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Louisiana Tech 20 at NC State 30

NCSU
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.9NCSU 87.9%Kanoah Vinesett 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 6 · Q2 5:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:29 · Kanoah Vinesett 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior+28.3Home team on offense+6.0Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:41: Donerio Davenport run for 5 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +10.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:19: Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 71 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +11.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:03: DK Kaufman 33 Yd Interception Return (Kanoah Vinesett Kick) — NCSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:23: Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:21: CJ Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:17NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:04NCSU 4th & 6 at LT 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:54LT 4th & 4 at LT 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:18NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:56LT 4th & 6 at NCSU 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:29NCSU 4th & 6 at LT 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:32NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13LT 4th & 4 at NCSU 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    34% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:34LT 4th & 8 at LT 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:36LT 4th & 2 at NCSU 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−12.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:32NCSU 4th & 9 at LT 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:33LT 4th & 9 at LT 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:19LT 4th & 1 at NCSU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−2.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:41LT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:19LT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:03NCSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:23NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:21NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:3691% → 90%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
91.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 19 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+4
91.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 4 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+3
90.9%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+6
90.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Noah Rogers for 6 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
90.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:4010% → 10%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
90.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 8 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
90.2%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
90.2%
Jack Turner run for 2 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.0%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the NCSU 43Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+17
89.8%
run for 17 yds to the LT 40 fumbled, recovered by LT Caden FordhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 4:1790% → 89%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
90.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
90.0%
Grayson McCall run for no gain to the LT 38Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+12
89.8%
Grayson McCall run for 12 yds to the LT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
89.8%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the LT 25Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-4
89.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 29Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+7
89.0%
Grayson McCall run for 7 yds to the LT 22Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
89.2%
Kanoah Vinesett 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0011% → 12%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.1%
Jack Turner pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 9 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
88.8%
Jack Turner run for no gain to the LT 34Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.7%
Jack Turner pass complete to John Locke for 2 yds to the LT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Marquis Crosby for 1 yd to the LT 37Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
88.2%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
88.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 5 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
88.2%
Patrick Rea punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3088% → 87%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
88.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
87.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
87.4%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
87.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:5912% → 14%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
87.6%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+5
87.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 5 yds to the LT 21Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+29
87.6%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
50
+2
86.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
86.0%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+2
86.2%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
86.4%
Patrick Rea punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 6:2387% → 88%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.5%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
86.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 7 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.2%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+12
86.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 12 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
86.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
87.1%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+14
86.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for 14 yds to the LT 22Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+1
86.5%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the LT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
86.7%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
86.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the LT 17Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
86.0%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
87.9%
Kanoah Vinesett 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4013% → 25%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
87.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 16 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
86.6%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 2 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
86.5%
Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the LT 44Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+10
86.4%
Jack Turner run for 10 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+41
85.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 41 yds to the NCSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.5%
Donerio Davenport run for 5 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0179% → 78%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
80.2%
CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
78.0%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+6
77.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 6 yds to the LT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
66.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 71 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:1168% → 68%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 12 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.1%
CJ Bailey pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4338% → 41%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
62.9%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
63.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 6 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+57
58.6%
Buck Buchanan 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.7%
Kneel down by NC State at NCSU24 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5238% → 27%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.2%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-33
72.9%
DK Kaufman 33 Yd Interception Return (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1728% → 27%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Eli Finley for no gain to the LT 25Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 2 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
72.7%
Patrick Rea punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 8:0372% → 82%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
71.5%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 25Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+23
70.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 23 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
73.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 8 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
73.1%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the LT 44Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
72.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 5 yds to the LT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
71.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 40Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+9
71.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 9 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+4
70.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
71.0%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+4
69.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 4 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+14
67.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 14 yds to the LT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
69.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 9 yds to the LT 3Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
81.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3722% → 36%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
77.7%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 30 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
73.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for no gain to the NCSU 45Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
74.1%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+12
76.1%
Omiri Wiggins run for 12 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
72.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 30 yds to the NCSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the NCSU 1Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.1%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the NCSU 2Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
72.2%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
64.4%
Buck Buchanan 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:0170% → 77%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.7%
CJ Bailey run for 12 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
71.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 36Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+28
69.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 28 yds to the LT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.0%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
72.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the LT 35Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
71.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
77.3%
Kanoah Vinesett 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5424% → 22%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.0%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.2%
Jack Turner pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 1 yd to the LT 26Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
77.8%
Patrick Rea punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:3580% → 93%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 8
OWN 36
-2
79.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+19
78.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 19 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
81.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 34 yds to the LT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
81.5%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+12
81.5%
Jordan Waters run for 12 yds to the LT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.4%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the LT 1Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:558% → 9%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the LT 26Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
92.3%
Jack Turner run for 4 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
92.1%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 17 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
90.8%
Jack Turner sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 48 Jack Turner fumbled, recovered by LT Jay Wilkerson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
90.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 1 yd to the NCSU 47Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
90.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 7 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
90.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
90.2%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+9
90.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 9 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
91.2%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:1595% → 99%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
95.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the NCSU 30Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
94.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+12
96.1%
CJ Bailey run for 12 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
96.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 14 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
97.0%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the LT 40Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+25
97.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 25 yds to the LT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
98.6%
C. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-1
98.7%
C. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:21
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q3 4:23
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q2 1:19
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 71 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com