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FLA

Florida 10 at LSU 20

LSU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:36 · Tommy Doman punt for 50 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 18 yds to the LSU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+9.5Home team on offense−1.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:33: G. Nussmeier pass to Z. Thomas for 23 yds for a TD (D. Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:25: D. Lagway pass to A. Mizell for 10 yds for a TD (T. Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +11.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:23: Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron Anderson — LSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Damian Ramos 45 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:08: DJ Lagway pass intercepted Dashawn Spears return for 58 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:01LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:34FLA 4th & 8 at LSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:42LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:56LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:45FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:56LSU 4th & 14 at FLA 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:36FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:17LSU 4th & 3 at FLA 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:38FLA 4th & 19 at FLA 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−3.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:41LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:32FLA 4th & 9 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:18LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 49, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:02FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 30, down 10
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:08FLA 4th & 2 at LSU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−2.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:50LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:33LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:25FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:08LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5564% → 64%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
63.8%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
63.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
63.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Caden DurhamSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+20
63.7%
Grant Chadwick punt for 54 yds , Vernell Brown III returns for 20 yds to the FLA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2736% → 37%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
63.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 9 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
63.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
50
+21
63.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 6 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Whit Weeks) to the LSU 29 for a 1ST down. Whit Weeks ejected for Targeting. Similar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
63.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
63.2%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
63.3%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
63.3%
T. Smack 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5263% → 63%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
63.5%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
63.3%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
62.9%
Grant Chadwick punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:4737% → 38%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
63.1%
Lagway, DJ pass incomplete to Wilson III, Eugene, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Cooley, Tamarcus) 8 yards to the FLA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLA.Similar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
63.1%
DJ Lagway run for 7 yds to the FLA 36Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
62.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
62.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 17 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
62.1%
Baugh, Jadan rush for 7 yards to the LSU36, PENALTY FLA holding (Hansen, Hayden) 10 yards to the FLA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+8
62.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 8 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+2
62.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 2 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-12
62.0%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Dashawn Spears return for 12 yds to the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5963% → 62%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
62.5%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
62.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Bauer SharpSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+3
61.7%
Grant Chadwick punt for 58 yds , Vernell Brown III returns for 3 yds to the FLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:1137% → 37%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
62.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the FLA 8Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+5
62.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 5 yds to the FLA 13Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 3
OWN 13
-6
62.5%
Lagway, DJ pass complete to Baugh, Jadan for 87 yards to the LSU0, PENALTY FLA holding (Harris, Knijeah) 6 yards to the FLA7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 9
OWN 7
-1
62.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 6Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
63.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 38 yds, downed at the FLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:4963% → 62%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
63.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+18
63.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 18 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
63.6%
Harlem Berry run for 2 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-10
63.6%
Berry, Harlem rush for 4 yards to the FLA20, PENALTY LSU holding (Moore, Braelin) 10 yards to the FLA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+4
62.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 4 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 14
OPP 30
-5
60.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Weston Davis) to the FLA 35Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+5
60.7%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+47
62.2%
D. Ramos 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2038% → 39%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
61.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 11 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
61.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
60.7%
DJ Lagway run for 5 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
60.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 1 yd to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
60.1%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+18
61.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 50 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 18 yds to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:0363% → 72%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
62.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+8
62.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 8 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+15
62.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 15 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
64.1%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
64.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Ju'Juan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+23
63.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 23 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
65.3%
Aaron Anderson run for 2 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+9
65.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Nic Anderson for 9 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
65.3%
Nussmeier, Garrett rush for 9 yards to the FLA11, PENALTY LSU holding (Moore, Braelin) 10 yards to the FLA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+7
64.8%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 7 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+23
72.4%
G. Nussmeier pass to Z. Thomas for 23 yds for a TD (D. Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0829% → 41%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
70.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 18 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
69.6%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Jake Slaughter) to the FLA 38Similar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+8
70.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Muizz Tounkara for 8 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
69.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 3
50
+25
69.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 25 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
67.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
67.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Vernell Brown IIISimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+9
68.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 9 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
67.5%
Duke Clark run for 1 yd to the LSU 10Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
67.6%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Tony LivingstonSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
56.0%
D. Lagway pass to A. Mizell for 10 yds for a TD (T. Smack KICK)Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
59.4%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tamarcus Cooley) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:0262% → 63%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.0%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
61.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 5 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
61.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 14 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
63.9%
Caden Durham run for 5 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
64.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Bauer SharpSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+2
63.9%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
62.5%
Grant Chadwick punt for 32 yds, downed at the FLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:5441% → 42%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
59.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 8 yds to the FLA 22Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+15
58.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 15 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.6%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
58.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 3 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-10
57.6%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted A.J. Haulcy return for 10 yds to the FLA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:2365% → 69%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
64.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
64.4%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Sharp, Bauer, PENALTY FLA pass interference (Denson, Sharif) 11 yards to the FLA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
65.6%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-5
65.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Tyree Adams) to the FLA 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+45
69.4%
Damian Ramos 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:2235% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 9 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
63.2%
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
63.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 18 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
61.6%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Vernell Brown IIISimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
61.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for no gain to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-9
63.3%
DJ Lagway sacked by Davhon Keys and Patrick Payton for a loss of 9 yards to the FLA 46Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
66.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5766% → 64%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
65.8%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
65.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
64.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+20
63.6%
Grant Chadwick punt for 57 yds , Vernell Brown III returns for 20 yds to the FLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16INT TD
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:3338% → 21%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
62.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
61.7%
DJ Lagway run for 10 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
61.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Vernell Brown IIISimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-10
61.5%
Lagway, DJ pass complete to Hansen, Hayden for 5 yards to the LSU36, PENALTY FLA holding (Kearney, Roderick) 10 yards to the FLA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+2
63.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 18
OPP 49
-58
79.2%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Dashawn Spears return for 58 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 5:3621% → 19%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.2%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 20Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
79.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 9 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
78.9%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 2 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
80.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 4 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
79.5%
DJ Lagway sacked by Jacobian Guillory II for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 27Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+22
80.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 22 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
78.3%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-10
78.6%
Jackson, Ja'Kobi rush for 2 yards to the LSU46, PENALTY FLA holding (Harris, Knijeah) 10 yards to the FLA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+6
81.2%
DJ Lagway run for 6 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+2
81.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 9
50
0
81.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:1480% → 84%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+31
80.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 31 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
83.8%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 8 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
84.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
83.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 1 yd to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
83.7%
Grant Chadwick punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:1616% → 15%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
84.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 9 yds to the FLA 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+13
84.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 13 yds to the FLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
84.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 28Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
83.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 2 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
83.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Vernell Brown IIISimilar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
85.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 48 yds · 2:0785% → 87%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+65
85.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 65 yds to the FLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
87.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for no gain to the FLA 16Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-17
87.8%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for a loss of 17 yards to the FLA 33 Ju'Juan Johnson fumbled, forced by George Gumbs Jr., recovered by LSU Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 27
OPP 33
-7
86.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Dijon Johnson return for 7 yds to the FLA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:2916% → 11%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
83.6%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 6 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
85.3%
DJ Lagway run for 6 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
85.5%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 9
50
0
85.7%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 9
50
+7
86.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+6
86.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 6 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
87.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 1 yd to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
88.8%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted, touchback. Tamarcus Cooley return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3692% → 93%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
92.4%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
92.4%
Caden Durham run for 5 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
92.9%
Caden Durham run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
92.5%
Grant Chadwick punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23INT
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:437% → 7%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
92.6%
DJ Lagway sacked by Dominick McKinley for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 14Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+16
92.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 16 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
91.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 16 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
92.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 5 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
93.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
93.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
93.5%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted DJ Pickett return for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:4496% → 97%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
96.4%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
96.5%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+51
96.7%
Caden Durham run for 51 yds to the FLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 5Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 7Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:08
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Dashawn Spears return for 58 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q2 3:25
D. Lagway pass to A. Mizell for 10 yds for a TD (T. Smack KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q2 7:33
G. Nussmeier pass to Z. Thomas for 23 yds for a TD (D. Ramos KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com