Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 24 at Arkansas State 28

ARST
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:25 · Angus Davies punt for 56 yds, downed at the ARST 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTimeout advantage
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior+5.7Home team on offense+2.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score differential+0.8Timeout advantage−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:57: Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 39 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:40: Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +16.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. PUNT · Q3 10:53: Angus Davies punt for 58 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 77 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +15.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:42: Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +17.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:30: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +21.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:29ARST 4th & 3 at TLSA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48TLSA 4th & 6 at ARST 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:53ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:43TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 24, up 3
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:49ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:51TLSA 4th & 1 at ARST 45, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:53TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:25TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:36ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−3.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:18TLSA 4th & 11 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:25ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 32, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:05TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−3.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:50ARST 4th & 8 at TLSA 34, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:45TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 36, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:45ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:57TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:35TLSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:40ARST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:42TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:30ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3070% → 69%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
69.6%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
69.5%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
69.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 18 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
69.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-2
69.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 42Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+7
69.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 7 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 3
OPP 35
-1
69.4%
Dayne Hodge run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3831% → 33%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
69.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
68.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 14 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
68.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+18
68.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Luke McGary for 18 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
68.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
67.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 2 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+4
67.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 4 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
67.4%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 16Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+5
67.3%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARST 11Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
67.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
67.4%
Seth Morgan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 1:5567% → 71%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
67.3%
Cedric Hawkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 10Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+21
66.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 21 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
66.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 7 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+22
67.4%
Zak Wallace run for 22 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
67.6%
Tulsa Penalty, Offsides (Myles Jackson) to the TLSA 35Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+35
70.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 35 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2931% → 32%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
69.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 12 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
68.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 11 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
68.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 15 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
68.1%
Bill Jackson run for 37 yds Bill Jackson fumbled, recovered by ARSTSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5INT
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5669% → 68%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
68.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
68.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
69.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
69.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 42 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor J. Raynor return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+3
68.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 3 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+32
68.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 32 yds to the TLSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
69.7%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-10
69.6%
(14:27) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass up the middle complete for 17 yards to HORNSBY, Malik caught at the TLS24 and advanced to the TLS7, out of bounds, clock 14:23. PENALTY ASU Holding on STEVENSON JR., Manny enforced 10 yards from the TLS24 to the TLS34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 21
OPP 34
0
68.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 21
OPP 34
0
68.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Dayne Hodge return for no gain to the TLSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:5631% → 40%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
69.5%
Lloyd Avant run for 6 yds to the TLSA 16Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+5
69.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 5 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
69.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-5
69.8%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TLSA 20Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+14
70.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 14 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
68.8%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the TLSA 36Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
68.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
68.2%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
67.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
67.0%
Kirk Francis run for 10 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
59.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 39 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:0260% → 57%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
60.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+11
59.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 11 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
59.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 24Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
58.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
60.1%
(07:22) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass short to the right complete for 10 yards to STEVENSON JR., Manny caught at the ASU45 and advanced to the ASU50 (CARLISLE, Tyree), clock 07:16. PENALTY ASU Holding on ZOLLICOFFER, Elijah enforced 10 yards from the ASU40 to the ASU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+6
57.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 6 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+6
57.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
56.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0241% → 39%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
59.1%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the TLSA 17Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
59.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
59.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+45
60.7%
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the ARST 31 , returns for no gain to the ARST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:0045% → 49%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
55.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 11 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
54.7%
Lloyd Avant run for 7 yds to the ARST 13Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+8
54.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 8 yds to the ARST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.2%
Lloyd Avant run for no gain to the ARST 5Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.0%
Cardell Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:4043% → 50%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
43.4%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Tyree Carlisle for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
50.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-5
49.9%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (EJ Ndoma-Ogar) to the ARST 17Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 16
OWN 17
0
49.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
49.6%
Ryan Heicher punt for 49 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for no gain to the TLSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4849% → 50%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
51.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 47Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
50.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Connor Vaughn for 8 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
49.0%
Cardell Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
50.1%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds, downed at the ARST 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
47.0%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1856% → 57%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
44.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
43.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+7
44.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 7 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
42.1%
Arkansas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryan Whitehead) to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
42.8%
(13:36) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey thrown to the TLS33, clock 13:32. PENALTY TLS Pass Interference on PARKER, Keuan enforced 15 yards to the TLS48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:5145% → 61%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
44.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+28
44.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 28 yds to the TLSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
60.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4046% → 28%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.2%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 24Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
55.0%
Lloyd Avant run for no gain to the TLSA 24Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
55.9%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Grayson Tempest) to the TLSA 19Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
56.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+77
71.7%
Angus Davies punt for 58 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 77 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:0932% → 55%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+45
67.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 45 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
62.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 14 yds to the ARST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
62.9%
(09:48) FRANCIS, Kirk pass up the middle incomplete intended for BENJAMIN, Kamdyn thrown to the ASU0, clock 09:46. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on REED III, James enforced 4 yards to the ASU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:0550% → 74%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
49.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
49.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+7
47.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
49.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 3 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+3
49.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+12
50.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
50
+1
52.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the TLSA 49Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
52.2%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
51.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 7 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
52.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the TLSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
53.3%
Tulsa Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyree Carlisle) to the TLSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
53.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0532% → 31%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.2%
Lloyd Avant run for 8 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
65.2%
Lloyd Avant run for no gain to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
67.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
68.6%
Angus Davies punt for 56 yds, downed at the ARST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3971% → 69%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
71.3%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 12Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
70.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
69.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
68.7%
Ryan Heicher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the ARST 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1037% → 31%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
63.1%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 11
50
0
65.2%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 11
50
0
66.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 11
50
0
69.2%
Angus Davies punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4471% → 68%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
71.4%
Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+2
71.5%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
71.4%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 24Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
69.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+3
69.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
67.7%
Ryan Heicher punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1332% → 29%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.2%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
68.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
70.1%
Lloyd Avant run for 12 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
66.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for a loss of 7 yards to the TLSA 27Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+5
69.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 5 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
70.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
71.0%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the ARST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0774% → 81%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
74.4%
Zak Wallace run for 11 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
74.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 18 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
78.2%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
77.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
80.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-1
83.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 34Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
81.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the TLSA 34Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
80.7%
Clune Van Andel 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5135% → 29%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
65.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 36Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
67.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
68.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
71.2%
Angus Davies punt for 44 yds, downed at the ARST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25END OF GAME
13 plays · 14 yds · 4:3883% → 96%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
83.1%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
84.4%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
84.0%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
89.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
90.0%
Tulsa Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Gavin Potter) to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
94.1%
[NH] Kneel down by ASU at ASU40 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 13
OWN 40
-3
93.4%
[NH] Kneel down by ASU at ASU37 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 37
-3
95.5%
[NH] Kneel down by ASU at ASU34 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:30
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+21.4
TD · Q3 9:42
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q3 12:40
Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com