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GAST

Georgia State 21 at Vanderbilt 70

VAN
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:38 · Jamezell Lassiter run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+19.0Home team on offense+31.9Score differential+27.1Blowout margin+14.3Garbage-time factor+10.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:24: Braeden McAlister 52 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +1.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:33: Junior Sherrill run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:21: Cameran Brown pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 4 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister PAT BLOCKED) — GAST win probability +2.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:15: AJ Newberry run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +2.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:41: AJ Newberry run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:24GAST 4th & 7 at VAN 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:39GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:57GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:17GAST 4th & 19 at GAST 21, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:27VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 34, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:38GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 21, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:36GAST 4th & 13 at VAN 31, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:36VAN 4th & 1 at GAST 34, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:38VAN 4th & 3 at GAST 23, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:09GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 38, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:39GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 6, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:23GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:26GAST 4th & 15 at VAN 32, down 55
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 10 of 10GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 5:52VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:08VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:33VAN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:21GAST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:15VAN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:41VAN Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:24VAN Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:11GAST Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:23VAN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 8:38VAN Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:02VAN Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:23VAN Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:26GAST Touchdown, down 49 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:364% → 5%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+19
96.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 19 yds to the GAST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for no gain to the GAST 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+20
96.2%
Rashad Amos run for 20 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
96.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Rashad Amos for 2 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
96.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass complete short left to Overton-Howard,Camden caught at GSU27, for 9 yards to the GSU34 (Patterson,Langston; Capers,Miles) PENALTY GSU Illegal Touch-Pass (Overton-Howard,Camden). NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
96.2%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 6 yards to the GAST 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
96.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass complete short left to Overton-Howard,Camden caught at GSU21, for 3 yards to the GSU22 fumbled by Overton-Howard,Camden at GSU23 forced by Heard,CJ, out of bounds at GSU22 PENALTY VAN Illegal Substitution 5 yards from GSU19 to GSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
96.2%
Branson Robinson run for 6 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-5
96.2%
PENALTY GSU False Start (McCrimmon,Jeremiah) 5 yards from VAN29 to VAN34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
96.2%
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the VAN 34Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+52
95.2%
Braeden McAlister 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3295% → 95%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 9 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
95.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 6 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
95.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 12 yds to the GAST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.3%
PENALTY GSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from GSU48 to GSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+6
95.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 6 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
95.3%
Diego Pavia run for 16 yds to the GAST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
94.5%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior SherrillSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+18
94.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for 18 yds to the GAST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:136% → 6%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.5%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Defensive Holding (Bryan Longwell) to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Branson RobinsonSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
94.5%
Branson Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 35Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
94.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+5
94.4%
Reed Chandley punt for 41 yds , Martel Hight returns for 5 yds to the VAN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:3194% → 95%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
94.3%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
94.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kayleb BarnettSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+48
94.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 48 yds to the GAST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.0%
Diego Pavia run for 16 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.7%
Rashad Amos run for 10 yds to the GAST 35 Rashad Amos fumbled, recovered by VAN Jaylon StoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:2395% → 96%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
94.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 26 yds to the GAST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
94.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the GAST 8Similar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.9%
Georgia State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Rashad Amos) declinedSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.0%
Junior Sherrill run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:154% → 6%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Jordon SimmonsSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.9%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Burton,Jeff) 5 yards from GSU25 to GSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
96.0%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for 8 yds to the GAST 28Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
95.9%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 19 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
95.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
95.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the VAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
95.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the VAN 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
95.6%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for 4 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+11
95.5%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for 11 yds to the VAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
95.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Amos,Rashad rush right for 0 yards to the VAN24 (Mann,Bradley) PENALTY GSU Tripping (McCrimmon,Jeremiah) 15 yards from VAN24 to VAN39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 39
0
95.7%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Rashad AmosSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 25
OPP 39
+13
95.7%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Rashad Amos for 13 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+15
95.7%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 15 yds to the VAN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
95.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the VAN 4Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
93.3%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 4 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
93.9%
McAlister,Braeden onside kickoff 9 yards to the GSU44 PENALTY GSU Offside (McCall,Sam) 5 yards from GSU35 to GSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
14 plays · 52 yds · 5:5695% → 97%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.0%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Cole SpenceSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
94.9%
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
94.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
94.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamezell Lassiter for 6 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
94.6%
AJ Newberry run for 2 yds to the GAST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
94.8%
AJ Newberry run for 5 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+7
94.8%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the GAST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
94.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego pass incomplete short left to Sherrill,Junior thrown to GSU00 PENALTY GSU Pass Interference (Causey III,Bernard) 14 yards from GSU16 to GSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
94.8%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the GAST 5Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
94.8%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the GAST 2Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
AJ Newberry run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:184% → 4%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.8%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 5 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
95.6%
Cameran Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 29Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
95.8%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Reed Chandley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 1:1697% → 99%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
97.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 14 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Richie HoskinsSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+40
97.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 40 yds to the GAST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
97.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 11 yds to the GAST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
97.1%
Junior Sherrill run for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 8Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.6%
AJ Newberry run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:241% → 1%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.9%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 3 yds to the GAST 33Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
98.8%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-12
98.8%
Georgia State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cameran Brown) to the GAST 21Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
98.8%
Reed Chandley punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 0:5399% → 99%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
98.5%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+13
98.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 13 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
98.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for 1 yd to the VAN 47Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+17
98.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tristen Brown for 17 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
98.6%
Diego Pavia run for 16 yds to the GAST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego pass incomplete deep left to Hudson,Trent thrown to GSU00 broken up by Causey III,Bernard PENALTY GSU Personal Foul (Causey III,Bernard) 10 yards from GSU20 to GSU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 10 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.4%
PENALTY GSU Roughing The Passer (Dean,Marlin) 15 yards from VAN35 to VAN50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:241% → 1%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Rashad Amos for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Rashad AmosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3399% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 4 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Richie HoskinsSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kayleb BarnettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:161% → 0%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 9 yds to the VAN 25Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
99.4%
PENALTY GSU False Start (McCrimmon,Jeremiah) 5 yards from VAN25 to VAN30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
99.4%
Dennis Murray Jr. run for 1 yd to the VAN 29Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+17
99.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 17 yds to the VAN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Amos,Rashad rush middle for 5 yards gain to the VAN07 (Sewell,Marlen; Heard,CJ) PENALTY VAN Illegal Substitution 5 yards from VAN12 to VAN07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 5
OPP 7
+1
99.4%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the VAN 6Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass incomplete short right to Hurst,Ted thrown to VAN00 PENALTY VAN Illegal Substitution 3 yards from VAN06 to VAN03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.6%
PENALTY VAN Personal Foul (Taylor,Kolbey) 15 yards from GSU35 to GSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.6%
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the VAN 40Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+60
99.7%
Makhilyn Young run for 60 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT TD
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Camden Overton-HowardSimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.7%
TJ Finley sacked by Miles Capers for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 21Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+4
99.8%
Jamison Curtis 4 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Amos,Rashad rush right for 7 yards loss to the GSU18 (Capers,Miles; Patterson,Langston) PENALTY VAN Face Mask (Capers,Miles) 15 yards from GSU25 to GSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 4 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+14
99.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
50
0
99.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
50
+15
99.8%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jordan Matthews) to the VAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Derrick Avery Jr.Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Avion McBride for 5 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-10
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass complete short right to Blackburn,Leo caught at VAN16, for 7 yards to the VAN16 (Rinaldi,Nick) PENALTY GSU Holding (Duffus,Deandre) 10 yards from VAN23 to VAN33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+2
99.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 2 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+49
99.8%
Braeden McAlister 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Emmanuel AdebiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:58100% → 100%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
99.8%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Tristen Brown for 26 yds to the GAST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete to Trent HudsonSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete to Brycen ColemanSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.8%
Blaze Berlowitz run for 9 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+4
99.8%
Blaze Berlowitz run for 4 yds to the GAST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.8%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete to Joseph McVaySimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.8%
Gabe Fields run for 3 yds to the GAST 27Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+4
99.8%
Jamezell Lassiter run for 4 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 3
OPP 23
-2
99.8%
Jamezell Lassiter run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Djay Braswell run for no gain to the GAST 25Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 9 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
TJ Peyton run for 1 yd to the GAST 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
99.9%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
99.9%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+19
99.9%
Reed Chandley punt for 51 yds , Martel Hight returns for 19 yds to the VAN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Gabe Fields run for 1 yd to the VAN 31Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Kayleb Barnett for 10 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Gabe Fields run for 3 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-1
99.9%
Gabe Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 43Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Georgia State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Camden Overton-Howard) to the GAST 7Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+50
99.9%
Blaze Berlowitz run for 43 yds to the GAST 14 for a 1ST down Georgia State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Bernard Causey III) to the GAST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Blaze Berlowitz run for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 3 yds to the GAST 11Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
99.9%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Javon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 7
OWN 11
-5
99.9%
PENALTY GSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from GSU11 to GSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
99.9%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Camden Overton-HowardSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 12
OWN 6
+6
99.9%
Reed Chandley punt for 41 yds , Tristen Brown returns for 6 yds to the GAST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Drew Dickey pass incomplete to Trent HudsonSimilar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
99.9%
Drew Dickey run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 42Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+28
99.9%
Drew Dickey pass complete to Tristen Brown for 28 yds to the GAST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.9%
Drew Dickey run for 5 yds to the GAST 9Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Drew Dickey run for 9 yds for a TD (Mason Rohmiller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:570% → 0%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to DJ Riles for 5 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
100.0%
TJ Peyton run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 29Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to DJ Riles for 5 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
100.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Keron Milton for 8 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
100.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Keron Milton for 3 yds to the GAST 45Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+15
100.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to TJ Peyton for 15 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
100.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to DJ Riles for 13 yds to the VAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
100.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kyle WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
100.0%
TJ Finley sacked by Mason Nelson for a loss of 5 yards to the VAN 32Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 15
OPP 32
0
100.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to TJ PeytonSimilar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+32
100.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to DJ Riles for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Whit Muschamp pass complete to Joseph McVay for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Whit Muschamp pass incomplete to Witt EdwardsSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+35
100.0%
Whit Muschamp pass complete to Dominic Rezac for 35 yds to the GAST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
100.0%
Jamezell Lassiter run for 3 yds to the GAST 32 Vanderbilt Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joseph McVay) to the GAST 42Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 17
OPP 42
+8
100.0%
Jamezell Lassiter run for 8 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-16
100.0%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (-16 Yards) to the GAST 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 42
-1
100.0%
W. Muschamp takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:15
AJ Newberry run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 10:21
Cameran Brown pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 4 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister PAT BLOCKED)
-2.1
TD · Q1 1:33
Junior Sherrill run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com