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DUKE

Duke 29 at NC State 19

NCSU
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:24 · CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense−35.5Pregame prior+0.2Garbage-time factor−15.2Score differential−11.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:01: Kanoah Vinesett 37 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:57: Kanoah Vinesett 25 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:37: Maalik Murphy run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +18.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:58: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 9 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:01: CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 16 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:57DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:39DUKE 4th & 10 at NCSU 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:58NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:15NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, down 12
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:45DUKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 26, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:27NCSU 4th & 10 at DUKE 12, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:13DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:53NCSU 4th & 10 at DUKE 10, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:13DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:49NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:57NCSU 4th & 2 at DUKE 7, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−12.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:05NCSU 4th & 8 at DUKE 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−12.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:00DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−3.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:01NCSU 4th & 8 at DUKE 16, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−6.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:57DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:56NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:06DUKE 4th & 7 at NCSU 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−1.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:24NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 31, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:45DUKE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:37DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:58DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:01NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5841% → 41%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
59.0%
Maalik Murphy run for no gain to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
59.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
59.0%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 63 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2SF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4159% → 59%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
59.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 2Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 2
-2
58.9%
CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0141% → 41%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
58.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 15 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
58.4%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 42Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
58.3%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+3
58.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
58.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:4058% → 58%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
58.3%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
58.4%
CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the NCSU 32 CJ Bailey fumbled, recovered by DUKE Cameron BergeronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2642% → 43%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
57.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
57.6%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+1
57.7%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the NCSU 32Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+50
57.4%
Todd Pelino 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3757% → 56%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
57.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
56.6%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
56.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0943% → 49%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+31
56.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 31 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
51.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 45 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1953% → 52%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
52.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 8 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
52.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Jordan WatersSimilar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
52.5%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the NCSU 33Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
51.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2650% → 50%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
50.2%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 34Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
49.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-8
50.2%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Travali Price for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 17
OWN 26
+10
50.3%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 50 yds , Kevin Concepcion returns for 10 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:1250% → 50%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
50.1%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+21
49.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 21 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
50.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 4 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
50.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
50.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the DUKE 39Similar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
49.9%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
49.4%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-2
48.4%
CJ Bailey sacked by Jaylen Stinson for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 12Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
49.5%
Kanoah Vinesett 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0750% → 50%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.3%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
50.3%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 18Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+9
50.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 9 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
50.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Concepcion at the NCSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:1548% → 51%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
48.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
47.7%
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+15
48.8%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Defensive Holding (Eli Pancol) to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
49.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 26 yds to the DUKE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
49.2%
(06:47) Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete short middle to Joly,Justin thrown to DUKE00 PENALTY DUKE Holding (Howard,Alex) 9 yards from DUKE18 to DUKE09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
49.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 10Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
48.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q2 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.5%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
50.7%
Kanoah Vinesett 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2652% → 53%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
47.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 11 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
46.8%
Que'Sean Brown run for 1 yd to the DUKE 31Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
46.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 4 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
46.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+18
47.5%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 7 , Kevin Concepcion returns for 18 yds to the NCSU 47 NC State Penalty, (8 Yards) to the NCSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1849% → 47%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
49.1%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 3
OWN 14
-5
48.9%
(02:32) PENALTY NCSU False Start (Peak,Jacarrius) 5 yards from NCSU14 to NCSU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
48.3%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the NCSU 9Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
47.1%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
46.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Sahmir Hagans at the DUKE 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:3756% → 60%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
43.7%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
42.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+20
42.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 20 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
41.6%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
41.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
39.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 5 yds Eli Pancol fumbled, recovered by DUKE Tamarcus CooleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FG
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
58.3%
Kanoah Vinesett 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.7%
M. Murphy takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 5:5853% → 60%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
53.2%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
53.0%
(14:54) Shotgun Concepcion,KC rush middle for 18 yards gain to the DUKE47 (Robinson,Kimari; Moore,Terry) PENALTY NCSU Holding (Peak,Jacarrius) 10 yards from NCSU35 to NCSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
54.8%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
55.5%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
54.1%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
50
+5
54.9%
(12:18) Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete deep left to Rogers,Noah thrown to DUKE06 PENALTY DUKE Offside (Charles,Kendy) 5 yards from DUKE50 to DUKE45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+3
54.0%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the DUKE 42Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
54.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
53.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Hollywood SmothersSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
53.6%
Duke Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
55.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
55.0%
CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the DUKE 7Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
53.1%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 7Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+25
59.9%
Kanoah Vinesett 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1546% → 71%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 24Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
55.0%
NC State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
50.9%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Thomas,Star rush middle for 1 yard loss to the DUKE45 (Fitzgerald,Bishop; Bonner,Kamal) PENALTY DUKE Holding (Parker II,Brian) 10 yards from DUKE46 to DUKE36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
54.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+20
54.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 20 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
49.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NCSU 43Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+22
49.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 22 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
47.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 6 yds to the NCSU 15Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+5
47.3%
Grayson Loftis run for 5 yds to the NCSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
46.7%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the NCSU 3Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.7%
Maalik Murphy run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:2237% → 37%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
37.0%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
36.1%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
34.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 15 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
39.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 20 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
42.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 15 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Rivers) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
42.2%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
42.0%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 18Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
39.8%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Hollywood SmothersSimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
37.2%
Kanoah Vinesett 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5969% → 68%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
31.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+3
32.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
32.0%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0532% → 32%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
32.3%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
31.5%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:3378% → 90%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
22.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
21.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
9.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 9 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4915% → 30%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
15.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 20 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
16.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for 15 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
16.4%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
16.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 12 yds to the DUKE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
16.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 5 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+5
16.4%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the DUKE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
14.1%
Kevin Concepcion run for 4 yds to the DUKE 14Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
13.8%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+2
12.8%
CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the DUKE 16Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+16
29.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 16 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5979% → 81%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 24Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
21.2%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
19.9%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+9
19.2%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 49 yds , Kevin Concepcion returns for 9 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26PUNT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:5624% → 20%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
24.3%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
23.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 25Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:4284% → 93%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
15.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 17 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
12.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 3 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
11.1%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+10
11.1%
(03:53) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete deep left to Pancol,Eli thrown to NCSU15 PENALTY NCSU Holding (White,Aydan) 10 yards from NCSU45 to NCSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
10.0%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the NCSU 35Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
8.6%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
8.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
6.6%
Todd Pelino 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:365% → 4%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
4.8%
CJ Bailey run for 7 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
4.9%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah RogersSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-6
4.8%
PENALTY NCSU False Start 6 yards from NCSU37 to NCSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
3.9%
NC State Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
3.8%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 10 yds · 1:1796% → 96%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
4.4%
M. Murphy takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+15
3.7%
NC State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:37
Maalik Murphy run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-18
TD · Q4 9:01
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 16 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+16.6
TD · Q4 13:58
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 9 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com