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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreFLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:24 · DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 16 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsHome team on offenseDefense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:08: Amir Jackson 1 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +1.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q1 3:38: Dallas Wilson 6 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +5.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 13:04: Le'Veon Moss 22 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick) — FLA win probability +1.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · Q3 10:42: Randy Bond 26 Yd Field Goal — TA&M win probability +11.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · Q3 7:08: Trey Smack 45 Yd Field Goal — TA&M win probability +1.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 8:59FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it31.9%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.0%average punt
- Q2 11:43FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snapGo for it26.6%−1.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q2 10:11TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snapGo for it71.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.3%average punt
- Q2 7:23FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it24.1%−1.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q2 7:12FLA 4th & 24 at FLA 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snapGo for it23.3%−2.56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%average punt
- Q2 4:22TA&M 4th & 6 at FLA 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snapGo for it74.0%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call74.1%66% to makePunt70.4%−3.7average punt
- Q2 2:14FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.1%average punt
- Q3 14:24TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snapGo for it73.1%−1.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.2%average punt
- Q3 10:42TA&M 4th & 2 at FLA 8, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.1%54% to convertField goalTheir call74.9%−1.290% to makePunt68.6%−7.5average punt
- Q3 7:08FLA 4th & 2 at TA&M 27, down 13Close callKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.3%57% to convertField goalTheir call14.5%−0.862% to makePunt10.5%−4.8average punt
- Q3 5:48TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 31, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snapGo for it88.0%−0.948% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%average punt
- Q3 3:54FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 22, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it10.8%−2.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%average punt
- Q4 12:53FLA 4th & 6 at TA&M 49, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:11TA&M 4th & 4 at FLA 5, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call97.8%−0.192% to makePunt96.3%−1.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:08FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.5%97% to makeGo for two32.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:14TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.3%97% to makeGo for two68.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:19TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.0%97% to makeGo for two70.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:38FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.2%97% to makeGo for two32.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:04TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.7%97% to makeGo for two70.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFLADrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5231% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
68.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 24 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
68.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 4 yds to the TA&M 47Similar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
66.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 13 yds to the TA&M 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
65.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 6 yds to the TA&M 13Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+10
64.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 10 yds to the TA&M 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5462% → 63%
FLADrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1438% → 38%
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael Sturdivant, broken up by Tyreek ChappellSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
61.6%
Tommy Doman punt for 49 yds , KC Concepcion returns for no gain to the TA&M 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4TD6 plays · 81 yds · 2:3061% → 61%
Q1 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+8
60.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 8 yds to the TA&M 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
59.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 28 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+11
59.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jamarion Morrow for 11 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, off-side (Sharif Denson) to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4139% → 47%
TA&MDrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3454% → 50%
Q1 2:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
52.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Theo Melin Öhrström for 14 yds to the TA&M 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
53.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Theo Melin Öhrström for no gain to the TA&M 44Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 4
50
+10
51.6%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 10 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2048% → 48%
Q2 12:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-9
51.1%
DJ Lagway sacked by Albert Regis for a loss of 9 yards to the FLA 22 DJ Lagway fumbled, recovered by FLA KD Daniels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2345% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT8 plays · -3 yds · 2:5150% → 48%
Q2 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+8
49.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 8 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
50.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan Baugh, broken up by Tyreek ChappellSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-3
50.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10MISSED FG6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4244% → 40%
FLADrive 11Uncategorized6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0352% → 51%
Q2 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
47.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 8 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3541% → 38%
Q3 14:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
37.5%
Tyler White punt for 50 yds , Vernell Brown III returns for 8 yds to the FLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13FUMBLE3 plays · -6 yds · 1:1950% → 46%
TA&MDrive 14FG5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0644% → 54%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
44.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Amari Niblack for 13 yds to the FLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15FG10 plays · 47 yds · 3:2833% → 36%
TA&MDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2064% → 63%
FLADrive 17Uncategorized6 plays · -10 yds · 1:4737% → 34%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
62.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to KD Daniels for no gain to the FLA 25 Florida Penalty, Offensive holding (Austin Barber) to the FLA 15Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
62.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas Wilson, broken up by Cashius HowellSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+1
63.3%
KD Daniels run for 16 yds to the FLA 31 Florida Penalty, personal foul (Dallas Wilson) to the FLA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0029% → 24%
TA&MDrive 19TD13 plays · 50 yds · 8:0892% → 98%
FLADrive 20Uncategorized2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.9%
DJ Lagway sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 23 DJ Lagway fumbled, recovered by TA&M Dayon Hayes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21FG9 plays · 18 yds · 3:1799% → 97%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
98.5%
Texas A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the FLA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22Uncategorized7 plays · 16 yds · 0:466% → 7%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 23Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-10
93.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden Hansen Florida Penalty, Offensive holding (Knijeah Harris) to the FLA 13Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+11
94.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 11 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
94.0%
DJ Lagway sacked by Tyler Onyedim for 0 yards to the FLA 24 for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive holding (Jordan Shaw) to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+16
92.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 16 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 10:42
Randy Bond 26 Yd Field Goal
+11.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+7.4
TD · Q1 3:38
Dallas Wilson 6 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)
-5.7