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USF

South Florida 18 at Florida 16

FLA
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDTDSAFETYTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:13 · Tommy Doman punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Joshua Porter at the USF 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense+5.7Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Nico Gramatica 25 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +2.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:03: Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 66 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +22.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:03: Timeout Florida, clock 02:03 — USF win probability +8.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. SAFETY · Q3 0:13: Team Safety — USF win probability +8.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:29: Eugene Wilson III 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick) — USF win probability +2.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:51USF 4th & 6 at FLA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:39FLA 4th & 6 at USF 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:25USF 4th & 1 at FLA 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52USF 4th & 13 at FLA 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:13FLA 4th & 14 at USF 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:18USF 4th & 2 at USF 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50FLA 4th & 4 at USF 23, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:15FLA 4th & 18 at FLA 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:15FLA 4th & 18 at FLA 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:11USF 4th & 2 at USF 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:27USF 4th & 8 at USF 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:13FLA 4th & 5 at USF 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−2.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:22USF 4th & 18 at USF 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−5.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:09USF 4th & 7 at USF 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:52FLA 4th & 4 at USF 46, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−3.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:52USF 4th & 7 at FLA 40, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:25FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 42, down 8
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 2:03USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:558% → 9%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.9%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
91.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 4 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
91.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 8 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
91.6%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
91.5%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
91.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 6 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
91.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Wyatt SullivanSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
91.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 4 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
91.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
91.1%
Chase Leon punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FG
15 plays · 81 yds · 6:0691% → 90%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
91.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 14 yds to the FLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
90.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 15 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
90.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 12 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
90.8%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Tony LivingstonSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
90.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 10 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
90.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
90.6%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+7
90.5%
DJ Lagway run for 7 yds to the USF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
90.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
90.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the USF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
90.0%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Tony LivingstonSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
90.0%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Lovett,Bryce) 5 yards from USF13 to USF18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
89.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for no gain to the USF 18Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+9
89.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 9 yds to the USF 9Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+28
89.7%
Trey Smack 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FG
20 plays · 55 yds · 5:3710% → 13%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 15 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
89.1%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 33Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
89.1%
Byrum Brown run for 12 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
88.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 8 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
88.3%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the FLA 46Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
88.2%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
87.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 46Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
87.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+9
87.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 9 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+5
87.7%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass incomplete deep right to Neptune,Christian thrown to UFL06 PENALTY UFL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UFL37 to UFL32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
87.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 15 yds to the FLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
86.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
86.8%
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the FLA 15Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
86.8%
PENALTY USF False Start (McLaughlin,Connor) 5 yards from UFL15 to UFL20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
87.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+38
86.6%
Nico Gramatica 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FG
18 plays · 57 yds · 7:2687% → 85%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 15 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
87.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 6 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+8
87.3%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 8 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jarvis Lee) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
87.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 1 yd to the USF 45Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+9
87.1%
Eugene Wilson III run for 9 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
86.9%
DJ Lagway run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 37Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+5
86.7%
PENALTY USF Offside (Lee,Devin) 5 yards from USF37 to USF32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
86.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 2 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+10
86.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 10 yds to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
86.4%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Ja'Kobi rush middle for 20 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:48 PENALTY UFL Holding (Waites,Kamryn) 10 yards from USF20 to USF30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+1
86.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the USF 29Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+15
85.7%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Baugh,Jadan rush left for 4 yards loss to the USF33 (Chenault,James) PENALTY USF Personal Foul (Smiley,Levi) 15 yards from USF29 to USF14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
86.1%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Lagway,DJ pass complete short right to Livingston,Tony caught at USF11, for 14 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:45 PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Hansen,Hayden) 15 yards from USF14 to USF29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 25
OPP 29
0
85.9%
DJ Lagway run for no gain to the USF 29Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 25
OPP 29
+11
85.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 11 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 14
OPP 18
0
84.3%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+36
85.2%
Trey Smack 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3016% → 16%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sam FranklinSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
84.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sam Franklin for 3 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+5
84.4%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
84.0%
Chase Leon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:2185% → 86%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
84.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 17Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+28
84.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 28 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
85.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 2 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+24
85.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 24 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
85.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
85.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-1
84.6%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 23Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
85.5%
Trey Smack 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 1:4015% → 20%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for 15 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
84.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for 6 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
83.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 3 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+22
82.9%
Alvon Isaac run for 22 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
81.1%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum rush left for 4 yards gain to the UFL25, out of bounds at UFL25 PENALTY USF Holding (Herring,Zane) 10 yards from UFL29 to UFL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+4
83.4%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+8
82.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 8 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+20
84.0%
Byrum Brown run for 20 yds to the FLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
80.2%
Nico Gramatica 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:2883% → 81%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for 2 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
82.8%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-1
81.9%
DJ Lagway sacked by Mac Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 22Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-5
81.1%
PENALTY UFL Delay Of Game 5 yards from UFL22 to UFL17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+5
81.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 63 yds , Joshua Porter returns for 5 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+5
81.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 63 yds , Joshua Porter returns for 5 yds to the USF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4918% → 19%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
81.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 5 yds to the USF 15Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+11
81.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 11 yds to the USF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
81.0%
Cartevious Norton run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 25Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+8
81.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 8 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
80.2%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 34Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
80.8%
Chase Leon punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:2281% → 82%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
80.7%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 13Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+26
80.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for 26 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.5%
DJ Lagway pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.5%
DJ Lagway pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1021% → 20%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
79.5%
Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
78.4%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
77.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Wyatt SullivanSimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
78.3%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
80.0%
Chase Leon punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:5980% → 78%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
79.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 6 yds to the FLA 17Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+9
79.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 9 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
79.6%
Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FLA 18Similar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 18
OWN 18
+32
79.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
50
-5
81.5%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Kearney,Roderick) 5 yards from USF50 to UFL45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+1
79.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to TJ Abrams for 1 yd to the FLA 46Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+7
79.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+2
80.0%
DJ Lagway run for 2 yds to the USF 45Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
78.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Joshua Porter at the USF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 0:5722% → 46%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
78.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 15 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
77.5%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
77.2%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+66
54.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 66 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14SF
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4057% → 45%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
57.2%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 23Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
56.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 10 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
56.9%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Barber,Austin) 5 yards from UFL33 to UFL28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
53.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 3 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 31
OWN 0
0
45.3%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:3865% → 62%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
35.0%
Alvon Isaac run for 2 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
35.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-5
36.1%
PENALTY USF False Start (Herring,Zane) 5 yards from USF34 to USF29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
38.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q4 14:36
4TH & 13
OWN 29
-5
39.0%
(14:44) Leon,Chase punt 46 yards to the UFL25 PENALTY USF Illegal Motion 5 yards from USF29 to USF24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 18
OWN 24
+40
37.7%
Chase Leon punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 20 for a 1ST down , Vernell Brown III returns for 40 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (Rico Watson III) to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4144% → 38%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
44.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the USF 13Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
41.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the USF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
41.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the USF 4Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
40.2%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q4 12:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.7%
Eugene Wilson III 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1372% → 71%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.4%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Wyatt SullivanSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
29.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 2 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
29.2%
Chase Leon punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Vernell Brown III at the FLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 5:1130% → 20%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
29.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 26Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
27.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 8 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
27.0%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Ja'Kobi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UFL35 (Stokes,Jaelen) PENALTY USF Offside (Celiscar,Josh) 5 yards from UFL34 to UFL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 5
OWN 39
0
29.7%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+9
28.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 9 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
28.4%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
27.7%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the USF 45Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-1
25.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 46Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
19.7%
Tommy Doman punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19MISSED FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:4987% → 93%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
12.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 6 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
11.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 15 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
10.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 16 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
9.4%
Alvon Isaac run for 3 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-3
8.6%
Byrum Brown sacked by Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 43Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+3
7.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 3 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+58
7.5%
Nico Gramatica 58 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:2414% → 5%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
13.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Vernell Brown IIISimilar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
7.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
7.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Vernell Brown IIISimilar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
5.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21FG
13 plays · 87 yds · 2:2293% → 95%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
6.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Joshua PorterSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+13
6.9%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass incomplete short right to Singleton,Keshaun thrown to USF25 QB hurried by Woods,Jayden, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Johnson,Dijon) 13 yards from USF11 to USF24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
5.5%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Isaac,Alvon rush right for 0 yards to the USF24 (Boireau,Michai; Woods,Jayden) PENALTY UFL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bett,Brendan) 15 yards from USF24 to USF39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
3.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for 29 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
3.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Joshua Porter for 12 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
3.1%
Alvon Isaac run for 6 yds to the FLA 14Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+6
2.9%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the FLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
2.4%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the FLA 4Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
2.3%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the FLA 2Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
4.6%
Nico Gramatica 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:03
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 66 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
-22.8
SAFETY · Q3 0:13
Team Safety
-8.7
TD · Q3 2:03
Timeout Florida, clock 02:03
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com