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ECU

East Carolina 26 at NC State 21

NCSU
2024 · Go Bowling Military Bowl · Dec 28, 2024 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:22 · Luke Larsen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DK Kaufman at the NCSU 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+4.1Home team on offense−13.2Score differential−4.0Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:58: Dacari Collins 8 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick) — NCSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 9:17: Katin Houser 4 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick) — ECU win probability +14.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:04: Justin Joly 15 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick) — NCSU win probability +21.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 9:49: Hollywood Smothers 33 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick) — NCSU win probability +30.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:33: Rahjai Harris 86 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ECU win probability +56.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:38NCSU 4th & 1 at ECU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:34NCSU 4th & 8 at ECU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−4.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:17ECU 4th & 4 at NCSU 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−6.2
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:55ECU 4th & 1 at NCSU 38, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−4.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:58NCSU 4th & 14 at ECU 37, down 13
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:23ECU 4th & 8 at NCSU 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−9.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:41NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 35, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:04NCSU 4th & 2 at ECU 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−7.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:22ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−3.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:22NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.6%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:59NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 48, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:43ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:58NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:17ECU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:04NCSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:49NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−1.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:33ECU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    79.3%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 6:1671% → 70%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 12 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
71.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 4 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
71.1%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Noah Rogers) to the NCSU 36Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+17
71.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 17 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
71.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 9 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-2
71.1%
CJ Bailey sacked by J.D. Lampley for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 40Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
71.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 7 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
71.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 35Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+10
70.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 10 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
70.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the ECU 24Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 1
OPP 24
-1
70.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5530% → 35%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.9%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Yannick Smith) to the ECU 20Similar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+19
69.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 19 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
69.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
69.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
50
+16
69.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 16 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
68.7%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 35Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+6
68.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+6
68.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the NCSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
68.2%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the NCSU 20Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
68.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Casey Kelly for 1 yd to the NCSU 19Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
64.7%
Katin Houser 19 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:5566% → 63%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
65.6%
Jordan Waters run for 18 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
65.4%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
65.5%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
64.5%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
64.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 8 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-10
64.7%
Bailey, CJ pass incomplete to Raphael, Kendrick, PENALTY NCSU holding (Erickson, Val) 10 yards to the NCSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+44
63.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 44 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
65.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the ECU 17Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-4
65.0%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 21Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+5
62.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 5 yds to the ECU 16Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
62.6%
Kanoah Vinesett 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:1039% → 47%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for no gain to the ECU 20Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+13
61.2%
Katin Houser run for 13 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
59.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
58.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
58.7%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
58.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 12 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
57.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 15 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
56.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the NCSU 16Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+4
56.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
55.7%
London Montgomery run for no gain to the NCSU 12Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
54.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+6
54.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 6 yds to the NCSU 6Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
53.0%
Noah Perez 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 5:0653% → 62%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
52.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 15 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
53.0%
CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
53.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 10 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
53.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 15 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
53.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 16 yds to the ECU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
54.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds to the ECU 11Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
54.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the ECU 11Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
52.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the ECU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
53.5%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dante DanielsSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
53.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the ECU 8Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
62.3%
Dacari Collins 8 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 1:4642% → 54%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.4%
London Montgomery run for 7 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
57.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony Smith, broken up by Bishop FitzgeraldSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
57.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 13 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
55.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 1 yd to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+17
55.7%
Katin Houser run for 17 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
52.9%
London Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 38Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+7
54.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 7 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+7
53.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 7 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
52.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jhari PattersonSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+42
46.3%
Noah Perez 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3949% → 72%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 20Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
51.7%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 23Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+30
52.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 30 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
47.3%
Yannick Smith run for 7 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-3
46.9%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 43 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by ECU Katin HouserSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
47.2%
Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+21
48.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 21 yds to the NCSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
45.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
45.2%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the NCSU 16Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+12
45.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 12 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.0%
London Montgomery run for no gain to the NCSU 4Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.2%
Katin Houser 4 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
28.5%
East Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 5:0737% → 29%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
37.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 20 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
38.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 8 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-10
38.1%
Bailey, CJ rush for 13 yards to the EASTCRLINA25, PENALTY NCSU holding (Smith, Kamen) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+7
35.9%
CJ Bailey run for 7 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+8
35.7%
CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
37.9%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 34Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+3
36.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 3 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-6
32.4%
CJ Bailey sacked by Julien Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 37Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 14
OPP 37
0
28.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 36 yds, downed at the ECU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2777% → 81%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+40
22.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 40 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
20.4%
Katin Houser run for 16 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
19.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
19.1%
Katin Houser run for no gain to the NCSU 30Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
18.6%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
17.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jhari PattersonSimilar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
19.5%
Noah Perez 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:1526% → 46%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
25.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Jordan WatersSimilar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
24.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 7 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
24.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari Collins, broken up by Dameon WilsonSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+4
24.3%
Sean Brown run for 4 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+38
24.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 23 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down East Carolina Penalty, Roughing Passer (D'Anta Johnson) to the ECU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
27.9%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the ECU 23Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
26.7%
CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the ECU 15Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
25.1%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+15
46.4%
Justin Joly 15 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3166% → 64%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
34.0%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
32.4%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-2
32.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-5
34.8%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Kingston McKinstry) to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
35.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DK Kaufman at the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 1:2743% → 74%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
42.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+23
42.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 23 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
73.7%
Hollywood Smothers 33 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4536% → 44%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
62.7%
Katin Houser run for 4 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
62.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 4 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
61.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 38Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
61.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Yannick SmithSimilar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
62.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.9%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Tamarcus Cooley return for no gain to the NCSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:3267% → 67%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
67.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+22
66.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 22 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
69.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
70.2%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
67.3%
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 46 CJ Bailey fumbled, forced by J.D. Lampley, recovered by NCSUSimilar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
66.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dante DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2845% → 45%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
55.3%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the NCSU 46Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
55.4%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Tamarcus Cooley return for no gain to the NCSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4569% → 75%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 42Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
70.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+3
70.4%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
74.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds, downed at the ECU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 0:1832% → 88%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
68.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Kelan RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+86
12.2%
Rahjai Harris 86 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:3822% → 24%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
22.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 11 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
21.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 9 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
24.2%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Dontavius Nash return for no gain to the ECU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0496% → 97%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
3.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:33
Rahjai Harris 86 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-56
TD · Q4 9:49
Hollywood Smothers 33 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
+30.8
TD · Q4 13:04
Justin Joly 15 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
+21.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com