TEX
Texas 21 at Florida 29
FLA2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey play
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FLA · Drive 1TD · 17 plays · 84 yds
Q1 14:50
Will Stone kickoff for 65 yds , Vernell Brown III return for 16 yds to the FLA 16
51.4%
0.0
Q1 14:12
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 9 yds Dallas Wilson fumbled, recovered by FLA Dallas Wilson
54.9%
+3.5
Q1 14:06
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST down
54.9%
0.0
Q1 13:36
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 3 yds to the FLA 34
54.9%
0.0
Q1 12:58
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 35
54.9%
0.0
Q1 12:22
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 9 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST down
54.9%
0.0
Q1 11:53
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 48
56.0%
+1.1
Q1 11:21
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
56.0%
0.0
Q1 10:46
Vernell Brown III run for 14 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST down
55.8%
-0.2
Q1 10:21
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 10 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST down
57.4%
+1.6
Q1 9:53
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the TEX 14 for a 1ST down
57.4%
0.0
Q1 9:12
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the TEX 9
57.5%
+0.1
Q1 8:30
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the TEX 5
58.2%
+0.7
Q1 8:04
Timeout Florida, clock 08:04
58.6%
+0.4
Q1 7:58
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
70.6%
+12.0
Q1 7:58
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (-65 Yards)
56.4%
-14.2
Q1 7:58
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (Drake Stubbs)
56.4%
0.0
TEX · Drive 2PUNT · 8 plays · 30 yds
Q1 7:47
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 28
64.1%
+7.7
Q1 7:25
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 14 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST down
64.1%
0.0
Q1 7:01
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds to the TEX 46
63.3%
-0.8
Q1 6:25
Arch Manning run for 14 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST down
63.1%
-0.2
Q1 5:54
Arch Manning run for no gain to the FLA 40
62.2%
-0.9
Q1 5:29
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley V
63.7%
+1.5
Q1 5:22
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker Livingstone
63.7%
0.0
Q1 5:12
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 40 yds for a touchback
64.4%
+0.7
FLA · Drive 3FG · 10 plays · 64 yds
Q1 4:59
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 23 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST down
70.4%
+6.0
Q1 4:26
Jadan Baugh run for 16 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST down
71.2%
+0.8
Q1 3:46
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST down
71.7%
+0.4
Q1 3:05
Duke Clark run for 8 yds to the TEX 21
71.7%
0.0
Q1 2:34
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael Sturdivant
71.7%
0.0
Q1 2:26
Duke Clark run for 3 yds to the TEX 18 for a 1ST down
71.4%
-0.2
Q1 1:51
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Tony Livingston
71.7%
+0.2
Q1 1:42
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the TEX 16
71.7%
0.0
Q1 1:04
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas Wilson
71.4%
-0.2
Q1 1:00
Trey Smack 34 yd FG GOOD
74.3%
+2.9
TEX · Drive 4PUNT · 8 plays · 13 yds
Q1 1:00
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.2%
-0.2
Q1 0:52
Ryan Niblett run for 3 yds to the TEX 28
69.7%
-4.5
Q1 0:00
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 5 yds to the TEX 33
69.8%
+0.1
Q2 14:53
Arch Manning run for 4 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST down
69.9%
+0.1
Q2 14:15
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 1 yd to the TEX 38
70.8%
+0.9
Q2 13:52
Arch Manning pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.
70.3%
-0.5
Q2 13:46
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker Livingstone
70.3%
0.0
Q2 13:37
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 62 yds for a touchback
69.8%
-0.5
FLA · Drive 5FUMBLE · 3 plays · 46 yds
Q2 13:22
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 4 yds to the FLA 24
74.2%
+4.4
Q2 12:41
Duke Clark run for 7 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Taaffe) to the FLA 46 for a 1ST down
74.2%
0.0
Q2 12:06
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 20 yds Hayden Hansen fumbled, recovered by TEX Anthony Hill Jr.
74.5%
+0.3
TEX · Drive 6TD · 4 plays · 45 yds
Q2 11:58
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the FLA 43
68.5%
-6.0
Q2 11:06
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 33 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST down
68.1%
-0.4
Q2 10:31
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the FLA 6
69.1%
+1.0
Q2 9:55
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 6 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
59.6%
-9.6
FLA · Drive 7TD · 11 plays · 77 yds
Q2 9:52
Will Stone kickoff for 57 yds , Vernell Brown III return for 15 yds to the FLA 23
62.5%
+2.9
Q2 9:38
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 11 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST down
64.8%
+2.4
Q2 9:11
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 1 yd to the FLA 35
64.8%
0.0
Q2 8:45
Duke Clark run for 1 yd to the FLA 36
64.8%
0.0
Q2 7:57
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 19 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST down
66.3%
+1.4
Q2 7:30
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson III
67.1%
+0.8
Q2 7:20
Duke Clark run for 11 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST down
67.1%
0.0
Q2 6:44
Duke Clark run for 3 yds to the TEX 31
67.4%
+0.3
Q2 6:05
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 18 yds to the TEX 13 for a 1ST down
67.4%
0.0
Q2 5:31
Duke Clark run for no gain to the TEX 13
67.5%
+0.1
Q2 4:55
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 13 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
78.4%
+10.9
TEX · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q2 4:55
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.8%
-0.5
Q2 4:49
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo
75.6%
-2.3
Q2 4:36
Ryan Niblett run for 1 yd to the TEX 26
75.6%
0.0
Q2 4:00
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley V
77.2%
+1.6
Q2 3:52
Jack Bouwmeester punt blocked by Taylor Spierto for a SAFETY blocked by Taylor Spierto for a SAFETY
78.6%
+1.4
FLA · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · -3 yds
Q2 3:42
Will Stone kickoff for 61 yds , Vernell Brown III return for 21 yds to the FLA 40
78.6%
0.0
Q2 3:36
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 37
81.8%
+3.2
Q2 3:04
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Baugh,Jadan rush left for 1 yard loss to the UFL36 (Simmons,Colin) PENALTY UFL Holding (Slaughter,Jake) 10 yards from UFL37 to UFL27. NO PLAY.
81.7%
-0.1
Q2 2:36
Jadan Baugh run for no gain to the FLA 27
81.7%
0.0
Q2 1:58
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 10 yds to the FLA 37
81.7%
0.0
Q2 1:46
Tommy Doman punt for 51 yds
81.3%
-0.4
TEX · Drive 10END OF HALF · 6 plays · -7 yds
Q2 1:40
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the TEX 12
78.5%
-2.8
Q2 1:14
PENALTY TEX False Start (Goosby,Trevor) 5 yards from TEX12 to TEX07. NO PLAY.
78.4%
-0.1
Q2 0:54
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the TEX 13
78.4%
0.0
Q2 0:41
Timeout Florida, clock 00:41
77.5%
-0.9
Q2 0:00
Arch Manning sacked by Brien Taylor Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 5
77.4%
-0.1
Q3 15:00
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kofi Asare)
81.5%
+4.0
TEX · Drive 11PUNT · 4 plays · -4 yds
Q3 14:51
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the TEX 30
79.6%
-1.9
Q3 14:11
Arch Manning sacked by Michai Boireau for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 24
79.6%
0.0
Q3 13:36
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
79.6%
0.0
Q3 13:10
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 28 , Vernell Brown III returns for 3 yds to the FLA 28
79.6%
0.0
FLA · Drive 12PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q3 13:03
Duke Clark run for 5 yds to the FLA 33
82.5%
+2.9
Q3 12:29
Duke Clark run for no gain to the FLA 33
82.5%
0.0
Q3 11:39
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 2 yds to the FLA 35
82.5%
0.0
Q3 11:02
Tommy Doman punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 35
82.5%
0.0
TEX · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 25 yds
Q3 10:50
Arch Manning pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 22 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST down
80.2%
-2.3
Q3 10:21
Ryan Wingo pass incomplete to Jack Endries
79.4%
-0.8
Q3 10:14
Arch Manning run for no gain to the FLA 43
79.4%
0.0
Q3 9:32
Arch Manning run for 3 yds to the FLA 40
80.7%
+1.2
Q3 8:50
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 40 yds for a touchback
80.8%
+0.1
FLA · Drive 14FG · 7 plays · 60 yds
Q3 8:50
PENALTY UFL False Start (Barber,Austin) 5 yards from UFL20 to UFL15. NO PLAY.
83.5%
+2.8
Q3 8:35
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 60 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST down
83.5%
0.0
Q3 7:55
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 4 yds to the TEX 21
84.1%
+0.5
Q3 7:31
PENALTY UFL False Start (George Jr.,Damieon) 5 yards from TEX21 to TEX26. NO PLAY.
84.1%
0.0
Q3 7:02
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 2 yds to the TEX 24
85.3%
+1.2
Q3 6:20
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the TEX 20
85.3%
0.0
Q3 5:37
Trey Smack 38 yd FG GOOD
88.2%
+2.9
TEX · Drive 15TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q3 5:37
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.1%
-0.1
Q3 5:30
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jack Endries
87.3%
-0.7
Q3 5:17
Arch Manning run for 15 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST down
87.3%
0.0
Q3 4:41
Christian Clark run for no gain to the TEX 40
87.3%
0.0
Q3 4:02
Arch Manning pass complete to Christian Clark for 9 yds to the TEX 49
87.3%
0.0
Q3 3:35
(03:36) PENALTY TEX False Start (Baker,Brandon) 5 yards from TEX49 to TEX44. NO PLAY.
86.9%
-0.4
Q3 3:09
Arch Manning pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 18 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST down
87.3%
+0.4
Q3 2:43
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 38 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
73.2%
-14.1
FLA · Drive 16TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q3 2:43
Will Stone kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.4%
+1.2
Q3 2:38
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan Baugh
82.4%
+7.9
Q3 2:30
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the FLA 32
82.4%
0.0
Q3 1:49
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down
82.4%
0.0
Q3 1:16
Jadan Baugh run for 9 yds to the FLA 45
82.4%
0.0
Q3 0:38
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 55 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
90.0%
+7.6
TEX · Drive 17INT · 9 plays · 36 yds
Q3 0:38
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
89.9%
-0.1
Q3 0:14
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 19 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST down
89.9%
-0.1
Q3 0:00
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Wisner,Quintrevion rush right for 6 yards gain to the TEX50 (McClain,Cormani) PENALTY TEX Holding (Baker,Brandon) 10 yards from TEX44 to TEX34. NO PLAY.
89.9%
0.0
Q4 14:54
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo
89.9%
0.0
Q4 14:44
Arch Manning run for 36 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST down
91.1%
+1.2
Q4 14:13
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 1 yd to the FLA 29
91.0%
-0.1
Q4 13:41
PENALTY TEX False Start (Brooks,Nick) 5 yards from UFL29 to UFL34. NO PLAY.
91.3%
+0.3
Q4 13:31
PENALTY TEX False Start (Brooks,Nick) 5 yards from UFL34 to UFL39. NO PLAY.
91.3%
0.0
Q4 13:06
Arch Manning pass intercepted Jordan Castell return for 18 yds to the FLA 38
91.3%
0.0
FLA · Drive 18PUNT · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q4 13:00
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Aidan Mizell
91.1%
-0.2
Q4 12:52
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 42
91.1%
0.0
Q4 12:10
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 10 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST down
91.1%
0.0
Q4 11:36
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the TEX 47
91.1%
0.0
Q4 11:12
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 6 yds to the TEX 41
91.4%
+0.3
Q4 10:32
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 44
91.4%
0.0
Q4 9:56
Tommy Doman punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 15
91.4%
0.0
TEX · Drive 19INT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q4 9:26
Arch Manning run for no gain to the TEX 15
92.1%
+0.7
Q4 9:06
Arch Manning sacked by Devin Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 13
92.1%
0.0
Q4 8:22
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 14 yds to the TEX 27 for a 1ST down
92.1%
0.0
Q4 8:01
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Wisner,Quintrevion rush left for 3 yards gain to the TEX30 (Castell,Jordan) PENALTY TEX Holding (Washington,Jordan) 10 yards from TEX27 to TEX17. NO PLAY.
92.1%
0.0
Q4 7:33
Arch Manning pass intercepted Devin Moore return for no gain to the FLA 43
92.1%
0.0
FLA · Drive 20INT · 2 plays · 1 yds
Q4 7:03
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 44
91.5%
-0.6
Q4 6:43
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Michael Taaffe return for no gain to the TEX 26
91.5%
0.0
TEX · Drive 21PUNT · 6 plays · -6 yds
Q4 6:34
Arch Manning sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 19
92.1%
+0.6
Q4 6:04
Arch Manning pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.
92.1%
0.0
Q4 6:04
PENALTY TEX Delay Of Game 5 yards from TEX19 to TEX14. NO PLAY.
92.1%
0.0
Q4 6:04
PENALTY TEX False Start (Wingo,Ryan) 5 yards from TEX14 to TEX09. NO PLAY.
92.1%
0.0
Q4 5:51
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 11 yds to the TEX 20
92.1%
0.0
Q4 5:15
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 35
92.1%
0.0
FLA · Drive 22PUNT · 8 plays · 3 yds
Q4 5:09
Timeout Texas, clock 05:09
92.4%
+0.3
Q4 5:08
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 41
92.4%
0.0
Q4 5:06
Timeout Texas, clock 05:06
92.0%
-0.4
Q4 5:06
PENALTY UFL False Start (Livingston,Tony) 5 yards from UFL42 to UFL37. NO PLAY.
92.0%
0.0
Q4 5:06
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 42
92.0%
0.0
Q4 5:02
Timeout Texas, clock 05:02
87.5%
-4.5
Q4 5:00
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 38
87.5%
0.0
Q4 4:50
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 10 yds to the TEX 31
87.5%
0.0
TEX · Drive 23TD · 5 plays · 69 yds
Q4 4:42
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo
80.0%
-7.5
Q4 4:22
Arch Manning pass complete to Daylan McCutcheon for 26 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST down
80.0%
0.0
Q4 3:57
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 42 yds to the FLA 1 for a 1ST down
80.2%
+0.3
Q4 3:36
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the FLA 1
80.2%
0.0
Q4 3:20
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
70.8%
-9.5
FLA · Drive 24PUNT · 9 plays · 20 yds
Q4 3:20
Will Stone kickoff for 60 yds , Vernell Brown III return for no gain to the FLA 5
71.2%
+0.4
Q4 3:14
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 9 yds to the FLA 14
85.1%
+14.0
Q4 2:41
PENALTY TEX Offside (Hill Jr.,Anthony) 5 yards from UFL14 to UFL19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
85.1%
0.0
Q4 2:14
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 25
85.1%
0.0
Q4 1:53
Timeout Florida, clock 01:53
85.7%
+0.5
Q4 1:52
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 26
85.7%
0.0
Q4 1:43
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 25
85.7%
0.0
Q4 1:06
Timeout Florida, clock 01:06
87.8%
+2.1
Q4 0:55
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 31
87.8%
0.0
TEX · Drive 25END OF GAME · 5 plays · 27 yds
Q4 0:46
Arch Manning sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the TEX 19
77.1%
-10.7
Q4 0:26
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 26 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeramiah McCloud) to the FLA 40 for a 1ST down
77.4%
+0.3
Q4 0:18
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo
76.5%
-0.9
Q4 0:08
Arch Manning sacked by George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 42
76.5%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Arch Manning pass incomplete
76.4%
-0.1
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 7:58
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (-65 Yards)
-14.2
TD · Q3 2:43
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 38 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-14.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:14
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 9 yds to the FLA 14
+14