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STAN

Stanford 28 at NC State 59

NCSU
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:07 · Justin Lamson pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense+16.0Score differential+6.0Pregame prior+7.7Garbage-time factor+3.9Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:15: Justin Lamson run for 3 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +5.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:15: CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:34: CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 8 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK) — NCSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:22: Ashton Daniels run for 48 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +10.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:04: Kevin Concepcion run for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:28NCSU 4th & 2 at STAN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:15NCSU 4th & 5 at STAN 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:43STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:48STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 33, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:07STAN 4th & 7 at NCSU 47, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:06STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:58STAN 4th & 3 at NCSU 45, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:58STAN 4th & 3 at NCSU 45, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:33NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 38, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:37STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 13, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:29NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:06NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:56STAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:15STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:15NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:34NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:22STAN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:04NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:12NCSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:55NCSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:04NCSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:47STAN Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 5:1870% → 72%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
69.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
69.8%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
69.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the STAN 44Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+5
69.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 5 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+4
69.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the STAN 35Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+12
69.5%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 12 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
69.8%
Kevin Concepcion run for 4 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+17
69.8%
CJ Bailey run for 17 yds to the STAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:2929% → 29%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.8%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the STAN 24Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
70.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 10 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
70.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 5 yds to the STAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
70.8%
Emmett Mosley V run for 1 yd to the STAN 38Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-1
71.0%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 32 Ashton Daniels fumbled, recovered by STAN Sean Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:4372% → 76%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
72.0%
Hollywood Smothers run for 11 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
72.2%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
72.2%
(06:07) Shotgun Smothers,Hollywood rush right for 2 yards gain to the STAN19 (Rose,Matt) PENALTY STAN Illegal Substitution 5 yards from STAN21 to STAN16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+3
72.3%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the STAN 13Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
75.9%
Jordan Waters run for 13 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5025% → 28%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
74.6%
Cole Tabb run for 8 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+6
74.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the STAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
74.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
75.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 11 yds to the STAN 33 Ashton Daniels fumbled, recovered by STAN Ashton DanielsSimilar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 21
OWN 33
+67
72.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 67 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3472% → 72%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
72.0%
PENALTY NCSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NCSU30 to NCSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+40
71.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 40 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
72.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 30 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
73.0%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the STAN 4Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
73.2%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the STAN 1Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.9%
(00:07) Shotgun Waters,Jordan rush middle for 0 yards to the STAN01 (Rose,Matt) PENALTY STAN Offside. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+4
72.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the STAN 5Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
72.3%
Collin Smith 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5427% → 35%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.8%
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+39
72.7%
Cole Tabb run for 39 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
71.3%
Sedrick Irvin run for 3 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+29
71.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 29 yds to the NCSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
70.5%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the NCSU 3Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.3%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5668% → 76%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.8%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
67.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 10 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
69.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 6 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+14
69.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 14 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
69.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+12
70.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 12 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
70.9%
CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the STAN 17Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
70.9%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the STAN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
70.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the STAN 9Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
76.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1825% → 23%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
75.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the STAN 30Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+3
76.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
77.3%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:0475% → 89%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.9%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
75.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 15 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tristan Sinclair) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
77.4%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 44Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
76.8%
CJ Bailey run for no gain to the NCSU 44Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+25
75.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 25 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
79.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 8 yds to the STAN 23Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+10
79.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 10 yds to the STAN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
79.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the STAN 8Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
89.0%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 8 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:2615% → 17%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.4%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
85.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 5 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
85.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
84.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sedrick Irvin for 15 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
83.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 6 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2814% → 23%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
86.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
86.8%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the STAN 33Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+10
87.9%
Justin Lamson run for 10 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
87.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 9 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+48
77.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 48 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.2%
Kevin Concepcion run for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4711% → 10%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.9%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Ashton pass incomplete deep left to Ayomanor,Elic thrown to NCSU50 PENALTY NCSU Roughing The Passer (Bonner,Kamal) 15 yards from STAN25 to STAN40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
88.2%
Justin Lamson run for 5 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
88.3%
Justin Lamson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
50
+1
88.2%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the NCSU 49Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
88.8%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+2
89.1%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
89.6%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:5093% → 96%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
92.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 48Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+52
96.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 52 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15INT
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:544% → 4%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.0%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the STAN 23Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
96.3%
(06:31) Shotgun Lamson,Justin pass incomplete short right to Ayomanor,Elic thrown to STAN30 PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (White,Aydan) 7 yards from STAN23 to STAN30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+60
96.2%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 60 yds to the NCSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
95.8%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the NCSU 12Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
96.4%
Justin Lamson pass intercepted Devon Marshall return for no gain to the NCSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
1 play · 94 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+94
99.5%
Jordan Waters run for 94 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:421% → 0%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Justin Lamson run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.4%
Justin Lamson sacked by Kamal Bonner for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 18Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
99.6%
Justin Lamson run for 7 yds to the STAN 25Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:55100% → 100%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
99.6%
CJ Bailey sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 40Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+10
99.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 10 yds Kevin Concepcion fumbled, recovered by STAN Kc Concepcion , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 2
50
+2
99.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
99.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 17 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gaethan Bernadel) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
99.7%
CJ Bailey sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 38 CJ Bailey fumbled, recovered by STAN Jacarrius Peak , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+15
99.7%
(15:00) Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete deep left to Concepcion,KC thrown to STAN03 PENALTY STAN Pass Interference (Frausto-Ramos,Jshawn) 15 yards from STAN38 to STAN23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
99.7%
(14:53) Shotgun Smothers,Hollywood rush middle for 1 yard loss to the STAN24 (Rose,Matt; Edwards,Scotty) PENALTY STAN Face Mask (Staples,Omar) 12 yards from STAN23 to STAN11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the STAN 9Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
99.8%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the STAN 5Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.8%
Cole Tabb run for 23 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.8%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 49Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Justin Lamson run for 6 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the STAN 49Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Isiah Jones run for no gain to the STAN 49Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+14
99.9%
Isiah Jones run for 14 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
99.9%
Lex Thomas pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 12 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Jayden Scott run for 3 yds to the STAN 26Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Lex Thomas pass intercepted Tevarua Tafiti return for no gain to the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.9%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the NCSU 41Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+29
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 29 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.9%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 14 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Coleson Fields run for 3 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Coleson Fields run for 3 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Coleson Fields run for 2 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 42 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for no gain to the STAN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.9%
(03:31) Shotgun Davis Jr.,Chris rush left for 0 yards to the STAN20 (Vick,Jackson) PENALTY STAN Holding (Roush,Sam) 10 yards from STAN20 to STAN10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Chris Davis Jr. run for no gain to the STAN 10Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+4
100.0%
Chris Davis Jr. run for 4 yds to the STAN 14Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+5
100.0%
(01:57) Shotgun Lamson,Justin pass complete short right to Raines,Jayson caught at STAN23, for 9 yards to the STAN23 (Marshall,Devon; Hinton,Rent) PENALTY NCSU Offside (Cleveland,Brandon) 5 yards from STAN14 to STAN19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-6
100.0%
Justin Lamson sacked by Kelvon McBride for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 13Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
100.0%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
100.0%
Jayden Scott run for 4 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
100.0%
Jayden Scott run for 3 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-1
100.0%
L. Thomas takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:04
Kevin Concepcion run for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q3 11:22
Ashton Daniels run for 48 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q2 0:34
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 8 yds for a TD (Collin Smith KICK)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com