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GAST

Georgia State 7 at Ole Miss 63

MISS
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—MISS 99.8%Lucas Carneiro 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 42 · Q3 0:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:20 · Lucas Carneiro 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+20.2Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+23.8Blowout margin+10.3Garbage-time factor+12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:31: Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:19: Christian Veilleux pass complete to Javon Robinson for 43 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +2.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:21: Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds for a TD (T. Chambliss Run For Two-point Conversion) — MISS win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:04: Kewan Lacy run for 42 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:32: Austin Simmons pass complete to Caleb Odom for 9 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 13:29GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:20GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:35GAST 4th & 1 at MISS 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:04GAST 4th & 9 at MISS 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:04GAST 4th & 9 at MISS 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:28MISS 4th & 10 at GAST 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:24GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:10MISS 4th & 1 at GAST 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:12GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 36, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:39MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 13, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:13GAST 4th & 4 at MISS 47, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:20MISS 4th & 12 at GAST 16, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:03GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:18GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 21, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:32MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 37, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:14GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 12, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:00GAST 4th & 11 at MISS 18, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:32MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:31MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:19GAST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:21MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:04MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:32MISS Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:31MISS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:38MISS Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:33MISS Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:292% → 3%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
97.7%
Djay Braswell run for 2 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.6%
Christian Veilleux run for 2 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
97.5%
Christian Veilleux run for 1 yd to the GAST 37Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
97.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Javon Robinson for 1 yd to the GAST 38Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+50
97.3%
Reed Chandley punt for 43 yds , Harrison Wallace III returns for 50 yds to the MISS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3897% → 97%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
97.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 14 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
97.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 13 yds to the GAST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
97.4%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 38 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q1 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
97.3%
Djay Braswell run for 5 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
97.2%
Christian Veilleux run for 1 yd to the GAST 32Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Reed Chandley punt for 47 yds , Harrison Wallace III returns for no gain to the MISS 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4INT
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0997% → 97%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
97.1%
(08:31) Shotgun Simmons,Austin pass incomplete deep left to Lee,Cayden thrown to OM46 PENALTY GS Holding (Hopkins,D-Icey) 10 yards from OM21 to OM31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-25
97.1%
Austin Simmons pass intercepted Chams Diagne return for 25 yds to the MISS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 4:033% → 4%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.9%
Branson Robinson run for no gain to the MISS 25Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
96.9%
Djay Braswell run for 1 yd to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+8
96.8%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for 8 yds to the MISS 16Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
96.8%
Cameran Brown run for 2 yds to the MISS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
96.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the MISS 11Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
96.5%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the MISS 9Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-4
96.5%
Cameran Brown sacked by Zxavian Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 13Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
96.5%
Liam Rickman 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6INT
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:5297% → 96%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
96.6%
(04:00) Shotgun Simmons,Austin rush middle for 10 yards gain to the OM30 (Robinson,Josiah) PENALTY OM Holding (Kutas,Patrick) 10 yards from OM20 to OM10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+28
96.5%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Winston Watkins for 28 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+31
96.5%
Deuce Alexander run for 31 yds to the GAST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
96.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Caleb Odom for 9 yds to the GAST 22Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+5
96.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 5 yds to the GAST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.4%
Austin Simmons pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:484% → 4%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
96.2%
Rashad Amos run for 15 yds to the GAST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.0%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the GAST 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+17
95.7%
Christian Veilleux run for 17 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
95.6%
Djay Braswell run for 1 yd to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
95.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Djay BraswellSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
95.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Leo BlackburnSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
95.7%
Reed Chandley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:2696% → 96%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+47
95.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 47 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
96.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the GAST 36Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+7
95.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 7 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+5
95.8%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 5 yds to the GAST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
95.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the GAST 22Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-2
95.7%
Austin Simmons run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 24Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
95.5%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
95.5%
Lucas Carneiro 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:005% → 4%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.5%
Branson Robinson run for 4 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Camden Overton-HowardSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+18
95.6%
Reed Chandley punt for 45 yds , Harrison Wallace III returns for 18 yds to the MISS 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:4296% → 97%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
95.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 19 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.6%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+20
95.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 20 yds to the GAST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
95.6%
Kewan Lacy run for 6 yds to the GAST 11Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+1
95.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the GAST 10Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
95.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the GAST 8Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+2
95.1%
Dae'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the GAST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
95.4%
Kewan Lacy run for 5 yds to the GAST 1Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:043% → 6%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
96.9%
Rashad Amos run for 29 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
96.5%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
96.5%
Branson Robinson run for no gain to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+43
94.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Javon Robinson for 43 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 4:4795% → 97%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.7%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 8 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
94.8%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
94.5%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
94.7%
Austin Simmons run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
50
+3
94.9%
Austin Simmons run for 3 yds to the GAST 47Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
94.9%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the GAST 41Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
94.7%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.8%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
94.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Cayden Lee for 9 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
94.2%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Caleb Odom for 4 yds to the GAST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
94.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the GAST 22Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+7
94.5%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 7 yds to the GAST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
94.6%
Austin Simmons run for 6 yds to the GAST 9Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-1
94.5%
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 10Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+8
94.2%
Austin Simmons pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 8 yds to the GAST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds for a TD (T. Chambliss Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.5%
Carneiro,Lucas kick attempt good (H: Bird,Oscar, LS: Short,Carter) PENALTY GS Offside (Diagne,Chams) 2 yards from GS03 to GS01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.5%
C. Veilleux takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4997% → 99%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Caleb OdomSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.7%
Austin Simmons run for 11 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
97.3%
Austin Simmons sacked by Josiah Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 30Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+24
97.4%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 24 yds to the GAST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.6%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the GAST 42Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
99.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 42 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.0%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.0%
PENALTY GS False Start (Williams,Tyhler) 5 yards from GS29 to GS24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
99.0%
Christian Veilleux pass intercepted Zxavian Harris return for 1 yd to the GAST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0599% → 100%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.2%
Deuce Alexander run for 7 yds to the GAST 13Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
99.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the GAST 11Similar
Q3 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Caleb Odom for 9 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the GAST 28Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.6%
(09:46) Shotgun Brown,Cameran pass incomplete short middle to Blackburn,Leo thrown to GS31 PENALTY OM Pass Interference (Graves Jr.,Chris) 6 yards from GS28 to GS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.6%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the GAST 39Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Rashad AmosSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+3
99.6%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 3 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+18
99.7%
Reed Chandley punt for 56 yds , Harrison Wallace III returns for 18 yds to the MISS 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
99.7%
PENALTY OM False Start (Wilkins,PJ) 3 yards from OM07 to OM04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+10
99.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 10 yds to the MISS 14Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+4
99.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Winston WatkinsSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
99.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Caleb OdomSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
99.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 10
OWN 18
-5
99.7%
(06:59) Bird,Oscar punt 55 yards to the GS27 Robinson,Javon return for loss of 3 yards to the GS24 (Alexander,Deuce; Beavers,Cedrick) PENALTY OM Illegal Formation 5 yards from OM18 to OM13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 15
OWN 13
+50
99.7%
Oscar Bird punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GAST 48 Georgia State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the GAST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.4%
Djay Braswell run for 10 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.4%
Branson Robinson run for 5 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
99.2%
Branson Robinson run for 1 yd to the MISS 47Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Cameran Brown for no gain to the MISS 47Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
99.8%
Deuce Alexander run for 8 yds to the GAST 45Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+16
99.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 16 yds to the GAST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
99.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 9 yds to the GAST 20Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+6
99.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 6 yds to the GAST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
99.8%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the GAST 8Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
99.8%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the GAST 5Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-6
99.8%
Austin Simmons run for a loss of 6 yards to the GAST 11 Austin Simmons fumbled, recovered by GAST Austin SimmonsSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 7
OPP 11
-5
99.8%
PENALTY OM Delay Of Game 5 yards from GS11 to GS16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
99.8%
Lucas Carneiro 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Dennis Murray Jr. for no gain to the GAST 25Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 6 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Georgia State Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Reed Chandley punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 39 , returns for no gain to the MISS 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+35
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Caleb Odom for 35 yds to the GAST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 26 yds for a TD (Mike Baker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Cameran Brown run for no gain to the GAST 19Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.9%
Cameran Brown run for 4 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 2 yds to the GAST 21Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Reed Chandley punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 5 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Oscar Bird punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GAST 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
99.9%
TJ Peyton run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 7Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 12
OWN 7
0
99.9%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Keron MiltonSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 12
OWN 7
-3
99.9%
PENALTY GS Delay Of Game 3 yards from GS07 to GS04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 15
OWN 4
+8
99.9%
Cameran Brown run for 8 yds to the GAST 12Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Reed Chandley punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Izaiah Hartrup at the MISS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
99.9%
Logan Diggs run for 15 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.9%
Logan Diggs run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 48Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+37
99.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 37 yds to the GAST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
99.9%
PENALTY OM False Start (Fields,Ethan) 5 yards from GS11 to GS16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 15
OPP 16
-1
99.9%
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 17Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 16
OPP 17
+4
99.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Izaiah Hartrup for 4 yds to the GAST 13Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Izaiah Hartrup for 13 yds for a TD (Mike Baker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+49
100.0%
TJ Peyton run for 49 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
100.0%
TJ Peyton run for 1 yd to the MISS 30Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+6
100.0%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Wesley Campbell VI for 6 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+7
100.0%
Cameran Brown run for 7 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
100.0%
Cameran Brown run for 2 yds to the MISS 15Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
100.0%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Lane WadleSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
100.0%
PENALTY GS Delay Of Game 5 yards from OM15 to OM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+2
100.0%
Cameran Brown pass complete to DJ Riles for 2 yds to the MISS 18Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 11
OPP 18
0
100.0%
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Derrick Avery Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
100.0%
Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+51
100.0%
Logan Diggs run for 51 yds to the GAST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
100.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 5 yds to the GAST 18Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+7
100.0%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the GAST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
100.0%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the GAST 5Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds for a TD (Mike Baker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
TJ Peyton run for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:21
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds for a TD (T. Chambliss Run For Two-point Conversion)
+2.3
TD · Q2 5:19
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Javon Robinson for 43 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q2 7:31
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com