FLA
Florida 7 at Miami 26
MIA2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey play
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FLA · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · -5 yds
Q1 15:00
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds , Vernell Brown III return for 19 yds to the FLA 19
71.1%
0.0
Q1 14:48
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 16
69.3%
-1.8
Q1 14:16
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 15
68.3%
-1.0
Q1 13:36
DJ Lagway sacked by Marquise Lightfoot for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 14
68.3%
0.0
Q1 12:56
Tommy Doman punt for 56 yds , Malachi Toney returns for 14 yds to the MIA 44
68.3%
0.0
MIA · Drive 2TD · 7 plays · 56 yds
Q1 12:50
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST down
71.8%
+3.5
Q1 12:16
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex Bauman
72.8%
+1.1
Q1 12:12
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 41
72.8%
0.0
Q1 11:27
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 13 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST down
72.6%
-0.2
Q1 10:53
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 22 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST down
72.8%
+0.2
Q1 10:01
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the FLA 2
72.8%
0.0
Q1 9:25
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
82.6%
+9.8
FLA · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · 5 yds
Q1 9:25
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
82.2%
-0.5
Q1 9:18
Eugene Wilson III run for no gain to the FLA 25
79.5%
-2.7
Q1 8:46
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 8 yds to the FLA 33
79.2%
-0.3
Q1 8:10
Florida Penalty, False Start (Jake Slaughter) to the FLA 28
79.2%
0.0
Q1 7:37
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 2 yds to the FLA 30
79.2%
0.0
Q1 7:23
Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 28
79.2%
0.0
MIA · Drive 4FG · 20 plays · 37 yds
Q1 7:18
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 34
81.9%
+2.7
Q1 6:56
Miami Penalty, False Start (Anez Cooper) to the MIA 29
81.9%
0.0
Q1 6:37
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan Marion
81.9%
0.0
Q1 6:28
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST down
82.0%
+0.1
Q1 5:52
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 45
82.4%
+0.4
Q1 5:22
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 46
82.4%
0.0
Q1 4:54
Timeout Miami, clock 04:54
81.3%
-1.1
Q1 4:40
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
81.3%
0.0
Q1 4:26
CharMar Brown run for 5 yds to the FLA 45
81.8%
+0.4
Q1 3:42
CharMar Brown run for 1 yd to the FLA 44
81.7%
0.0
Q1 2:58
CharMar Brown run for 12 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST down
81.6%
-0.2
Q1 2:13
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 29
81.6%
0.0
Q1 1:34
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex Bauman
81.0%
-0.6
Q1 1:14
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 8 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST down
80.9%
-0.2
Q1 0:48
Miami Penalty, False Start (James Brockermeyer) to the FLA 26
81.0%
+0.2
Q1 0:27
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 22
80.9%
-0.1
Q2 15:00
Miami Penalty, False Start (James Brockermeyer) to the FLA 27
80.9%
-0.1
Q2 14:53
Carson Beck sacked by Jayden Woods for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 35
80.9%
0.0
Q2 14:09
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex Bauman
80.7%
-0.2
Q2 14:04
Carter Davis 53 yd FG GOOD
84.6%
+3.9
FLA · Drive 5PUNT · 9 plays · 18 yds
Q2 14:04
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
84.1%
-0.5
Q2 13:57
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael Sturdivant
81.8%
-2.3
Q2 13:51
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the FLA 29
81.8%
0.0
Q2 13:12
DJ Lagway run for 5 yds to the FLA 34
81.8%
0.0
Q2 12:41
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 2 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down
81.8%
0.0
Q2 12:06
Eugene Wilson III run for 3 yds to the FLA 39
81.8%
0.0
Q2 11:31
DJ Lagway pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for 4 yds to the FLA 43
81.4%
-0.3
Q2 11:00
DJ Lagway pass incomplete
81.2%
-0.3
Q2 10:53
Tommy Doman punt for 57 yds for a touchback
81.4%
+0.2
MIA · Drive 6PUNT · 10 plays · 34 yds
Q2 10:45
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the MIA 24
84.4%
+3.0
Q2 10:12
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Tony Johnson
84.4%
0.0
Q2 10:07
Beck, Carson pass incomplete to Lofton, Elija, PENALTY FLA holding (Denson, Sharif) 10 yards to the MIAMI34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.
84.4%
0.0
Q2 9:59
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 20 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST down
84.4%
0.0
Q2 9:28
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 44
84.8%
+0.3
Q2 8:48
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 41
84.8%
0.0
Q2 8:20
Timeout Miami, clock 08:20
84.7%
0.0
Q2 8:15
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex Bauman
84.7%
0.0
Q2 8:15
Miami Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 46
84.6%
-0.2
Q2 8:07
Dylan Joyce punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 8
84.8%
+0.2
FLA · Drive 7PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q2 8:01
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the FLA 10
83.8%
-1.0
Q2 7:27
DJ Lagway pass incomplete
83.8%
0.0
Q2 7:22
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden Hansen
83.8%
0.0
Q2 7:14
Tommy Doman punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 43
83.8%
0.0
MIA · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q2 7:08
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Mark Fletcher Jr.
85.4%
+1.6
Q2 6:55
Carson Beck run for 1 yd to the FLA 42
85.4%
0.0
Q2 6:22
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ Daniels
85.2%
-0.1
Q2 6:22
Miami Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 47
85.1%
-0.2
Q2 6:14
Dylan Joyce punt for 47 yds for a touchback
84.8%
-0.3
FLA · Drive 9PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q2 6:09
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson III
83.8%
-1.0
Q2 6:00
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the FLA 27
83.8%
0.0
Q2 5:27
DJ Lagway sacked by Jakobe Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 20
83.8%
0.0
Q2 4:51
Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds, downed at the MIA 38
83.8%
0.0
MIA · Drive 10FG · 13 plays · 52 yds
Q2 4:45
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 40
86.5%
+2.7
Q2 4:09
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 16 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST down
86.5%
0.0
Q2 3:29
CharMar Brown run for 9 yds to the FLA 35
87.1%
+0.6
Q2 2:55
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 9 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST down
87.2%
+0.1
Q2 2:00
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 23
87.1%
-0.1
Q2 1:53
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 17 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST down
87.1%
0.0
Q2 1:45
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 7
87.1%
0.0
Q2 1:45
Timeout Florida, clock 01:45
87.5%
+0.4
Q2 1:40
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 5
87.5%
0.0
Q2 1:40
Timeout Florida, clock 01:40
87.4%
-0.1
Q2 1:40
Miami Penalty, False Start (James Brockermeyer) to the FLA 10
87.4%
0.0
Q2 1:32
Carson Beck pass incomplete
87.4%
0.0
Q2 1:29
Carter Davis 28 yd FG GOOD
92.1%
+4.7
FLA · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · 2 yds
Q2 1:29
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.9%
-0.1
Q2 1:19
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 4 yds to the FLA 29
87.6%
-4.3
Q2 1:00
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden Hansen
87.6%
0.0
Q2 0:56
Florida Penalty, False Start (Bryce Lovett) to the FLA 24
87.6%
0.0
Q2 0:51
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 3 yds to the FLA 27
87.6%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Tommy Doman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 25
87.6%
0.0
MIA · Drive 12END OF HALF · 1 play · 3 yds
Q2 0:37
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the MIA 28
92.4%
+4.7
MIA · Drive 13PUNT · 13 plays · 42 yds
Q3 15:00
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds , Keelan Marion return for 19 yds to the MIA 19
88.1%
-4.3
Q3 14:47
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 13 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST down
91.5%
+3.4
Q3 14:27
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 38
91.5%
0.0
Q3 13:56
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 40
91.9%
+0.4
Q3 13:22
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST down
92.3%
+0.4
Q3 12:35
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 41
92.4%
+0.1
Q3 11:59
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 8 yds to the MIA 49
92.4%
0.0
Q3 11:23
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 3 yds to the FLA 48
92.3%
-0.1
Q3 11:00
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down
92.9%
+0.6
Q3 10:31
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Elija Lofton
93.0%
+0.1
Q3 10:22
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 6 yds to the FLA 39
93.0%
0.0
Q3 9:45
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ Daniels
93.1%
+0.1
Q3 9:36
Dylan Joyce punt for 39 yds for a touchback
93.1%
0.0
FLA · Drive 14TD · 12 plays · 80 yds
Q3 9:27
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 27 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST down
90.5%
-2.6
Q3 8:49
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
90.5%
-0.1
Q3 8:26
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 10 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down
90.1%
-0.3
Q3 7:51
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the MIA 34
90.1%
-0.1
Q3 7:16
Jadan Baugh run for 11 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST down
89.8%
-0.3
Q3 6:44
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the MIA 18
89.8%
0.0
Q3 5:58
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 2 yds to the MIA 16
89.8%
0.0
Q3 5:16
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 1 yd to the MIA 15
89.9%
0.0
Q3 4:47
Timeout Florida, clock 04:47
89.9%
0.0
Q3 4:36
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST down
89.9%
0.0
Q3 4:03
DJ Lagway run for 5 yds to the MIA 7
89.5%
-0.4
Q3 3:24
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
71.7%
-17.9
MIA · Drive 15INT · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q3 3:24
Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.0%
+2.3
Q3 3:16
Carson Beck pass intercepted Cormani McClain return for no gain to the FLA 48
82.2%
+8.2
FLA · Drive 16DOWNS · 8 plays · 21 yds
Q3 3:09
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the MIA 45
72.6%
-9.5
Q3 2:39
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden Hansen
72.2%
-0.5
Q3 2:32
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for no gain to the MIA 45
72.2%
0.0
Q3 2:05
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down
72.4%
+0.3
Q3 1:45
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the MIA 36
71.7%
-0.8
Q3 1:08
DJ Lagway sacked by Mohamed Toure for a loss of 9 yards to the MIA 45
71.7%
0.0
Q3 0:24
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 12 yds to the MIA 33
72.2%
+0.5
Q4 14:50
DJ Lagway pass complete to TJ Abrams for 2 yds to the MIA 31
72.3%
+0.1
MIA · Drive 17PUNT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q4 14:42
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 29
82.8%
+10.5
Q4 14:05
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the MIA 32
82.8%
0.0
Q4 13:30
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Mark Fletcher Jr.
82.8%
0.0
Q4 13:20
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds, downed at the FLA 18
82.4%
-0.4
FLA · Drive 18PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q4 13:13
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 23
75.9%
-6.4
Q4 12:35
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 27
75.9%
0.0
Q4 11:55
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 26
77.5%
+1.6
Q4 11:20
Tommy Doman punt for 54 yds, downed at the MIA 20
77.4%
-0.1
MIA · Drive 19TD · 15 plays · 80 yds
Q4 11:10
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 24
86.2%
+8.8
Q4 10:24
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 16 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down
86.6%
+0.4
Q4 9:47
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the MIA 43
87.0%
+0.4
Q4 9:13
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 6 yds to the MIA 49
86.7%
-0.3
Q4 8:35
CharMar Brown run for 6 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down
86.6%
-0.1
Q4 7:56
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 9 yds to the FLA 36
86.7%
+0.1
Q4 7:45
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST down
87.0%
+0.2
Q4 7:07
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 11 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST down
87.0%
0.0
Q4 6:25
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the FLA 16
87.1%
+0.2
Q4 5:47
Timeout Miami, clock 05:47
87.5%
+0.4
Q4 5:40
CharMar Brown run for 10 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST down
87.5%
0.0
Q4 5:00
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 3
88.6%
+1.1
Q4 4:17
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the FLA 1
88.8%
+0.2
Q4 4:11
Timeout Florida, clock 04:11
88.8%
0.0
Q4 4:08
CharMar Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
94.5%
+5.7
FLA · Drive 20DOWNS · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q4 4:08
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.6%
0.0
Q4 3:59
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 2 yds to the FLA 27
92.0%
-2.5
Q4 3:37
DJ Lagway sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 23
92.0%
0.0
Q4 3:04
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson III
91.9%
-0.1
Q4 2:58
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson III
91.9%
0.0
MIA · Drive 21TD · 5 plays · 22 yds
Q4 2:52
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 18
94.5%
+2.6
Q4 2:52
Timeout Florida, clock 02:52
94.5%
0.0
Q4 2:43
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 16 yds to the FLA 2 for a 1ST down
94.5%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 1
94.5%
0.0
Q4 1:56
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
98.1%
+3.6
FLA · Drive 22DOWNS · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q4 1:56
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.1%
0.0
Q4 1:50
DJ Lagway run for no gain to the FLA 25
96.3%
-1.8
Q4 1:43
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 2 yds to the FLA 27
96.3%
0.0
Q4 1:39
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden Hansen
96.3%
0.0
Q4 1:34
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan Baugh
96.3%
0.0
MIA · Drive 23END OF GAME · 3 plays · 1 yds
Q4 1:28
CharMar Brown run for 6 yds to the FLA 21
98.1%
+1.8
Q4 0:42
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 24
98.1%
0.0
Q4 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 26
98.1%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:24
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-17.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:42
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 29
+10.5
TD · Q1 9:25
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
+9.8