MSST
Mississippi State 21 at Florida 23
FLA2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · D. Lagway takes a knee
01
FLA has the ball
+16
02
Blowout context favors the offense
+10
03
Market gave FLA a 75% pregame chance
+2
04
0:00 left in regulation
−1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:53
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 31
-1.8
Q1 14:28
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 48 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST down
-1.0
Q1 13:53
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the FLA 15
-2.3
Q1 13:31
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the FLA 13
0.0
Q1 13:10
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:47
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the FLA 2
0.0
Q1 12:24
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen Thompson
-0.3
Q1 12:18
Kamario Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-14.8
Q1 12:18
Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 63 yds
+2.2
Q1 12:10
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 20 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down
+2.2
Q1 11:51
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 6 yds to the MSST 39
+1.9
Q1 11:23
Jadan Baugh run for 10 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST down
+1.0
Q1 10:57
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the MSST 25
0.0
Q1 10:25
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas Wilson
0.0
Q1 10:17
DJ Lagway run for 8 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 9:39
Jadan Baugh run for 10 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q1 9:05
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Amir Jackson
+0.1
Q1 9:01
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Aidan Mizell
0.0
Q1 8:57
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden Hansen
-0.6
Q1 8:55
Trey Smack 24 yd FG GOOD
+8.5
Q1 8:55
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.0
Q1 8:45
Xavier Gayten run for 3 yds to the MSST 28
-3.5
Q1 8:29
Xavier Gayten run for 10 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q1 8:09
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seydou Traore
-1.1
Q1 7:57
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the MSST 45
0.0
Q1 7:32
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 14 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q1 7:04
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen Thompson
-0.4
Q1 6:56
Xavier Gayten run for 2 yds to the FLA 39
0.0
Q1 6:20
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 45
-1.2
Q1 5:46
Nathan Tiyce punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 10
+0.5
Q1 5:45
PENALTY UFL False Start (Jones,Caden) 5 yards from UFL10 to UFL05. NO PLAY.
+5.1
Q1 5:33
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 12 yds to the FLA 17
0.0
Q1 5:14
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas Wilson
0.0
Q1 5:06
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas Wilson
0.0
Q1 4:55
Tommy Doman punt for 43 yds
0.0
Q1 4:46
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 41
-4.6
Q1 4:16
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 3:55
Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the FLA 42
-0.6
Q1 3:41
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen Thompson
-0.1
Q1 3:33
Kamario Taylor run for 3 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Brenen Thompson) to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:08
Kamario Taylor run for 6 yds to the FLA 33
0.0
Q1 2:45
Kamario Taylor run for 2 yds to the FLA 31
0.0
Q1 2:16
Kamario Taylor run for no gain to the FLA 31
-0.3
Q1 1:36
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the FLA 31
0.0
Q1 1:25
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 11 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST down
+5.2
Q1 1:03
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 4 yds to the FLA 46
+0.6
Q1 0:26
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the MSST 49
-0.2
Q1 0:00
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q2 14:41
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 18 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST down
+1.1
Q2 14:15
Jadan Baugh run for 19 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+10.4
Q2 14:15
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.3
Q2 14:02
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 3 yds to the MSST 28
-2.2
Q2 13:38
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 2 yds to the MSST 30
0.0
Q2 13:21
Blake Shapen sacked by Brendan Bett for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 24
0.0
Q2 12:44
Ethan Pulliam punt for 54 yds , Vernell Brown III returns for no gain to the FLA 22
0.0
Q2 12:27
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 50 yds to the MSST 28 for a 1ST down
+2.2
Q2 11:49
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Brylan Lanier return for 29 yds to the MSST 34
+1.2
Q2 11:36
Brenen Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 32
-3.6
Q2 10:57
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 15 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:38
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
-1.7
Q2 10:21
Davon Booth run for 16 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 9:59
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 15 yds to the FLA 19 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q2 9:22
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the FLA 15
0.0
Q2 8:39
Xavier Gayten run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 16 Xavier Gayten fumbled, recovered by FLA Jayden Woods
0.0
Q2 8:28
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST down
+4.6
Q2 7:52
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 12 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q2 7:24
Jadan Baugh run for 17 yds Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eugene Wilson III) to the FLA 47
+0.5
Q2 6:54
DJ Lagway run for 2 yds to the FLA 49
+0.3
Q2 6:31
KD Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:06
KD Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 39
+0.2
Q2 5:29
DJ Lagway pass complete to Amir Jackson for 18 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 5:08
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael Sturdivant
0.0
Q2 5:08
Timeout Florida, clock 05:08
-0.6
Q2 4:58
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the MSST 18
0.0
Q2 4:15
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the MSST 15
-0.2
Q2 3:36
PENALTY UFL Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU15 to MSU20. NO PLAY.
-0.6
Q2 3:13
(03:15) Smack,Trey field goal attempt from 39 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: Doman,Tommy, LS: Underwood,Rocco), clock 03:13 PENALTY UFL Personal Foul (George Jr.,Damieon) 15 yards from MSU20 to MSU35. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 3:08
Trey Smack 54 yd FG GOOD
+6.4
Q2 3:08
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q2 3:00
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 31
-2.6
Q2 2:34
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 2:10
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 47 yds to the FLA 17 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 2:00
Timeout Florida, clock 02:00
-1.9
Q2 1:51
Davon Booth run for no gain to the FLA 17
0.0
Q2 1:51
Timeout Florida, clock 01:51
0.0
Q2 1:46
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 18
0.0
Q2 1:46
Timeout Florida, clock 01:46
0.0
Q2 1:46
PENALTY MSU False Start (Owens,Zack) 5 yards from UFL18 to UFL23. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 1:40
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jaron Glover
0.0
Q2 1:36
Kyle Ferrie 41 yd FG MISSED
+0.6
Q2 1:29
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the FLA 25
+3.8
Q2 1:07
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 8 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:50
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the FLA 40
+0.4
Q2 0:35
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 7 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 0:30
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden Hansen
+0.4
Q2 0:21
DJ Lagway run for 6 yds to the MSST 47
-0.7
Q2 0:17
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Brylan Lanier return for no gain to the MSST 43
-0.2
Q2 0:12
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seydou Traore
-4.6
Q2 0:00
Blake Shapen sacked by Kamran James for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 34
0.0
Q3 14:45
Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 14:38
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan Baugh
+4.4
Q3 14:30
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 31
0.0
Q3 13:58
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas Wilson
0.0
Q3 13:51
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 25
-0.4
Q3 13:46
(13:48) PENALTY MSU Illegal Shift 5 yards from MSU25 to MSU20. NO PLAY.
-4.3
Q3 13:20
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 3 yds to the MSST 23
0.0
Q3 12:42
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 3 yds to the MSST 20
-0.1
Q3 12:20
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 8 yds to the MSST 28
0.0
Q3 11:48
(11:51) Pulliam,Ethan punt 65 yards to the UFL07 PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from MSU28 to MSU23. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 11:39
Ethan Pulliam punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 28
0.0
Q3 11:32
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 32
+5.2
Q3 10:53
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 12 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 10:26
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 18 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q3 9:48
DJ Lagway sacked by Isaac Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 42
+0.5
Q3 8:57
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for no gain to the MSST 42
0.0
Q3 8:23
Tommy Doman punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 13
-0.2
Q3 8:13
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 12
-6.2
Q3 7:45
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 18
0.0
Q3 7:16
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 13 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:00
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the MSST 38
0.0
Q3 6:31
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 9 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q3 6:02
Davon Booth run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 43
-0.8
Q3 5:30
Blake Shapen sacked by Kofi Asare for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 36
+0.7
Q3 4:46
Davon Booth run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line
+0.2
Q3 4:00
Blake Shapen punt for 43 yds
-1.8
Q3 3:56
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas Wilson
+7.6
Q3 3:48
Jadan Baugh run for 13 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:05
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q3 2:28
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 37
0.0
Q3 1:52
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Vernell Brown III
+0.3
Q3 1:40
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 9 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:00
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 19 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 0:00
DJ Lagway pass complete to TJ Abrams for 26 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q4 14:54
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the MSST 3
0.0
Q4 14:21
KD Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 1
-0.1
Q4 13:41
KD Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+12.6
Q4 13:41
PENALTY UFL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU03 to MSU08. NO PLAY.
-12.6
Q4 13:41
Trey Smack kickoff for 58 yds
+12.4
Q4 13:34
Xavier Gayten run for 12 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down
-4.0
Q4 12:57
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 46 yds to the FLA 7 for a 1ST down
+1.6
Q4 12:46
Xavier Gayten run for 1 yd to the FLA 6
-0.3
Q4 12:05
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 4 yds to the FLA 2
+0.1
Q4 11:57
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-16.8
Q4 11:57
Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.4
Q4 11:43
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 8 yds to the FLA 33
+6.1
Q4 11:07
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down
+1.1
Q4 10:37
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Lagway,DJ pass incomplete short right to Jackson,Amir thrown to MSU46 PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (Tillman,Zakari) 15 yards from UFL36 to MSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q4 10:27
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the MSST 48
+0.2
Q4 9:45
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the MSST 46
-0.3
Q4 9:12
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Lagway,DJ pass incomplete short left to Abrams,TJ thrown to MSU40 QB hurried by Tillman,Zakari PENALTY MSU Roughing The Passer (Tillman,Zakari) 15 yards from MSU46 to MSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q4 9:02
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the MSST 30
+0.4
Q4 8:29
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Lagway,DJ pass incomplete short left to Wilson,Dallas thrown to MSU19 PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Wilson,Dallas) 14 yards from MSU30 to MSU44. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 8:19
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 45
-0.3
Q4 7:28
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 10 yds to the MSST 35
-0.1
Q4 6:49
Trey Smack 53 yd FG GOOD
+5.3
Q4 6:49
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.3
Q4 6:36
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 20 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q4 6:20
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen Thompson
-0.1
Q4 6:12
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 48
+1.9
Q4 5:51
Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the FLA 44 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ethan Pulliam) to the MSST 46
0.0
Q4 2:48
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the MSST 40
+1.1
Q4 2:42
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 16 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:42
PENALTY MSU False Start 5 yards from UFL44 to UFL49. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 2:36
Davon Booth run for 11 yds to the FLA 38
0.0
Q4 2:32
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley
-0.2
Q4 2:32
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 29 yds to the FLA 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:32
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the FLA 8
0.0
Q4 2:32
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ayden Williams
0.0
Q4 2:22
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete short left to Williams,Ayden thrown to UFL00 PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Robinson,Jaden) 6 yards from UFL08 to UFL02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 2:00
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ayden Williams
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-24.6
Q4 2:00
Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.5
Q4 2:00
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 29
+8.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout Florida, clock 02:00
-0.2
Q4 1:54
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 34
+0.7
Q4 1:54
Timeout Florida, clock 01:54
0.0
Q4 1:47
DJ Lagway sacked by Brylan Lanier for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 27
0.0
Q4 1:47
Timeout Florida, clock 01:47
-0.6
Q4 1:38
Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 28
0.0
Q4 1:32
Blake Shapen run for 18 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down
-7.2
Q4 1:15
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 1 yd to the MSST 47
+3.4
Q4 1:10
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen Thompson
0.0
Q4 1:03
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 10 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q4 0:42
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the FLA 37
-1.1
Q4 0:38
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 8 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q4 0:29
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the FLA 29
+0.9
Q4 0:29
Timeout Florida, clock 00:29
0.0
Q4 0:21
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Michai Boireau return for 5 yds to the FLA 34
+1.2
Q4 0:21
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Michai Boireau return for 5 yds to the FLA 34
0.0
Q4 0:00
D. Lagway takes a knee
+12.9
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:00
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q4 11:57
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-16.8
TD · Q1 12:18
Kamario Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-14.8