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TENN

Tennessee 31 at Florida 11

FLA
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:03 · (11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 0 yards to the FLA46 (#6 J.McMurray; #22 J.Telander), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Home team on offense−13.2Score differential−7.2Garbage-time factor−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Pregame prior−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:28: (11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #0 E.Davis caught at FLA25, for 23 yards to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:28, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +1.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:08: (13:08) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:08 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +11.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:14: (09:13) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:14 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +6.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Max Gilbert 26 Yd Field Goal — FLA win probability +0.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:15: (08:17) Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep right to #13 J.Baugh caught at UT 09, for 33 yards to the UT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:15, 1ST DOWN #86 T.Livingston pass attempt Successful — FLA win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:46FLA 4th & 20 at FLA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:08FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:07TENN 4th & 1 at FLA 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−1.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−6.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:03FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.1%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:15FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:33TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 46, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:15FLA 4th & 18 at TENN 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:40FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 9, down 31
    Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:04TENN 4th & 17 at FLA 42, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:04FLA 4th & 8 at TENN 28, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:44TENN 4th & 9 at FLA 31, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:28TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:08TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:15FLA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1354% → 55%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.8%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at UT 31, for 12 yards to the UT 37 (#14 J.Castell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
45.9%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UT 39 (#88 C.Banks; #90 B.Bett)Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
45.9%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at UT 49, for 10 yards to the UT 49 (#0 S.Denson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
45.9%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FLA46 (#0 S.Denson)Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
46.0%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FLA42 (#5 M.Graham; #43 A.Allen Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+9
46.0%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 9 yards gain to the FLA33 (#43 A.Allen Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
46.0%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FLA27 (#29 J.Robinson)Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+4
46.0%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FLA23 (#90 B.Bett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
44.9%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #0 E.Davis caught at FLA25, for 23 yards to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:28, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:2645% → 44%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
45.3%
(11:28) Shotgun #2 D.Lagway sacked for loss of 4 yards to the FLA21 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
45.2%
(10:47) Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #13 J.Baugh caught at FLA31, for 42 yards to the UT 37 (#22 J.Telander), out of bounds PENALTY FLA Holding (#58 A.Barber) 10 yards from FLA21 to FLA11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+2
45.1%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA13 (#7 A.Carter)Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+2
44.7%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #13 J.Baugh caught at FLA07, for 2 yards to the FLA15 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
44.3%
(08:50) #19 T.Doman punt 45 yards to the UT 40 fair catch by #19 D.Morris at UT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:1159% → 60%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
41.2%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at FLA41, for 19 yards to the FLA41, out of bounds at FLA41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
41.2%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA40 (#8 A.Chiles; #97 J.Mbatchou)Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+14
40.8%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at FLA30, for 14 yards to the FLA26 (#43 A.Allen Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
40.4%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Matthews rush right for 20 yards gain to the FLA06 (#14 J.Castell; #28 D.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
40.3%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FLA03 (#5 M.Graham; #97 J.Mbatchou)Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
39.7%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA01 (#14 J.Castell; #24 K.James)Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.7%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:33 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1741% → 40%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.0%
(05:30) Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FLA28 (#22 J.Telander; #13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
40.7%
(04:55) Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FLA26 (#42 T.West)Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
40.3%
(04:19) Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short middle to #8 V.Brown III thrown to FLA45Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
40.2%
(04:13) #19 T.Doman punt 41 yards to the UT 33 fair catch by at UT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:4861% → 77%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
39.0%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #4 M.Matthews caught at UT 36, for 14 yards to the UT 47 (#6 J.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
38.4%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #4 M.Matthews caught at FLA42, for 21 yards to the FLA32 (#0 S.Denson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
37.9%
(03:04) Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FLA28 (#29 J.Robinson)Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+6
37.4%
(02:33) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #3 J.Van Dorselaer caught at FLA27, for 6 yards to the FLA22 (#22 K.Asare; #25 C.McClain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
37.0%
(01:58) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at FLA23, for 7 yards to the FLA15 (#94 T.Sapp)Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
36.7%
(01:29) Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 0 yards to the FLA15 (#22 K.Asare; #8 A.Chiles)Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+2
36.6%
(00:57) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA13 (#43 A.Allen Jr.; #97 J.Mbatchou)Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+1
36.5%
(00:07) #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA12 (#91 J.McCloud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
35.7%
(14:58) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush left for 5 yards gain to the FLA07 (#8 A.Chiles; #15 J.Woods)Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
35.3%
(14:11) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FLA03 (#14 J.Castell; #97 J.Mbatchou)Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
34.8%
(13:28) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA01 (#97 J.Mbatchou), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.4%
(13:08) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:08 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5828% → 27%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.5%
(13:07) Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FLA31 (#18 T.Weathersby; #33 B.Bolton)Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
27.4%
(12:33) Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FLA37 (#18 T.Weathersby; #2 A.Turrentine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
27.1%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #9 J.Sturdivant caught at FLA34, for 2 yards to the FLA39 (#33 B.Bolton), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
26.9%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Baugh thrown to FLA43Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+7
26.4%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FLA46 (#15 E.Farooq)Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
26.9%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 0 yards to the FLA46 (#6 J.McMurray; #22 J.Telander), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:4179% → 86%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
21.1%
(11:00) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA45 (#6 J.Flowers)Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-8
20.3%
(10:41) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UT 47 (#15 J.Woods), fumble by #6 J.Aguilar recovered by UT #6 J.Aguilar at UT 47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+52
20.6%
(09:57) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush right for 52 yards gain to the FLA01 (#28 D.Moore), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.1%
(09:13) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:14 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4614% → 12%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
13.6%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #8 V.Brown III caught at FLA20, for 2 yards loss to the FLA23 (#7 A.Carter)Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
12.7%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #8 V.Brown III caught at FLA28, for 12 yards to the FLA35 (#10 K.Beasley; #22 J.Telander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
12.9%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #8 V.Brown III caught at FLA35, for 4 yards to the FLA39 (#7 A.Carter)Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
12.3%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short left to #11 A.Mizell thrown to UT 42 broken up by #4 T.Redmond QB hurried by #31 C.HerringSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
12.2%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Mizell thrown to UT 46 QB hurried by #6 J.McMurraySimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
11.9%
(07:18) #19 T.Doman punt 28 yards to the UT 33, out of bounds at UT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2687% → 88%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
13.3%
(07:13) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at UT 33, for 5 yards to the UT 38 (#8 A.Chiles)Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+8
12.8%
(06:50) Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UT 46 (#5 M.Graham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
12.3%
(06:27) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Brazzell II thrown to FLA46 QB hurried by #2 L.HaywardSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
12.3%
(06:21) Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FLA49 (#5 M.Graham; #15 J.Woods)Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
11.6%
(05:41) Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 0 yards to the FLA49 (#88 C.Banks; #24 K.James)Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+5
12.0%
PENALTY UT Delay Of Game (#6 J.Aguilar) 5 yards from FLA49 to UT 46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+1
11.7%
(04:39) #98 J.Ross punt 49 yards to the FLA05 #8 V.Brown III return 1 yard to the FLA06, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:0010% → 6%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
9.9%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #86 T.Livingston caught at FLA04, for 14 yards to the FLA20 (#15 E.Farooq), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
12.7%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 16 yards gain to the FLA36 (#15 E.Farooq), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
10.2%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FLA42 (#17 E.Utley; #29 J.Ross)Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
9.2%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #86 T.Livingston caught at FLA41, for 8 yards to the FLA50 (#13 E.Spillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
50
+38
10.0%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 38 yards gain to the UT 12 (#8 C.Hood; #15 E.Farooq), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
9.1%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UT 13 (#7 A.Carter; #5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
8.1%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Sturdivant thrown to UT 01 QB hurried by #51 J.MoiSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 11
OPP 13
-7
5.8%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UT 20 (#5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+38
5.6%
(01:16) #29 T.Smack field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood), clock 01:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:0691% → 93%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
8.7%
(01:11) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UT 29 (#39 B.Slade; #90 B.Bett)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
7.5%
(00:54) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush for 2 yards gain to the UT 31 (#22 K.Asare; #29 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
7.4%
(00:41) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short to #14 B.Staley thrown to UT 31 PENALTY FLA Personal Foul (#90 B.Bett) 15 yards from UT 31 to UT 46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
7.0%
(00:32) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at FLA48, for 15 yards to the FLA39 (#29 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
6.7%
(00:32) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short middle to #0 E.Davis thrown to FLA39Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+28
6.5%
(00:26) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 28 yards gain to the FLA11 (#15 J.Woods), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
5.7%
(00:23) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA10 (#8 A.Chiles)Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
5.2%
(00:08) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA08 (#95 J.Lyons)Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+26
6.6%
Max Gilbert 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:066% → 6%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
5.8%
(14:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FLA05 (#22 J.Telander)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+4
6.5%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FLA09 (#13 E.Spillman; #22 J.Telander)Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
6.4%
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short right to #13 J.Baugh thrown to FLA15 QB hurried by #7 A.Carter PENALTY FLA Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
6.4%
(13:45) #19 T.Doman punt 42 yards to the UT 49 fair catch by #19 D.Morris at UT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:2795% → 96%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
5.3%
(13:39) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 16 yards gain to the FLA35 (#28 D.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
4.9%
(12:50) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #14 B.Staley caught at FLA35, for 0 yards to the FLA35 (#9 D.Stubbs) PENALTY UT Holding (#17 C.Brazzell II) 10 yards from FLA35 to FLA45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+5
4.7%
PENALTY UT False Start (#53 L.Heard) 5 yards from FLA45 to FLA50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 25
50
+3
4.4%
(12:05) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 3 yards gain to the FLA47 (#5 M.Graham; #29 J.Robinson)Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 22
OPP 47
+3
4.2%
(11:32) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FLA44 (#94 T.Sapp; #29 J.Robinson)Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+2
4.1%
(11:04) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA42 (#29 J.Robinson; #88 C.Banks)Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
4.2%
(10:12) #98 J.Ross punt 41 yards to the FLA01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 7:513% → 1%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
2.6%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 7 yards gain to the FLA08 (#15 E.Farooq)Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+5
2.4%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FLA13 (#13 E.Spillman; #22 J.Telander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
2.3%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 11 yards gain to the FLA24 (#7 A.Carter; #22 J.Telander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
2.3%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FLA27 (#2 A.Turrentine)Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
1.9%
(07:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 9 yards gain to the FLA36 (#22 J.Telander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
1.8%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Daniels rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA38 (#18 T.Weathersby; #51 J.Moi)Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
1.6%
PENALTY FLA False Start (#70 D.George Jr.) 5 yards from FLA38 to FLA33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+10
1.4%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #89 H.Hansen caught at FLA43, for 10 yards to the FLA43 (#22 J.Telander; #33 B.Bolton)Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
1.4%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Daniels rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FLA50 (#90 D.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
50
+20
1.4%
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #9 J.Sturdivant caught at UT 35, for 20 yards to the UT 30 (#8 C.Hood), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
1.4%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 3 yards loss to the UT 33 (#42 T.West)Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+1
1.2%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 1 yard gain to the UT 32 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+4
1.1%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UT 28 (#8 C.Hood)Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
1.0%
(02:08) #29 T.Smack field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #19 T.Doman, LS: #42 R.Underwood), clock 02:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15MISSED FG
15 plays · 43 yds · 5:1599% → 99%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.4%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Brazzell II thrown to UT 39 QB hurried by #24 K.JamesSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.4%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush right for 2 yards gain to the UT 27 (#24 K.James; #5 M.Graham)Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
1.4%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at UT 34, for 15 yards to the UT 42 (#5 M.Graham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
1.2%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UT 48 (#8 A.Chiles; #9 D.Stubbs)Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
0.8%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FLA49 (#22 K.Asare; #43 A.Allen Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
0.7%
(14:59) #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA47 (#24 K.James; #90 B.Bett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.7%
(14:24) #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete deep right to #17 C.Brazzell II thrown to FLA00Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
0.6%
(14:17) #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #7 D.Brame caught at UT 50, for 9 yards to the FLA38 (#2 L.Hayward; #9 D.Stubbs)Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
0.6%
(13:44) #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FLA32 (#8 A.Chiles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.6%
(13:16) #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Brame thrown to FLA35Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
0.6%
(13:15) #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FLA34 (#5 M.Graham; #15 J.Woods)Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+2
0.5%
(12:29) #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #5 R.Jackson caught at FLA32, for 2 yards to the FLA32 (#12 B.Hanks III)Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+50
0.6%
(11:47) #90 M.Gilbert field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady), clock 11:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:200% → 3%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
0.4%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FLA42 (#51 J.Moi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.4%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 3 yards gain to the FLA45 (#22 J.Telander; #31 C.Herring)Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
0.3%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UT 49 (#10 K.Beasley)Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
0.3%
(09:52) #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UT 47 (#8 C.Hood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
0.3%
(09:24) Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #89 H.Hansen caught at UT 39, for 13 yards to the UT 34, out of bounds at UT 34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
0.3%
(08:54) Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UT 33 (#7 A.Carter; #5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+33
2.6%
(08:17) Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep right to #13 J.Baugh caught at UT 09, for 33 yards to the UT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:15, 1ST DOWN #86 T.Livingston pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17END OF GAME
17 plays · 57 yds · 7:4598% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.8%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #4 M.Matthews caught at UT 23, for 10 yards to the UT 35 (#8 A.Chiles; #43 A.Allen Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.7%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UT 40 (#15 J.Woods; #96 T.Brown)Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
1.5%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UT 44 (#91 J.McCloud; #96 T.Brown)Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
1.3%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UT 46 (#8 A.Chiles; #29 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
1.1%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UT 48 (#97 J.Mbatchou; #49 J.Wiggins)Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
1.0%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #3 J.Van Dorselaer caught at UT 48, for 7 yards to the FLA45 (#0 S.Denson)Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
0.9%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FLA39 (#94 T.Sapp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
0.8%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FLA34 (#95 J.Lyons)Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
0.7%
(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush left for 7 yards gain to the FLA27 (#15 J.Woods; #43 A.Allen Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
0.7%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA26 (#91 J.McCloud; #94 T.Sapp)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+15
0.3%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #0 E.Davis caught at FLA28, for 15 yards to the FLA11 (#29 J.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
0.3%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FLA09 (#15 J.Woods)Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-4
0.3%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 D.Morris rush middle for 4 yards loss to the FLA13 (#91 J.McCloud; #94 T.Sapp)Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+5
0.3%
PENALTY UT False Start (#53 L.Heard) 5 yards from FLA13 to FLA18. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:08
(13:08) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:08 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
-11.4
TD · Q2 9:14
(09:13) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:14 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
-6.4
TD · Q4 8:15
(08:17) Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep right to #13 J.Baugh caught at UT 09, for 33 yards to the UT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:15, 1ST DOWN #86 T.Livingston pass attempt Successful
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com