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ARST

Arkansas State 44 at Southern Miss 28

USM
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:21 · Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense−9.2Pregame prior−16.4Score differential−4.1Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:24: Ethan Crawford 5 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs Kick) — USM win probability +17.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:48: Corey Rucker 13 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick) — ARST win probability +14.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:54: Jalen Washington 4 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs Kick) — USM win probability +23.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:37: Ja'Quez Cross 10 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick) — ARST win probability +10.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:24: Clune Van Andel 36 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +5.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:29USM 4th & 13 at USM 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:07ARST 4th & 1 at USM 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−2.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:10USM 4th & 5 at USM 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:12ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:21USM 4th & 1 at USM 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.4%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:02USM 4th & 7 at ARST 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:14ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:39USM 4th & 9 at USM 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:33ARST 4th & 1 at USM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−2.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:22ARST 4th & 5 at USM 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−7.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:24ARST 4th & 7 at USM 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−6.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:49USM 4th & 1 at ARST 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−2.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    -3.5%−9.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:20ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 17, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:48USM 4th & 1 at USM 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:49ARST 4th & 1 at USM 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−1.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:58ARST 4th & 1 at USM 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.8
    83% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:50ARST 4th & 2 at USM 3, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:49ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:11ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:26USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:59ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:24USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:48ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:54USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:37ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:57USM Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0973% → 73%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
27.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 14 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
27.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 11 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
27.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 48Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+5
27.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+5
27.8%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the USM 38Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
27.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the USM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
27.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 7 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+8
28.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 8 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
27.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 14 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2028% → 27%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.5%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.5%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 24Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
27.4%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Jayden Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 22Similar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-2
27.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
26.0%
Malik Hornsby 73 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4527% → 29%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 8 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
27.7%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 31Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
25.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Justyn Reid for 8 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
26.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
26.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
26.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
26.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Reed Jesiolowski for 7 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+14
26.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Face mask (14 yards) (Justin Hodges) to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
26.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the ARST 9Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
26.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 8 yds to the ARST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.0%
Kenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:1873% → 77%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
27.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+33
27.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 33 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
26.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
26.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
26.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 3 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
27.4%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
26.7%
Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the USM 14Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
26.7%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the USM 14Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
26.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
26.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
22.7%
Ja'Quez Cross 10 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2221% → 21%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
21.2%
Jalen Washington run for 1 yd to the USM 19Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+4
21.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
20.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
20.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5377% → 77%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
22.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for no gain to the ARST 27Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
22.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-2
22.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+13
22.6%
Ryan Heicher punt for 48 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 13 yds to the USM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:3719% → 36%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
19.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
19.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
19.3%
Ethan Crawford run for 1 yd to the USM 44Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+4
19.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
19.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 13 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
18.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the ARST 38Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
18.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+2
18.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+7
18.1%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Davis Dalton for 7 yds to the ARST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
18.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 24 yds to the ARST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.8%
Ethan Crawford 5 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:3870% → 84%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
30.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
29.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 10 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+41
29.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 41 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
30.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-5
30.3%
(05:04) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the right incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey thrown to the USM0; QB hurried by JOHNSON, Ryan, clock 04:59. PENALTY ASU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SMITH, Noah enforced 5 yards from the USM8 to the USM13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
30.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+13
16.1%
Corey Rucker 13 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:5215% → 39%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.5%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.3%
Ethan Crawford run for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
14.1%
(03:59) CRAWFORD, Ethan scrambles to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the USM28, End of Play, clock 03:54. PENALTY ASU Holding on HODGES, Justin enforced 10 yards from the USM30 to the USM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
14.8%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Larry Simmons for 6 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
14.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
50
-2
14.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Reed Jesiolowski for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 48Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+8
14.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 8 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+17
15.2%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 17 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
16.0%
(01:25) CRAWFORD, Ethan scrambles up the middle for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU31 (STEPHENS, Kamari), clock 01:17. PENALTY USM Holding on SAXTON, Wil enforced 10 yards from the ASU27 to the ASU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+30
15.0%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Reed Jesiolowski for 30 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.9%
Jalen Washington 4 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3067% → 65%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
33.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
33.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
33.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
34.7%
Ryan Heicher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
34.4%
E. Crawford takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1728% → 27%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
28.4%
(14:56) CRAWFORD, Ethan pass deep to the left complete for 38 yards to SIMMONS, Larry caught at the USM49 and advanced to the ASU37 (MAHONEY, Jordan), clock 14:46. PENALTY USM Illegal Forward Pass on CRAWFORD, Ethan enforced 4 yards from the USM25 to the USM21, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
28.2%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 5 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
27.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+19
26.9%
(13:50) LOFTON, Bryce punt 53 yards to the ASU21, JACKSON, Courtney returned 19 yards to the ASU40 (SLEDGE, Avery), clock 13:45. PENALTY USM Face mask ASU Holding on JACKSON, Braden , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
26.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 46 yds, downed at the ARST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:5574% → 87%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
26.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 30 yds to the USM 42 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Reagan Ealy) to the ARST 37Similar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 1
OWN 37
+9
25.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 9 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
25.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
24.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
24.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 10 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
24.1%
(11:11) QB Keeper RAYNOR, Jaylen rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the USM23, out of bounds, clock 11:05. PENALTY ASU Holding on ZOLLICOFFER, Elijah enforced 10 yards from the USM34 to the USM44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
24.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+7
25.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+12
25.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 12 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
25.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 3 yds to the USM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
23.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 12 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
13.3%
Ja'Quez Cross 10 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
15.8%
Ethan Crawford pass intercepted Jayden Jones return for 10 yds to the USM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5687% → 88%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
12.7%
Zak Wallace run for 13 yds Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Hunter Summers) to the USM 17Similar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 14
OPP 17
0
12.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+9
12.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
12.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
11.6%
Clune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1713% → 9%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
10.3%
(07:09) CRAWFORD, Ethan pass short up the middle incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the USM35, clock 07:03. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on HAM, Marvin enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the USM35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
9.4%
Ethan Crawford sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 22 Ethan Crawford fumbled, recovered by ARST Bryan Whitehead , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1390% → 96%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
9.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the USM 17Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-2
9.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 19Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
9.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
4.2%
Clune Van Andel 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:353% → 2%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
3.3%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 17 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
3.2%
Jalen Washington run for 13 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
3.3%
Ethan Crawford run for 21 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
2.8%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
2.5%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Noah Collins for 0 yards to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+10
2.3%
Ethan Crawford run for 10 yds to the ARST 15Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-2
2.1%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2197% → 97%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
3.0%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 16Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
3.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+1
3.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 1 yd to the ARST 17Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
3.1%
Ryan Heicher punt for 42 yds, downed at the USM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
16 plays · 74 yds · 6:182% → 6%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
1.8%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Marvin Ham for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 17Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+21
1.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jalen Washington for 21 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+26
1.6%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 36 yds to the ARST 26 Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) to the USM 46Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-5
1.5%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Blayne Toll and Tim Hardiman for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 41Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
1.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 6 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
1.2%
Ethan Crawford run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
50
+3
1.1%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 3 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
1.1%
Jalen Washington run for no gain to the ARST 47Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+13
1.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 13 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
1.1%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Reed Jesiolowski for 16 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.2%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
1.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the ARST 4Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
1.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the ARST 3Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.4%
Ethan Crawford run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FG
23 plays · 72 yds · 9:0795% → 99%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
4.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 17 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
4.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-1
3.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 47Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
3.6%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
3.3%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (Demeco Roland) to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
3.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the USM 40Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
3.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+9
3.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 9 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+7
3.0%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the USM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
2.4%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
1.7%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
1.7%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USM 15Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+4
1.3%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the USM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
1.1%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the USM 11Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
1.1%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the USM 6Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+3
0.7%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USM 3Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
0.7%
Clune Van Andel 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Ethan Crawford run for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
0.3%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+28
0.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Davis Dalton for 28 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
0.3%
Ethan Crawford sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 38 Ethan Crawford fumbled, recovered by ARST Marvin Ham , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:54
Jalen Washington 4 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs Kick)
+23.9
TD · Q2 7:24
Ethan Crawford 5 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs Kick)
+17.8
TD · Q2 4:48
Corey Rucker 13 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com