2024 · Go Bowling Military Bowl · Dec 28, 2024 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreECU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:34 · Kanoah Vinesett 34 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:58: Dacari Collins 8 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick) — NCSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 9:17: Katin Houser 4 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick) — ECU win probability +14.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:04: Justin Joly 15 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick) — NCSU win probability +21.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 9:49: Hollywood Smothers 33 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick) — NCSU win probability +30.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:33: Rahjai Harris 86 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ECU win probability +56.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 8:38NCSU 4th & 1 at ECU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.2%71% to convertField goal69.0%−0.268% to makePunt68.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 13:34NCSU 4th & 8 at ECU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snapGo for it60.7%−0.732% to convertField goalTheir call61.4%81% to makePunt56.6%−4.8average punt
- Q2 7:17ECU 4th & 4 at NCSU 6, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snapGo for it45.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call45.4%−0.591% to makePunt39.7%−6.2average punt
- Q3 11:55ECU 4th & 1 at NCSU 38, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.4%70% to convertField goal48.4%−4.138% to makePunt48.4%−4.1average punt
- Q3 3:58NCSU 4th & 14 at ECU 37, down 13Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it27.1%−0.819% to convertField goal27.9%40% to makePuntTheir call27.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 1:23ECU 4th & 8 at NCSU 28, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snapGo for it80.7%−0.734% to convertField goalTheir call81.5%60% to makePunt72.3%−9.2average punt
- Q3 0:41NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 35, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt24.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:04NCSU 4th & 2 at ECU 15, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.0%56% to convertField goal22.6%−0.583% to makePunt15.7%−7.3average punt
- Q4 11:22ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 24, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snapGo for it62.3%−3.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.8%average punt
- Q4 4:22NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 46, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt63.6%−3.8average punt
- Q4 1:59NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 48, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 71.9% before the snapGo for it71.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.3%−3.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:43ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.3%97% to makeGo for two34.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:58NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.2%97% to makeGo for two58.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:17ECU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.1%97% to makeGo for two65.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:04NCSU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.8%97% to makeGo for two31.5%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 9:49NCSU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.2%97% to makeGo for two60.1%−1.245% to convert
- Q4 1:33ECU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick79.3%−1.597% to makeGo for twoTheir call80.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNCSUDrive 1DOWNS12 plays · 50 yds · 6:1671% → 70%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 12 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+17
71.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 17 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
71.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 9 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-2
71.1%
CJ Bailey sacked by J.D. Lampley for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 40Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+10
70.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 10 yds to the ECU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5530% → 35%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+19
69.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 19 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
69.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
50
+16
69.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 16 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3MISSED FG12 plays · 72 yds · 5:5566% → 63%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
64.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 8 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-10
64.7%
Bailey, CJ pass incomplete to Raphael, Kendrick, PENALTY NCSU holding (Erickson, Val) 10 yards to the NCSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+5
62.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 5 yds to the ECU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FG14 plays · 74 yds · 6:1039% → 47%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for no gain to the ECU 20Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
58.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 12 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
57.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 15 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+6
54.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 6 yds to the NCSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD14 plays · 78 yds · 5:0653% → 62%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
52.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 15 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
53.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 10 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
53.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 15 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6FG16 plays · 51 yds · 1:4642% → 54%
Q2 1:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
57.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony Smith, broken up by Bishop FitzgeraldSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
57.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 13 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
55.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 1 yd to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+7
54.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 7 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+7
53.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 7 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3949% → 72%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 20Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+30
52.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 30 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-3
46.9%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 43 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by ECU Katin HouserSimilar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+12
45.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 12 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 5:0737% → 29%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
37.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 20 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-10
38.1%
Bailey, CJ rush for 13 yards to the EASTCRLINA25, PENALTY NCSU holding (Smith, Kamen) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-6
32.4%
CJ Bailey sacked by Julien Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10MISSED FG7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2777% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD9 plays · 72 yds · 3:1526% → 46%
Q3 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
24.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 7 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
24.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari Collins, broken up by Dameon WilsonSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+38
24.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 23 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down East Carolina Penalty, Roughing Passer (D'Anta Johnson) to the ECU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3166% → 64%
Q4 12:13
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-2
32.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-5
34.8%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Kingston McKinstry) to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
35.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DK Kaufman at the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD3 plays · 60 yds · 1:2743% → 74%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
73.7%
Hollywood Smothers 33 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14INT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4536% → 44%
NCSUDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 31 yds · 2:3267% → 67%
Q4 4:46
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
67.3%
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 46 CJ Bailey fumbled, forced by J.D. Lampley, recovered by NCSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2845% → 45%
NCSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4569% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD4 plays · 86 yds · 0:1832% → 88%
NCSUDrive 19INT4 plays · 20 yds · 0:3822% → 24%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
22.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 11 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
21.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 9 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
24.2%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Dontavius Nash return for no gain to the ECU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:33
Rahjai Harris 86 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-56
TD · Q4 9:49
Hollywood Smothers 33 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
+30.8
TD · Q4 13:04
Justin Joly 15 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
+21.3