%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #11 A.Mizell caught at FLA43, for 10 yards to the FLA45 (#15 S.Arnoux), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
55.6%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 4 yards gain to the FLA49 (#9 O.Graham Jr.; #10 J.Williams)Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
55.8%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA50 (#93 M.Desir)Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 5
50
+11
55.8%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #20 D.Clark caught at FSU48, for 11 yards to the FSU39 (#0 E.Little Jr.; #19 J.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
56.4%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep right to #9 J.Sturdivant caught at FSU11, for 34 yards to the FSU05, out of bounds at FSU05, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.8%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short right to #7 A.Jackson thrown to FSU00 QB hurried by #7 S.Thompson and #9 O.Graham Jr.Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.8%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Mizell thrown to FSU00Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.2%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #9 J.Sturdivant caught at FSU00, for 5 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:49 #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5741% → 46%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
59.3%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush middle for 12 yards gain to the FSU37 (#29 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
59.0%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short right to #7 L.McCoy caught at FSU43, for 13 yards to the FSU50 (#12 B.Hanks III; #18 B.Thornton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
50
+3
58.6%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 S.White rush left for 3 yards gain to the FLA47 (#0 S.Denson; #8 A.Chiles)Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
58.9%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 S.White rush right for 6 yards gain to the FLA41 (#8 A.Chiles), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
59.1%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA39 fumbled by #1 T.Castellanos at FLA46 recovered by FSU #1 T.Castellanos at FLA47 (#22 K.Asare), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
59.4%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Singleton Jr. rush left for 21 yards gain to the FLA18 (#29 J.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
58.8%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to FLA00 broken up by #6 J.FlowersSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
59.0%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush right for 5 yards gain to the FLA13 (#18 B.Thornton; #2 L.Hayward)Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
54.3%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short left to #19 M.Danzy caught at FLA10, for 13 yards to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:39, 1ST DOWN #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #43 M.Chiumento, LS: #32 M.Arnold)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:5256% → 67%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.8%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 8 yards gain to the FLA33 (#7 S.Thompson)Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
56.8%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 3 yards gain to the FLA36 (#24 K.Kirkland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
56.6%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FLA41 (#7 S.Thompson; #27 A.Barker)Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+15
57.6%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #89 H.Hansen caught at FLA46, for 15 yards to the FSU44 (#93 M.Desir; #19 J.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
58.3%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 9 yards gain to the FSU35 (#20 B.Nichelson) PENALTY FLA Face Mask (#8 V.Brown III) 15 yards from FSU44 to FLA41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+18
56.8%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 18 yards gain to the FSU41 (#19 J.Wilson; #27 A.Barker)Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
58.7%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 5 yards gain to the FSU36 (#97 J.Jenkins)Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
58.5%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Daniels rush left for 2 yards gain to the FSU34 (#28 J.Cryer; #6 D.Jackson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
59.7%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short right to #89 H.Hansen thrown to FSU35 PENALTY FLA Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
60.4%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #11 A.Mizell caught at FSU24, for 13 yards to the FSU21 (#1 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
60.7%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 6 yards gain to the FSU15 (#1 S.Brown; #97 J.Jenkins)Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+4
60.9%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 4 yards gain to the FSU11 (#5 D.Lyons; #24 K.Kirkland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
61.0%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU09 (#31 E.Herring; #90 D.Desir)Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
67.3%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #86 T.Livingston caught at FSU06, for 9 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7FUMBLE
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:2434% → 41%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.2%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short left to #12 J.Lucas caught at FSU21, for 0 yards to the FSU25 (#18 B.Thornton; #43 A.Allen Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
58.0%
No Huddle #1 T.Castellanos rush middle for 16 yards gain to the FSU41 (#5 M.Graham; #18 B.Thornton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
55.8%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short right to #0 D.Robinson caught at FSU46, for 12 yards to the FLA47 (#5 M.Graham; #8 A.Chiles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
55.5%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete deep left to #19 M.Danzy thrown to FLA12 broken up by #12 B.Hanks IIISimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
55.7%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete deep right to #32 O.Kromah thrown to FLA21Similar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
53.4%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos sacked for loss of 6 yards to the FLA26 (#18 B.Thornton), fumble by #1 T.Castellanos recovered by FLA #88 C.Banks at FLA26, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 17
OWN 46
+34
59.3%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete deep right to #7 L.McCoy caught at FLA31, for 34 yards to the FLA20 (#18 B.Thornton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:2062% → 59%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
61.5%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FLA37 (#0 E.Little Jr.; #7 S.Thompson)Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-2
62.6%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway sacked for loss of 4 yards to the FLA33 (#7 S.Thompson, #5 D.Lyons)Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-2
59.8%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway sacked for loss of 4 yards to the FLA29 (#93 M.Desir, #10 J.Williams)Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
58.7%
(13:26) #19 T.Doman punt 71 yards to the FSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0840% → 40%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
59.7%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush left for 9 yards gain to the FSU29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
58.0%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU31 (#15 J.Woods; #88 C.Banks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.4%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Robinson thrown to FSU48 broken up by #18 B.Thornton QB hurried by #5 M.GrahamSimilar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
60.0%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 R.Pittman Jr. rush right for 9 yards gain to the FSU40 (#6 J.Flowers)Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
57.7%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU40 (#5 M.Graham)Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
59.9%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush right for 0 yards to the FSU40 (#5 M.Graham; #18 B.Thornton), out of bounds, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 1:0565% → 78%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
64.6%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 20 yards gain to the FSU20 (#0 E.Little Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
65.6%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 14 yards gain to the FSU06 (#27 A.Barker), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Face Mask (#27 A.Barker) 3 yards from FSU06 to FSU03, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.9%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #89 H.Hansen caught at FSU00, for 3 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:47 #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1125% → 22%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU25 (#24 K.James)Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.9%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos sacked for loss of 5 yards to the FSU20 (#90 B.Bett)Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
77.3%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete short middle to #28 S.Singleton Jr. thrown to FSU19 QB hurried by #18 B.ThorntonSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
78.0%
(08:33) #43 M.Chiumento punt 38 yards to the FLA42 fair catch by #8 V.Brown III at FLA42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 5:2578% → 93%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
77.9%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FLA46 (#6 D.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
78.4%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FLA50 (#24 K.Kirkland; #7 S.Thompson)Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 2
50
+1
78.8%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU49 (#7 S.Thompson; #90 D.Desir)Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+5
78.0%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU48 (#28 J.Cryer; #93 M.Desir) PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FSU49 to FSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
80.6%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU42 (#5 D.Lyons)Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+10
80.8%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 10 yards gain to the FSU32 (#0 E.Little Jr.; #7 S.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
81.9%
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush right for 7 yards gain to the FSU25 (#27 A.Barker), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+3
82.3%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #8 V.Brown III caught at FSU28, for 3 yards to the FSU22 (#0 E.Little Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
93.0%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 22 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:55, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:278% → 7%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.7%
(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 13 yards gain to the FSU38 (#24 K.James; #43 A.Allen Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
91.5%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 12 yards gain to the FSU50 (#22 K.Asare), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
50
+2
91.7%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush right for 2 yards gain to the FLA48 (#22 K.Asare; #33 B.Taylor Jr.)Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+22
92.3%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short right to #19 M.Danzy caught at FLA32, for 22 yards to the FLA26 (#8 A.Chiles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
91.5%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA25 (#88 C.Banks)Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
91.9%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush left for 6 yards gain to the FLA19 (#6 J.Flowers)Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-4
92.5%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush right for 4 yards loss to the FLA23 (#15 J.Woods)Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+42
93.3%
Jake Weinberg 42 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 6:3494% → 99%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
94.4%
PENALTY FLA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#88 C.Banks) 11 yard from FLA23 to FLA12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 21
OWN 12
+8
94.6%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 8 yards gain to the FLA20 (#24 K.Kirkland)Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+5
95.0%
PENALTY FLA False Start (#53 B.Lovett) 5 yards from FLA20 to FLA15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+8
95.1%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 8 yards gain to the FLA23 (#15 S.Arnoux), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
95.5%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Daniels rush right for 0 yards to the FLA23 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+12
95.5%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 12 yards gain to the FLA35 (#15 S.Arnoux), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
96.0%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #11 A.Mizell caught at FLA46, for 23 yards to the FSU42 (#15 S.Arnoux), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
96.7%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Daniels rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FSU43 (#97 J.Jenkins; #28 J.Cryer)Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+6
96.7%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Daniels rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FSU37 (#24 K.Kirkland)Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+1
96.7%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #4 T.Abrams caught at FSU40, for 1 yard to the FSU36 (#5 D.Lyons)Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+54
98.6%
(07:39) #29 T.Smack field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood), clock 07:38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 4:111% → 6%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
98.9%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short right to #13 R.Pittman Jr. caught at FSU26, for 9 yards to the FSU26 (#6 J.Flowers)Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
98.9%
(07:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU29 (#49 J.Wiggins; #97 J.Mbatchou), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.0%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete deep right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to FLA34Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.0%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush left for 4 yards gain to the FSU33, out of bounds at FSU33Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
99.2%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete short left to #18 L.Thomas thrown to FSU38 broken up by #12 B.Hanks III QB hurried by #29 J.RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+5
99.3%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete deep left to #13 R.Pittman Jr. caught at FLA29, for 48 yards to the FLA19 (#12 B.Hanks III) PENALTY FSU Illegal Motion (#1 T.Castellanos) 5 yards from FSU33 to FSU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+18
99.3%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short right to #7 L.McCoy caught at FSU47, for 18 yards to the FSU46 (#2 L.Hayward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.3%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete short left to #27 G.Sawchuk thrown to FSU41Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.3%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short left to #19 M.Danzy caught at FSU50, for 7 yards to the FLA47 (#0 S.Denson)Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
99.3%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FLA44 (#43 A.Allen Jr.; #93 M.Boireau), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
99.3%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short left to #7 L.McCoy caught at FLA41, for 27 yards to the FLA17 (#43 A.Allen Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.9%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short middle to #7 L.McCoy caught at FLA17, for 17 yards to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:07, 1ST DOWN #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #43 M.Chiumento, LS: #32 M.Arnold)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
13 plays · 46 yds · 2:0398% → 99%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
97.8%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 5 yards gain to the FSU41 (#6 D.Jackson Jr.; #93 M.Desir)Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+7
97.8%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 7 yards gain to the FSU34 (#20 B.Nichelson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
97.9%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 15 yards gain to the FSU19 (#56 K.Sampson; #19 J.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
98.3%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 2 yards gain to the FSU17 (#3 E.Joseph)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+5
98.3%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 5 yards gain to the FSU12 (#1 S.Brown)Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+16
98.3%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 12 yards gain (6) to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:48 PENALTY FLA Holding (#86 T.Livingston) 10 yards from FSU06 to FSU16Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+4
98.4%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 4 yards gain to the FSU12 (#15 S.Arnoux)Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+12
99.4%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 12 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:56, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Smack kick attempt failed (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:481% → 1%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Williams thrown to FSU41Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short left to #7 L.McCoy caught at FSU33, for 8 yards to the FSU33 (#2 L.Hayward)Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
99.3%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short left to #27 G.Sawchuk caught at FSU35, for 7 yards to the FSU40 (#8 A.Chiles), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.4%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush right for 11 yards gain to the FLA49, out of bounds at FLA49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
99.4%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush left for 17 yards gain to the FLA32, out of bounds at FLA32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-48
99.2%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass intercepted by #12 B.Hanks III at FLA01 #12 B.Hanks III return 48 yards to the FLA49, out of bounds at FLA49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:47
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #89 H.Hansen caught at FSU00, for 3 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:47 #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood)
+12.3
TD · Q3 2:55
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 22 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:55, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood)
+10.7
TD · Q2 5:38
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #86 T.Livingston caught at FSU06, for 9 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com