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FLA

Florida 7 at Miami 26

MIA
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:58 · DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson III
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense+26.2Pregame prior+0.8Garbage-time factor+7.1Score differential+10.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:29: Carter Davis 28 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +4.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:24: Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +15.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:09: Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the MIA 45 — FLA win probability +5.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:42: Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 29 — MIA win probability +5.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:08: CharMar Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MIA win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 12:56FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:04MIA 4th & 24 at FLA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:41FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:53FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:07MIA 4th & 10 at FLA 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:14FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:14MIA 4th & 14 at FLA 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:51FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:29MIA 4th & 10 at FLA 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:43FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:00MIA 4th & 1 at FLA 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.7%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:36MIA 4th & 4 at FLA 39, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−1.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:36FLA 4th & 2 at MIA 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−6.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:05FLA 4th & 3 at MIA 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−4.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:50FLA 4th & 3 at MIA 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−2.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−4.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:20MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−2.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:20FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 26, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−2.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:58FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 23, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:34FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 27, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:25MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:24FLA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:08MIA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:56MIA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5233% → 33%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
66.7%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 16Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 13
OWN 16
-1
66.6%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 15Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 14
OWN 15
-1
66.6%
DJ Lagway sacked by Marquise Lightfoot for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 14Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 15
OWN 14
+14
66.7%
Tommy Doman punt for 56 yds , Malachi Toney returns for 14 yds to the MIA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:2567% → 69%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
66.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
66.8%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex BaumanSimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
66.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 41Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+13
66.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 13 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
66.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 22 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
66.9%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the FLA 2Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.7%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5532% → 31%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Eugene Wilson III run for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 8 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
68.2%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Jake Slaughter) to the FLA 28Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
68.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 2 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.8%
Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4FG
20 plays · 37 yds · 8:1469% → 69%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
68.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-5
68.9%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Anez Cooper) to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
68.8%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+9
68.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
69.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+1
69.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 46Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
69.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
50
+5
69.9%
CharMar Brown run for 5 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
70.1%
CharMar Brown run for 1 yd to the FLA 44Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+12
70.0%
CharMar Brown run for 12 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
70.4%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
70.5%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex BaumanSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+8
70.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 8 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
70.7%
Miami Penalty, False Start (James Brockermeyer) to the FLA 26Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+4
70.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-5
70.9%
Miami Penalty, False Start (James Brockermeyer) to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 16
OPP 27
-8
70.5%
Carson Beck sacked by Jayden Woods for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 35Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 24
OPP 35
0
70.0%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex BaumanSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 24
OPP 35
+53
69.3%
Carter Davis 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0429% → 29%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
71.3%
DJ Lagway run for 5 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
71.3%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 2 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
70.5%
Eugene Wilson III run for 3 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
70.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for 4 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
70.3%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
71.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:3871% → 71%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.8%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the MIA 24Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
70.9%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Tony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
70.3%
Beck, Carson pass incomplete to Lofton, Elija, PENALTY FLA holding (Denson, Sharif) 10 yards to the MIAMI34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
71.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 20 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
72.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
72.6%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 41Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
72.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex BaumanSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 5
OPP 41
-5
71.5%
Miami Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 46Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
71.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4727% → 26%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
72.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the FLA 10Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
73.1%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
73.8%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 8
OWN 10
0
74.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5474% → 72%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
73.8%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Mark Fletcher Jr.Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
73.7%
Carson Beck run for 1 yd to the FLA 42Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
73.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 9
OPP 42
-5
72.0%
Miami Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
71.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1827% → 25%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
73.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-7
73.2%
DJ Lagway sacked by Jakobe Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 20Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
74.9%
Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds, downed at the MIA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:1674% → 82%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
74.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 40Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+16
74.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 16 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
75.7%
CharMar Brown run for 9 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+9
75.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 9 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
76.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+17
76.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 17 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
76.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 7Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
77.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 5Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 0
OPP 5
-5
78.2%
Miami Penalty, False Start (James Brockermeyer) to the FLA 10Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.7%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
81.8%
Carter Davis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3618% → 18%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
81.6%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
82.0%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Bryce Lovett) to the FLA 24Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
82.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 3 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
82.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.4%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the MIA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:1183% → 85%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
82.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 13 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
83.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 38Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
84.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 40Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
84.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
85.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 41Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+8
85.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 8 yds to the MIA 49Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
85.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 3 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
84.6%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Elija LoftonSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
86.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 6 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
86.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
85.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:0315% → 30%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
85.0%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 27 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
83.6%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 7
50
+10
83.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 10 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
83.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+11
82.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 11 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
82.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the MIA 18Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
82.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 2 yds to the MIA 16Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+1
84.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 1 yd to the MIA 15Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+3
86.7%
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
85.7%
DJ Lagway run for 5 yds to the MIA 7Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
70.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.4%
Carson Beck pass intercepted Cormani McClain return for no gain to the FLA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:1927% → 25%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
73.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
72.2%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
73.0%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for no gain to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+5
74.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
72.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the MIA 36Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-9
72.4%
DJ Lagway sacked by Mohamed Toure for a loss of 9 yards to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+12
76.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 12 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+2
75.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to TJ Abrams for 2 yds to the MIA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2281% → 79%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
80.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 29Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+3
80.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
79.9%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Mark Fletcher Jr.Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
79.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds, downed at the FLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5323% → 19%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
77.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
77.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 27
-1
79.1%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 26Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
81.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 54 yds, downed at the MIA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 7:0285% → 97%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 24Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+16
85.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 16 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
87.3%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
88.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 6 yds to the MIA 49Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
87.8%
CharMar Brown run for 6 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
89.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 9 yds to the FLA 36Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+3
89.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
90.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 11 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
90.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the FLA 16Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+10
90.4%
CharMar Brown run for 10 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
90.9%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 3Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
91.7%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the FLA 1Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.4%
CharMar Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
97.2%
DJ Lagway sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 23Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
97.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
97.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:5698% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
98.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 18Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+16
98.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 16 yds to the FLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 1Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:161% → 1%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
DJ Lagway run for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan BaughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.5%
CharMar Brown run for 6 yds to the FLA 21Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-3
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 24Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:24
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-15.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:42
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 29
+5.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:09
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the MIA 45
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com