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NCSU

NC State 35 at North Carolina 30

UNC
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:43 · Caden Noonkester punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior+7.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:19: Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Chris Culliver for 50 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +24.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:15: CJ Bailey pass complete to Dante Daniels for 14 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +23.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:01: CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 13 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett PAT BLOCKED) — NCSU win probability +29.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:51: Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +48.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:25: Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NCSU win probability +49.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:24NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:30UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43NCSU 4th & 27 at UNC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:15UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:47UNC 4th & 3 at NCSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−1.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:23NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 39, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41UNC 4th & 7 at NCSU 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:07UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:01NCSU 4th & 6 at UNC 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−8.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:46NCSU 4th & 7 at UNC 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−9.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:46UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.6%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:29UNC 4th & 5 at NCSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−17.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:31UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 32, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:37NCSU 4th & 10 at UNC 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−3.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−21.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 2:50NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:49UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:50UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:19UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:15NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:01NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    61.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:51UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−6.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:25NCSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    83.9%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3641% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.7%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
58.7%
CJ Bailey run for 4 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
58.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
58.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5459% → 59%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.9%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
58.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
58.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+2
58.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 44 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 2 yds to the NCSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:4741% → 41%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.8%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
58.7%
CJ Bailey run for 14 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
58.6%
CJ Bailey sacked by Desmond Evans for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 35Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+7
58.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 7 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+27
58.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 12 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Charleston French) to the UNC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
58.4%
Kevin Concepcion sacked by Amare Campbell for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 17
OPP 38
0
58.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 17
OPP 38
+10
58.7%
Shotgun Bailey,CJ rush right for 9 yards gain to the UNC29 (Huzzie,Alijah), out of bounds PENALTY NCSU Holding (Waters,Jordan) 10 yards from UNC38 to UNC48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 27
OPP 48
0
58.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for no gain to the UNC 48Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 27
OPP 48
0
58.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4059% → 58%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-15
58.7%
North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UNC 17Similar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 7
OWN 17
+2
58.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the UNC 19Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
58.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
58.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
58.1%
Tom Maginness punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:1842% → 43%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
58.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
50
+3
57.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+7
57.7%
CJ Bailey run for 7 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
57.7%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
57.4%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:4559% → 58%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.8%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 20Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
58.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-9
58.1%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 9 yards to the UNC 11 Jacolby Criswell fumbled, recovered by NCSU Sean Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:1043% → 48%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
56.9%
Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete short left to Joly,Justin thrown to UNC00 PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Cost,Kaleb) 9 yards from UNC11 to UNC02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3154% → 53%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
54.4%
Caleb Hood pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-10
54.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hampton,Omarion rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC41 (Brown,Sean) PENALTY UNC Holding (Blaske,Austin) 10 yards from UNC34 to UNC24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+11
54.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 11 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
54.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
52.5%
Tom Maginness punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:4547% → 48%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
52.8%
CJ Bailey run for 11 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
51.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 27
0
52.5%
Kevin Concepcion run for no gain to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+6
52.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
52.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:4152% → 59%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
52.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
52.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
53.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
53.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 19 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Howard Sampson) to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
53.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 11 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
54.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 5 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-5
54.7%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Blaske,Austin) 5 yards from NCSU33 to NCSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
53.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Christian Hamilton for 4 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
53.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
50.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Christian HamiltonSimilar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 3
OPP 31
-15
50.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass incomplete deep right to Hamilton,Christian thrown to NCSU11 PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (Marshall,Devon) 15 yards from NCSU31 to NCSU16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
53.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
53.1%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 17Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+17
58.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2645% → 45%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
54.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 9 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
54.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
53.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
54.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
55.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 7 , Alijah Huzzie returns for no gain to the UNC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12MISSED FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 4:4256% → 57%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-5
55.6%
PENALTY NCSU Delay Of Game (Vann,Davin) 5 yards from UNC07 to UNC12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 5
OWN 12
-1
56.0%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 11Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+8
55.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the UNC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
56.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+10
56.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 10 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
56.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
57.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+19
55.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 19 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
59.0%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+13
58.4%
Jacolby Criswell run for 13 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
59.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NCSU 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
59.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 2 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
58.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
56.5%
Noah Burnette 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4147% → 48%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
52.8%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
52.2%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5355% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
55.2%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
55.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
53.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
53.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 4:0649% → 52%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
50.9%
CJ Bailey run for 9 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
50.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 8 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
50.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+6
48.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the UNC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
48.9%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
48.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-3
50.1%
CJ Bailey sacked by Alijah Huzzie for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
47.8%
Kanoah Vinesett 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
64.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 75 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:5837% → 46%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
63.0%
Jordan Waters run for 13 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
61.9%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+37
62.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 37 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
57.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+10
57.8%
Shotgun Raphael,Kendrick rush left for 1 yard loss to the UNC19 (Campbell,Amare), out of bounds PENALTY NCSU Holding (Daniels,Dante) 10 yards from UNC18 to UNC28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+5
58.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 5 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
59.7%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
53.9%
Kanoah Vinesett 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2759% → 81%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
58.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
56.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Paul Billups II for 7 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
57.3%
Jacolby Criswell run for 5 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
60.3%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Sampson,Howard) 5 yards from UNC39 to UNC34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+2
58.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 2 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 17
OWN 32
0
58.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+18
56.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
50
+50
81.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Chris Culliver for 50 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:5926% → 53%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
73.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 22 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
70.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 18 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
68.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+7
70.4%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
70.4%
Kevin Concepcion run for 2 yds to the UNC 14Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
47.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dante Daniels for 14 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3961% → 71%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+46
61.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Chris Culliver for 46 yds to the NCSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
64.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCSU 10Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
64.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the NCSU 8Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
62.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
70.9%
Noah Burnette 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:2033% → 68%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
66.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 21 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
62.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 21 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
60.1%
Kevin Concepcion run for 5 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+5
60.0%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
61.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the UNC 17Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
61.6%
CJ Bailey run for 4 yds to the UNC 13Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
31.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 13 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2545% → 40%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
44.6%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
44.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 4 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
43.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
40.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:5467% → 87%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
33.4%
North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+43
31.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 43 yds to the UNC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
27.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 12 yds to the UNC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
27.5%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the UNC 3Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
27.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 5Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
29.3%
CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 10Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
14.0%
Kanoah Vinesett 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
13.3%
PENALTY NCSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NCSU35 to NCSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4627% → 76%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
26.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+19
30.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 19 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
75.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:2635% → 95%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
63.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 7 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+7
58.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 7 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
58.0%
Shotgun Bailey,CJ rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC45 (Lane,Antavious) PENALTY NCSU Holding (Peak,Jacarrius) 10 yards from NCSU49 to NCSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+44
64.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 44 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
52.9%
Shotgun Raphael,Kendrick rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC15 (Lane,Antavious; Ritzie,Jahvaree) PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UNC17 to UNC12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+10
52.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 10 yds to the UNC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:2113% → 11%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
13.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 15 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
13.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Omarion HamptonSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
13.4%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Jackson Vick for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+9
11.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 9 yds Austin Blaske fumbled, recovered by NCSU Kelvon McBrideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:25
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-49.9
TD · Q4 1:51
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+48.4
TD · Q4 8:01
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 13 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett PAT BLOCKED)
-29.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com