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WAKE

Wake Forest 34 at NC State 30

NCSU
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.1NCSU 57.5%Kanoah Vinesett 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q1 3:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:09 · Kanoah Vinesett 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+9.8Home team on offense−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.0Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:28: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 23 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +12.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:02: Kendrick Raphael run for 20 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:08: CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 22 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:43: Demond Claiborne run for 32 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +28.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:01: Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +58.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:50WAKE 4th & 5 at NCSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:09NCSU 4th & 11 at WAKE 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:17WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:11WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:58NCSU 4th & 8 at WAKE 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:34NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:02NCSU 4th & 7 at WAKE 32, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:31NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:28WAKE 4th & 13 at NCSU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−10.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:59WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−4.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:24WAKE 4th & 9 at NCSU 48, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:07NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−5.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:03WAKE 4th & 5 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.8%−5.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:40WAKE 4th & 3 at NCSU 26, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.9 ptsWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%−5.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−19.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:51WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:30NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:28WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:02NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:08NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:43WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:01WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:0238% → 38%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 5 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
62.2%
Demond Claiborne run for 7 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
62.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 20 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
62.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+18
61.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 18 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
61.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
61.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 5 yds to the NCSU 13Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
61.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
61.8%
Matthew Dennis 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:1662% → 62%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Noah Rogers for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
61.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 5 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, Targeting (Davaughn Patterson) to the WAKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+30
62.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for 30 yds to the WAKE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
62.3%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the WAKE 19Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
62.3%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+9
62.0%
Grayson McCall run for 9 yds to the WAKE 10, Grayson McCall fumbled, recovered by WAKE Evan Slocum, returned 88 yards to the NCSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2739% → 41%
Q1 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.9%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 1 yd to the NCSU 3Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 5:2959% → 58%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for no gain to the NCSU 25Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 13 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
58.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 10 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
58.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 7 yds to the WAKE 45Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
58.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
58.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
58.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 24 yds to the WAKE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
58.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 18Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
57.1%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
56.4%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+35
57.5%
Kanoah Vinesett 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:4243% → 43%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
56.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 13 yds to the WAKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
55.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
56.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
56.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:3557% → 63%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
57.3%
Kevin Concepcion run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 5
50
+9
57.5%
Jordan Waters run for 9 yds to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
57.4%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
57.8%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
57.1%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the WAKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
57.8%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
57.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 11 yds to the WAKE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
57.4%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the WAKE 16Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
57.3%
Wake Forest Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (7 Yards) to the WAKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
57.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a loss of 5 yards to the WAKE 12Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
56.9%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the WAKE 9Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
63.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 9 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1340% → 39%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
60.1%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 31Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
60.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+3
61.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 51 yds , Kevin Concepcion returns for 3 yds to the NCSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 6:5762% → 65%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
61.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 22 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
63.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 8 yds to the WAKE 49Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
63.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
63.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 9 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
64.2%
Kevin Concepcion run for no gain to the WAKE 34Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
63.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the WAKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
64.3%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
64.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+8
63.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the WAKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-9
64.4%
CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the WAKE 29Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 19
OPP 29
0
63.3%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 19
OPP 29
+11
61.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 11 yds to the WAKE 18Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
64.7%
Kanoah Vinesett 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:2336% → 52%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 15 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
62.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
62.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 11 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
60.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 11 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
59.3%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete deep right to Alexander,Deuce thrown to NCSU10 PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (Carter,Ja'Had) 15 yards from NCSU38 to NCSU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
58.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
48.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 23 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 1:1553% → 62%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
54.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 7 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
54.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 14 yds to the WAKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.4%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
56.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 9 yds to the WAKE 38Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
56.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
54.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 11 yds to the WAKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
56.2%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the WAKE 20Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+37
61.9%
Kanoah Vinesett 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
55.4%
H. Bachmeier takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1457% → 55%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
59.2%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
56.7%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
54.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WAKE 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:2948% → 48%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
52.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the WAKE 44Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-9
52.5%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Sean Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the WAKE 35 Hank Bachmeier fumbled, recovered by WAKE Sean Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4962% → 57%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.5%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
61.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
59.8%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
57.4%
Kanoah Vinesett 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2346% → 48%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
54.0%
Demond Claiborne run for 11 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
52.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5657% → 55%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
57.2%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
59.3%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-10
57.8%
(10:47) Shotgun Bailey,CJ rush right for 8 yards gain to the NCSU49 (Stevenson,Zamari), out of bounds PENALTY NCSU Holding (McKay,Timothy) 10 yards from NCSU41 to NCSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+11
54.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 11 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
55.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:5346% → 54%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
54.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 32 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
50.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
50.6%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short left to Morin,Taylor thrown to NCSU35 PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (Marshall,Devon) 7 yards from NCSU41 to NCSU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
48.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 7 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+7
47.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Harry Lodge for 7 yds to the NCSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
47.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
47.5%
PENALTY WFU False Start (Gulbin,Matt) 5 yards from NCSU20 to NCSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+2
48.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 2 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
50.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+41
46.3%
Matthew Dennis 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1848% → 71%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
47.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 14 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
49.5%
CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
52.1%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
50.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
50.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 11 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jasheen Davis) to the WAKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
51.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the WAKE 20Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
70.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 20 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5934% → 31%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
66.2%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Devon Betty for a loss of 3 yards to the WAKE 22Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
68.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
68.9%
Ivan Mora punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:3568% → 86%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
67.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 6 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
69.1%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
69.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 10 yds to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
70.3%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the WAKE 40Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
73.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 10 yds to the WAKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
74.8%
Kevin Concepcion run for 8 yds to the WAKE 22Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+22
86.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 22 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1816% → 41%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 27Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
84.1%
Demond Claiborne run for 6 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
83.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the WAKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
83.1%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Tamarcus Cooley for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 36 Hank Bachmeier fumbled, recovered by WAKE Nick Sharpe , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+15
87.3%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short right to Claiborne,Demond thrown to WFU40 QB hurried by Betty,Devon PENALTY NCSU Roughing The Passer (Betty,Devon) 15 yards from WFU36 to NCSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
83.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
84.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
86.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+16
87.5%
Hank Bachmeier run for 16 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
59.0%
Demond Claiborne run for 32 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3072% → 69%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.9%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 24Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
71.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 7 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
71.3%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
69.7%
(07:25) Noonkester,Caden punt 54 yards to the WFU15 fair catch by Morin,Taylor at WFU15 PENALTY NCSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from NCSU31 to NCSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+15
68.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 15 yds to the WAKE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23TD
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:5936% → 95%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
64.0%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the WAKE 34Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
67.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 8 yds to the WAKE 42Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
63.0%
Deuce Alexander run for 3 yds to the WAKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
63.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 47Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
62.5%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the WAKE 45Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
68.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 5
50
+17
70.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 17 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
65.5%
Tate Carney run for 5 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
63.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
64.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+6
68.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 6 yds to the NCSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
63.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 17 yds to the NCSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.1%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.7%
CJ Bailey pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4795% → 96%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
4.9%
H. Bachmeier takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-1
3.9%
H. Bachmeier takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:01
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
-58.5
TD · Q4 8:43
Demond Claiborne run for 32 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
-28.5
TD · Q3 3:02
Kendrick Raphael run for 20 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com