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NCSU

NC State 24 at California 23

CAL
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:44 · Caden Noonkester punt for 25 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+13.3Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:20: Kevin Concepcion run for 2 yds for a TD California Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:24: Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK) — CAL win probability +9.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:33: CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +18.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:33: Timeout California, clock 11:33 — CAL win probability +8.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:32: CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 41 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +34.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 11 of 12NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:24NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56CAL 4th & 5 at NCSU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    75.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:23NCSU 4th & 9 at CAL 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:42CAL 4th & 9 at NCSU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:38NCSU 4th & 25 at CAL 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:34NCSU 4th & 8 at CAL 32, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:12CAL 4th & 12 at NCSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07CAL 4th & 1 at NCSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:07CAL 4th & 1 at NCSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−2.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:05CAL 4th & 3 at NCSU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−7.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:10CAL 4th & 6 at NCSU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−7.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:59NCSU 4th & 7 at CAL 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:04CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:36NCSU 4th & 17 at NCSU 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−4.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:21CAL 4th & 5 at NCSU 42, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−2.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:33NCSU 4th & 1 at CAL 1, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−8.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:43CAL 4th & 21 at CAL 43, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−5.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:34CAL 4th & 4 at NCSU 10, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−18.7
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−35.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:09NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.8 ptsPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−6.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:09NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.8 ptsPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−6.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:32CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.6%−8.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:47CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:20NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:24CAL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:33NCSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:32NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−2.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5675% → 75%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 7 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
75.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 4 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+49
75.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for 49 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:1425% → 24%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
75.3%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the NCSU 29Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
75.4%
(12:31) Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass complete short left to Concepcion,KC caught at NCS40, for 25 yards to the CAL46, out of bounds at CAL46 PENALTY NCS Holding (Belton,Anthony) 10 yards from NCS29 to NCS19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+6
75.5%
CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:1175% → 76%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
75.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 5 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+10
75.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 10 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
75.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the CAL 32Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+7
75.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Josiah Martin for 7 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+13
75.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 13 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
76.1%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Reimer,Rush) 5 yards from NCS48 to CAL47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+15
75.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Josiah Martin for 15 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.1%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for no gain to the NCSU 38Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
76.2%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+3
76.1%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-2
76.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Josiah Martin for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 6:1925% → 26%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
75.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 3 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
75.3%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the NCSU 39Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
75.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 10 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
74.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 7 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
74.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 4 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
74.7%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+27
74.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 27 yds to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
74.3%
California Penalty, Personal Foul (Craig Woodson) to the CAL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.2%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the CAL 3Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
74.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to CJ Bailey for a loss of 6 yards to the CAL 9Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.0%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
73.6%
Kanoah Vinesett 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:1874% → 73%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
73.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 16 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
74.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 15 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
74.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the NCSU 43Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
74.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
74.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
73.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 6:5726% → 26%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
73.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 11Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+18
73.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 18 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
73.2%
CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSU 23Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+12
73.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 12 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+10
73.0%
CJ Bailey run for 10 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
71.9%
CJ Bailey sacked by Cam Sidney for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 42Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+6
72.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 6 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+32
71.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 32 yds to the CAL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
70.1%
(08:15) Shotgun Smothers,Hollywood rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CAL17 (Burrell,Nate; Keanaaina,Aidan) PENALTY NCS Chop Block (Belton,Anthony) 15 yards from CAL20 to CAL35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 25
OPP 35
-5
70.7%
CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 30
OPP 40
0
71.9%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 30
OPP 40
+5
72.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 5 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 25
OPP 35
+53
73.8%
Kanoah Vinesett 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
74.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 12 yds to the CAL 34 Jaivian Thomas fumbled, recovered by NCSU Isaiah CrowellSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
74.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 12 yds to the CAL 34 Jaivian Thomas fumbled, recovered by NCSU Isaiah CrowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:4929% → 42%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
70.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 6 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
70.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the CAL 28Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+4
71.1%
CJ Bailey run for 4 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+31
73.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 31 yds to the CAL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the CAL 2Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.0%
Kevin Concepcion run for 2 yds for a TD California Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9FG
13 plays · 37 yds · 1:5165% → 69%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
65.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 6 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
65.2%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 9 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
65.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 11 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
66.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 13 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
66.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
66.6%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSU 22Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 11
OPP 22
-5
64.6%
PENALTY CAL False Start (McDonald,Will) 5 yards from NCS22 to NCS27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+9
62.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Byron Cardwell Jr. for 9 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 7
OPP 18
-5
63.9%
(01:16) PENALTY CAL False Start (Stoffel,Victor) 5 yards from NCS18 to NCS23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+41
69.4%
Derek Morris 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2035% → 31%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
64.9%
CJ Bailey sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 16Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+6
65.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the NCSU 22Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
66.3%
CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
69.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:3171% → 75%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
71.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 13 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
71.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Byron Cardwell Jr. for 22 yds to the NCSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
72.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 4 yds to the NCSU 13Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
72.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+5
71.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the NCSU 8Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+26
75.2%
Derek Morris 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1329% → 29%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 8 yds Noah Rogers fumbled, recovered by CAL Cam SidneySimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 8 yds Noah Rogers fumbled, recovered by CAL Cam SidneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
15 plays · 27 yds · 5:2875% → 77%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
74.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
74.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 7 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
73.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+4
72.4%
Jamaal Wiley run for 4 yds to the NCSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
74.3%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+1
73.2%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSU 13Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+4
71.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 4 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
74.2%
(10:47) PENALTY CAL False Start (McDonald,Will) 5 yards from NCS09 to NCS14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
74.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the NCSU 11Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
74.7%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the NCSU 6Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
73.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
77.1%
Derek Morris 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:5426% → 27%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 8 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
71.4%
CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 30Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
73.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 8 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
72.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+10
72.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
50
+3
69.8%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
70.0%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
70.6%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
73.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5176% → 74%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 5 yds to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+8
74.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 63 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 8 yds to the NCSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1327% → 24%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 20Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
73.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-7
75.0%
CJ Bailey sacked by Serigne Tounkara for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSU 13Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
75.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0281% → 80%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
81.2%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
81.2%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for no gain to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
81.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
80.0%
California Penalty, Delay Of Game (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+26
80.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4983% → 92%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
82.7%
Jamaal Wiley run for 2 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
82.8%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando sacked for loss of 4 yards to the NCS18 (Vann,Davin) PENALTY NCS Holding (Bonner,Kamal) 7 yards from NCS14 to NCS07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.0%
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2711% → 29%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
88.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+29
88.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 29 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+28
87.5%
Kevin Concepcion pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 28 yds to the CAL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
87.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 12Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
89.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 11 yds to the CAL 1Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4079% → 81%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
79.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 18 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
82.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Josiah Martin for 11 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
83.1%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Travali Price for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 49Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+3
82.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Josiah Martin for 3 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-9
83.0%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 9 yards to the CAL 43 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by CAL Fernando Mendoza , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
80.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:0525% → 64%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.2%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
75.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+23
77.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 23 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
72.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 13 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
69.4%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
70.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+41
35.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 41 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22MISSED FG
19 plays · 65 yds · 4:4942% → 49%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.3%
Mikey Matthews run for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
45.1%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 9 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
46.7%
California Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Fernando Mendoza) to the CAL 29Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+20
40.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 20 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
50.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
50
+12
52.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeffrey Johnson for 12 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
53.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
54.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 7 yds to the NCSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
55.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 11 yds to the NCSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
50.9%
(02:00) Shotgun Thomas,Jaivian rush left for 6 yards loss to the NCS22 (Brown,Sean) PENALTY CAL Holding (Swinney,Bastian) 10 yards from NCS16 to NCS26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 20
OPP 26
0
56.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+6
53.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSU 20Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+10
46.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 10 yds to the NCSU 10Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
49.0%
Derek Morris 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:2064% → 66%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
36.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the NCSU 21Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
36.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
34.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
33.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 3 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
33.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 3 yds to the CAL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2733% → 28%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
32.9%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+12
30.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 12 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
32.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+3
28.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 3 yds to the CAL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
5.0%
C. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:32
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 41 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
-34.2
TD · Q4 11:33
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
-18.5
TD · Q2 3:20
Kevin Concepcion run for 2 yds for a TD California Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com