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ARST

Arkansas State 9 at Texas State 41

TXST
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—TXST 100.0%Mason Shipley 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 9 - HOME 41 · Q4 3:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:42 · Mason Shipley 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense+35.8Score differential+27.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+19.4Garbage-time factor+13.7Blowout margin+12.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:54: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 53 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +0.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:12: Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +6.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:15: Clune Van Andel 25 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +2.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:53: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 25 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +5.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:08: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 30 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:13ARST 4th & 8 at TXST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:58TXST 4th & 1 at ARST 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−0.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:19ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:10ARST 4th & 1 at TXST 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:10ARST 4th & 2 at TXST 22, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.6%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:37TXST 4th & 9 at ARST 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:37ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:37ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:53TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 41, up 11
    Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:15ARST 4th & 2 at TXST 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−<0.1
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:20ARST 4th & 16 at TXST 36, down 22
    Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:08ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 41, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:42TXST 4th & 3 at ARST 12, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:11ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 45, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:54TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:12TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:53TXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:08TXST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:56TXST Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3622% → 22%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
78.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 49 yds to the TXST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
78.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for no gain to the TXST 26Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
77.9%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
77.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
77.7%
Clune Van Andel 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0678% → 78%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
77.5%
Texas State Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
77.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
77.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 3 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
77.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 8 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
77.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 53 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2522% → 22%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
77.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
77.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Treylin Payne return for no gain to the ARST 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1878% → 78%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
77.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 12 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
77.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 12 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
77.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
77.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARST 18Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
77.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+4
77.5%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the ARST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3323% → 23%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
77.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 16 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
77.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+5
77.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
76.7%
Ryan Heicher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 5:0077% → 83%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
77.0%
(06:20) Shotgun Burgess Jr.,Torrance rush left for 2 yards gain to the TXST16 (Thomas,Trevian) PENALTY ASU Offside 5 yards from TXST14 to TXST19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 5
OWN 19
+3
77.1%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 3 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+10
77.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 10 yds to the TXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
77.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+13
77.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 13 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
77.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 9 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+10
77.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 10 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
77.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 11 yds to the ARST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
77.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the ARST 20Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
77.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+15
76.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 15 yds to the ARST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:5221% → 20%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
79.1%
(01:12) Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass complete short left to Stevenson Jr.,Manny caught at ASU25, for 7 yards to the ASU32 (Spears,Tory) PENALTY TXST Holding (Moore,Trez) 10 yards from ASU25 to ASU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
78.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 33Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
79.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+21
79.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 21 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
78.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-10
78.0%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Mannie Nunnery for a loss of 10 yards to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+14
79.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 14 yds to the TXST 37Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+7
79.7%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
78.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 5 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
78.0%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the TXST 24Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+2
80.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
80.2%
Clune Van Andel 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:2583% → 84%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 1 yd to the TXST 26Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
82.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+23
82.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 23 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
84.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 15 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
84.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
84.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
84.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
84.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-10
84.5%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass complete short middle to Sparks,Beau caught at ASU14, for 0 yards to the ASU23 PENALTY TXST Holding (Lockette,Tellek) 10 yards from ASU23 to ASU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+11
84.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 11 yds to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
84.2%
Mason Shipley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:5618% → 16%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
82.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
82.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 8 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
82.3%
Devin Spencer run for 5 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
83.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
84.0%
Ryan Heicher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 14Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
84.0%
Ryan Heicher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:3985% → 87%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
85.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 20Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+5
85.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 5 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+10
85.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 10 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
86.6%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
86.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
86.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 5 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
87.2%
Lars Rau punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG
17 plays · 73 yds · 1:3215% → 18%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
84.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 22 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
84.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 7 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+10
83.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 10 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
82.7%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Steven Parker for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 47Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+7
85.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 7 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
84.8%
(00:59) Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass incomplete deep right to Rucker,Corey thrown to TXST10 PENALTY TXST Pass Interference offsetting ASU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+10
84.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
83.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 9 yds to the TXST 21Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+6
83.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 6 yds to the TXST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-8
83.4%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jordan Polk for a loss of 8 yards to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 18
OPP 23
+11
84.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 11 yds to the TXST 12Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+5
84.1%
PENALTY TXST Offside (Parker,Steven) 5 yards from TXST12 to TXST07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
84.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+25
82.2%
Clune Van Andel 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
83.9%
J. McCloud takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5882% → 87%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+45
81.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 45 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
87.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 25 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FUMBLE
16 plays · 66 yds · 4:0614% → 16%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.5%
Malik Hornsby run for 8 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
85.3%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 34Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
85.9%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
85.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 20 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
85.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 10 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
84.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 22 yds to the TXST 11 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Manny Stevenson Jr.) to the TXST 32Similar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 9
OPP 32
+2
84.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
84.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
84.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the TXST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
83.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the TXST 17Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+8
84.1%
Devin Spencer run for 8 yds to the TXST 43 Devin Spencer fumbled, recovered by ARST Kaleb CulpSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+8
84.1%
Devin Spencer run for 8 yds to the TXST 43 Devin Spencer fumbled, recovered by ARST Kaleb CulpSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:2391% → 97%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
91.1%
Texas State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 7
OWN 46
+7
91.7%
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass complete short right to Dawn, Jr.,Chris caught at TXST48, for 7 yards to the ASU47 (Thomas,Trevian) PENALTY ASU Offside offsetting TXST Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 7
OWN 46
+24
91.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 24 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 30 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
18 plays · 52 yds · 3:384% → 3%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
95.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 17 yds to the ARST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
96.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
96.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-5
96.2%
PENALTY ASU False Start 5 yards from ASU36 to ASU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+16
96.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 16 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
96.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the TXST 49Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+8
97.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 8 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
97.0%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the TXST 40Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
97.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 10 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
96.9%
Malik Hornsby run for 6 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
97.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
97.5%
Ryan Heicher punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 4:1799% → 100%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
98.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the TXST 16Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+7
98.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the TXST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
98.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
98.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
99.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 22 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+16
99.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 16 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
99.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 13 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.5%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 10 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 8 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.8%
(14:54) Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass complete short left to Cross,Ja'Quez caught at ASU28, for 5 yards to the ASU30 (Payne,Treylin) PENALTY ASU Holding (Smith,Noah) 10 yards from ASU25 to ASU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 6 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 15 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 41Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Ryan Heicher punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19FG
18 plays · 72 yds · 9:26100% → 100%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
99.9%
(13:08) PENALTY TXST Illegal Snap (Todd,Chayse) 5 yards from TXST16 to TXST11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TXST 16Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+14
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 14 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+7
99.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+7
99.9%
Deion Hankins run for 7 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
Deion Hankins run for 7 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+13
99.9%
Deion Hankins run for 13 yds to the ARST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the ARST 17Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-5
99.9%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Hankins,Deion rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ASU10 (Jeffery,Cam) PENALTY TXST Illegal Formation 5 yards from ASU17 to ASU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
Deion Hankins run for 5 yds to the ARST 17Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
Drew Donley run for 5 yds to the ARST 12Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
100.0%
Mason Shipley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 7 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 6 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
100.0%
Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+9
100.0%
Mike Sharpe II run for 9 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for 2 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Ryan Heicher punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-3
100.0%
Texas State Penalty, (-3 Yards) to the TXST 3Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
100.0%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 3 yds to the TXST 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:12
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q3 8:08
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 30 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q3 13:53
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 25 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com