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MSST

Mississippi State 21 at Florida 23

FLA
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:00 · Blake Shapen punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+8.8Home team on offense+4.8Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:15: Jadan Baugh run for 19 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +3.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:08: Trey Smack 54 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +3.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:41: KD Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +10.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:57: Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +18.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:00: Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +33.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:55FLA 4th & 7 at MSST 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:46MSST 4th & 14 at FLA 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:55FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 17, down 4
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:36MSST 4th & 2 at FLA 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:44MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:08FLA 4th & 24 at MSST 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:36MSST 4th & 16 at FLA 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:51FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:39MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:00MSST 4th & 7 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:49FLA 4th & 14 at MSST 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:42MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 40, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:38FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−5.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:18MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:15FLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:41FLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:57MSST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:00MSST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3523% → 25%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.8%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+48
76.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 48 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
76.4%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the FLA 15Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
76.3%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the FLA 13Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+7
76.2%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
76.0%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the FLA 2Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
75.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q1 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.2%
Kamario Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:1575% → 75%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
75.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 20 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
75.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 6 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+10
75.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 10 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
75.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
74.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+8
74.7%
DJ Lagway run for 8 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
74.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 10 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Amir JacksonSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Aidan MizellSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.0%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q1 8:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
74.7%
Trey Smack 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:5926% → 27%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.4%
Xavier Gayten run for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
74.3%
Xavier Gayten run for 10 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
73.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+14
73.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 14 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
73.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
73.1%
Xavier Gayten run for 2 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-6
73.0%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 45Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
73.5%
Nathan Tiyce punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5073% → 72%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
73.0%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Jones,Caden) 5 yards from UFL10 to UFL05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+12
72.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 12 yds to the FLA 17Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
72.8%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
72.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
72.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:1028% → 29%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
72.3%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 41Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
72.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
50
+8
71.6%
Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
71.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
71.5%
Kamario Taylor run for 3 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Brenen Thompson) to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
71.2%
Kamario Taylor run for 6 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+2
70.7%
Kamario Taylor run for 2 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
70.7%
Kamario Taylor run for no gain to the FLA 31Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
71.2%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the FLA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:1071% → 75%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
71.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 11 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
72.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 4 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
72.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the MSST 49Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+12
71.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
72.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 18 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
75.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 19 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1826% → 25%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
73.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 2 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
74.0%
Blake Shapen sacked by Brendan Bett for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 24Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
74.9%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 54 yds , Vernell Brown III returns for no gain to the FLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8INT
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:3873% → 75%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+50
73.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 50 yds to the MSST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-29
75.1%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Brylan Lanier return for 29 yds to the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:5727% → 30%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
73.2%
Brenen Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 32Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+15
73.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 15 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
71.9%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 7
50
+16
71.7%
Davon Booth run for 16 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
70.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 15 yds to the FLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
70.3%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the FLA 15Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-1
70.1%
Xavier Gayten run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 16 Xavier Gayten fumbled, recovered by FLA Jayden WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 5:2073% → 76%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
72.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
73.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 12 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
74.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 17 yds Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eugene Wilson III) to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 3
OWN 47
+2
74.7%
DJ Lagway run for 2 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
74.7%
KD Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
74.9%
KD Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+18
74.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Amir Jackson for 18 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
75.2%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
75.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the MSST 18Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+3
74.2%
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 4
OPP 15
-5
72.9%
PENALTY UFL Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU15 to MSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 9
OPP 20
-15
72.5%
(03:15) Smack,Trey field goal attempt from 39 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: Doman,Tommy, LS: Underwood,Rocco), clock 03:13 PENALTY UFL Personal Foul (George Jr.,Damieon) 15 yards from MSU20 to MSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 24
OPP 35
+54
76.3%
Trey Smack 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 1:2425% → 24%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.1%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
73.9%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+47
73.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 47 yds to the FLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
70.0%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the FLA 17Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-1
70.1%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 18Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-5
72.9%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Owens,Zack) 5 yards from UFL18 to UFL23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 16
OPP 23
0
74.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jaron GloverSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 16
OPP 23
+41
76.1%
Kyle Ferrie 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:1274% → 75%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
74.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+8
73.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 8 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
74.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+7
75.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 7 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
75.1%
DJ Lagway run for 6 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
74.8%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Brylan Lanier return for no gain to the MSST 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:1227% → 26%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
73.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-9
73.8%
Blake Shapen sacked by Kamran James for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4778% → 76%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.6%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan BaughSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
77.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas WilsonSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
76.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0725% → 23%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.4%
(13:48) PENALTY MSU Illegal Shift 5 yards from MSU25 to MSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
75.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 3 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
75.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 3 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+8
76.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 8 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
76.7%
(11:51) Pulliam,Ethan punt 65 yards to the UFL07 PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from MSU28 to MSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
77.1%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:0977% → 78%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
77.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
77.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 12 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
79.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 18 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
79.6%
DJ Lagway sacked by Isaac Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
78.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for no gain to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 14
OPP 42
0
77.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:1325% → 25%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
75.3%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 12Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+6
75.5%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 18Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+13
76.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 13 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
74.5%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+9
72.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 9 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
72.1%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 43Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 14
OWN 43
-7
74.8%
Blake Shapen sacked by Kofi Asare for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 36Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 21
OWN 36
+14
75.9%
Davon Booth run for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 7
50
0
74.8%
Blake Shapen punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 5:1577% → 94%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
77.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+13
76.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 13 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
79.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
79.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
81.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Vernell Brown IIISimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+9
80.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 9 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
82.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 19 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
83.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to TJ Abrams for 26 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
83.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the MSST 3Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.6%
KD Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 1Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.8%
KD Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
Q4 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
94.0%
PENALTY UFL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU03 to MSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3710% → 29%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
90.0%
Xavier Gayten run for 12 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+46
90.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 46 yds to the FLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
89.3%
Xavier Gayten run for 1 yd to the FLA 6Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
89.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 4 yds to the FLA 2Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.3%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:5484% → 90%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 8 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
85.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
85.9%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Lagway,DJ pass incomplete short right to Jackson,Amir thrown to MSU46 PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (Tillman,Zakari) 15 yards from UFL36 to MSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
87.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
87.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+15
86.9%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Lagway,DJ pass incomplete short left to Abrams,TJ thrown to MSU40 QB hurried by Tillman,Zakari PENALTY MSU Roughing The Passer (Tillman,Zakari) 15 yards from MSU46 to MSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
88.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-14
88.4%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Lagway,DJ pass incomplete short left to Wilson,Dallas thrown to MSU19 PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Wilson,Dallas) 14 yards from MSU30 to MSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 23
OPP 44
-1
87.3%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 24
OPP 45
+10
86.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 10 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+53
89.7%
Trey Smack 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3610% → 42%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
89.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 20 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
89.3%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-2
89.9%
Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the FLA 44 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ethan Pulliam) to the MSST 46Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+6
92.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+16
94.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 16 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
91.9%
PENALTY MSU False Start 5 yards from UFL44 to UFL49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+11
92.3%
Davon Booth run for 11 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
91.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+29
92.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 29 yds to the FLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.8%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the FLA 8Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ayden WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
91.8%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete short left to Williams,Ayden thrown to UFL00 PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Robinson,Jaden) 6 yards from UFL08 to UFL02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ayden WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.9%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:2280% → 76%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
80.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-7
81.6%
DJ Lagway sacked by Brylan Lanier for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
76.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23INT
10 plays · 43 yds · 1:1136% → 40%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
64.0%
Blake Shapen run for 18 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
61.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 1 yd to the MSST 47Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
62.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+10
66.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 10 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
60.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+8
60.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 8 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
60.1%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the FLA 29Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
60.1%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Michai Boireau return for 5 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
60.1%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Michai Boireau return for 5 yds to the FLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
89.6%
D. Lagway takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:00
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-33.5
TD · Q4 11:57
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-18.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com