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TEX

Texas 21 at Florida 29

FLA
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Arch Manning pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:55: Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 6 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +6.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:55: DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 13 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +7.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:43: Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 38 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +11.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:38: DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 55 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +10.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:20: Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +8.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 5:12TEX 4th & 10 at FLA 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:00FLA 4th & 8 at TEX 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:37TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:52TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:46FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 37, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:10TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 26, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:02FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 35, up 12
    Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:50TEX 4th & 7 at FLA 40, down 12
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:37FLA 4th & 5 at TEX 20, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−7.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:56FLA 4th & 6 at TEX 44, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:15TEX 4th & 16 at TEX 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:50FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 38, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:55FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:58FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:55TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:55FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:43TEX Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:38FLA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:20TEX Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
17 plays · 84 yds · 6:1439% → 44%
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
39.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 9 yds Dallas Wilson fumbled, recovered by FLA Dallas WilsonSimilar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+6
39.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
39.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 3 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
39.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 35Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+9
39.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 9 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
40.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
40.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 4
50
+14
40.6%
Vernell Brown III run for 14 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
40.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 10 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
41.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the TEX 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
41.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the TEX 9Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
41.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the TEX 5Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
44.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3556% → 55%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
43.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 28Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+14
44.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 14 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
43.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+14
43.9%
Arch Manning run for 14 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
44.0%
Arch Manning run for no gain to the FLA 40Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
44.3%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley VSimilar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
44.8%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
45.5%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:5946% → 49%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
45.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 23 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
47.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 16 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
47.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
48.5%
Duke Clark run for 8 yds to the TEX 21Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
48.6%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
48.3%
Duke Clark run for 3 yds to the TEX 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
49.2%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Tony LivingstonSimilar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
49.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the TEX 16Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
49.3%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Dallas WilsonSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
48.7%
Trey Smack 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1551% → 48%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.3%
Ryan Niblett run for 3 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
49.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 5 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
49.7%
Arch Manning run for 4 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
49.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 1 yd to the TEX 38Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
50.5%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
51.1%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
52.2%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:1650% → 53%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
50.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 4 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+22
50.8%
Duke Clark run for 7 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Taaffe) to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
52.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 20 yds Hayden Hansen fumbled, recovered by TEX Anthony Hill Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 2:0350% → 57%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
50.2%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+33
51.2%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 33 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
50.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the FLA 6Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
43.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 6 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:4347% → 60%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
47.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 11 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
47.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 1 yd to the FLA 35Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
47.6%
Duke Clark run for 1 yd to the FLA 36Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+19
48.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 19 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
51.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
51.3%
Duke Clark run for 11 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
52.4%
Duke Clark run for 3 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+18
52.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 18 yds to the TEX 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
53.1%
Duke Clark run for no gain to the TEX 13Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
60.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 13 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5741% → 35%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.3%
Ryan Niblett run for 1 yd to the TEX 26Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
61.0%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley VSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
65.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt blocked by Taylor Spierto for a SAFETY blocked by Taylor Spierto for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5067% → 66%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
66.8%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 37Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-10
65.9%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Baugh,Jadan rush left for 1 yard loss to the UFL36 (Simmons,Colin) PENALTY UFL Holding (Slaughter,Jake) 10 yards from UFL37 to UFL27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 23
OWN 27
0
66.2%
Jadan Baugh run for no gain to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 23
OWN 27
+10
66.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 10 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
66.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:4034% → 31%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
66.5%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the TEX 12Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
67.3%
PENALTY TEX False Start (Goosby,Trevor) 5 yards from TEX12 to TEX07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+6
68.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the TEX 13Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 13
-8
68.6%
Arch Manning sacked by Brien Taylor Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4131% → 28%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-6
69.9%
Arch Manning sacked by Michai Boireau for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 24Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+2
71.0%
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+3
71.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 28 , Vernell Brown III returns for 3 yds to the FLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0174% → 75%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
73.7%
Duke Clark run for 5 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
74.6%
Duke Clark run for no gain to the FLA 33Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+2
74.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 2 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:0027% → 26%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
72.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 22 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.4%
Ryan Wingo pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
72.0%
Arch Manning run for no gain to the FLA 43Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+3
73.3%
Arch Manning run for 3 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
74.5%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:1378% → 85%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
77.9%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Barber,Austin) 5 yards from UFL20 to UFL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+60
77.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 60 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
79.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 4 yds to the TEX 21Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-5
79.7%
PENALTY UFL False Start (George Jr.,Damieon) 5 yards from TEX21 to TEX26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+2
80.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 2 yds to the TEX 24Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+4
80.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the TEX 20Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
85.3%
Trey Smack 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4717% → 27%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.4%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.0%
Arch Manning run for 15 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.1%
Christian Clark run for no gain to the TEX 40Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
84.2%
Arch Manning pass complete to Christian Clark for 9 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
83.7%
(03:36) PENALTY TEX False Start (Baker,Brandon) 5 yards from TEX49 to TEX44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+18
84.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 18 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
73.4%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 38 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0079% → 92%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.2%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan BaughSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
79.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
81.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 9 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+55
91.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 55 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:0811% → 11%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
89.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 19 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
88.5%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Wisner,Quintrevion rush right for 6 yards gain to the TEX50 (McClain,Cormani) PENALTY TEX Holding (Baker,Brandon) 10 yards from TEX44 to TEX34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
89.5%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+36
89.7%
Arch Manning run for 36 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
87.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 1 yd to the FLA 29Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-5
87.9%
PENALTY TEX False Start (Brooks,Nick) 5 yards from UFL29 to UFL34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 14
OPP 34
-5
88.1%
PENALTY TEX False Start (Brooks,Nick) 5 yards from UFL34 to UFL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 19
OPP 39
-18
89.4%
Arch Manning pass intercepted Jordan Castell return for 18 yds to the FLA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0493% → 95%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.3%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Aidan MizellSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
93.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
93.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 10 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
94.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the TEX 47Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
94.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 6 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-3
94.8%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 44Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
94.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:536% → 5%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
93.6%
Arch Manning run for no gain to the TEX 15Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-2
93.8%
Arch Manning sacked by Devin Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 13Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+14
94.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 14 yds to the TEX 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
94.1%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Wisner,Quintrevion rush left for 3 yards gain to the TEX30 (Castell,Jordan) PENALTY TEX Holding (Washington,Jordan) 10 yards from TEX27 to TEX17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 20
OWN 17
0
94.6%
Arch Manning pass intercepted Devin Moore return for no gain to the FLA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2096% → 96%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 44Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
96.2%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Michael Taaffe return for no gain to the TEX 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:195% → 4%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
94.8%
Arch Manning sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 19Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 17
OWN 19
0
95.4%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 17
OWN 19
-5
95.5%
PENALTY TEX Delay Of Game 5 yards from TEX19 to TEX14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 22
OWN 14
-5
95.5%
PENALTY TEX False Start (Wingo,Ryan) 5 yards from TEX14 to TEX09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 27
OWN 9
+11
95.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 11 yds to the TEX 20Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:1897% → 97%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 41Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-5
97.5%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Livingston,Tony) 5 yards from UFL42 to UFL37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
97.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+1
97.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 38Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+10
97.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 10 yds to the TEX 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:221% → 10%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+26
99.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Daylan McCutcheon for 26 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+42
98.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 42 yds to the FLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the FLA 1Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.2%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:1995% → 97%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
95.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 9 yds to the FLA 14Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+5
95.8%
PENALTY TEX Offside (Hill Jr.,Anthony) 5 yards from UFL14 to UFL19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
95.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
96.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 26Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-1
97.0%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:465% → 6%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-12
94.8%
Arch Manning sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the TEX 19Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 22
OWN 19
+41
95.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 26 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeramiah McCloud) to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.8%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
93.3%
Arch Manning sacked by George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
94.5%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:43
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 38 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q3 0:38
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 55 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q4 3:20
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com