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NCSU

NC State 29 at Georgia Tech 30

GT
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 21, 2024 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:15 · CJ Bailey pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior+13.5Home team on offense+3.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:47: CJ Bailey run for 28 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +21.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:40: Haynes King run for 3 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +25.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:07: CJ Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK) — NCSU win probability +29.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:30: Hollywood Smothers run for 53 yds for a TD (C. Bailey Run For Two-point Conversion) — NCSU win probability +55.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:22: Aaron Philo run for 18 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +64.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:15GT 4th & 13 at NCSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:26GT 4th & 7 at GT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:29GT 4th & 3 at NCSU 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:33NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:16GT 4th & 9 at NCSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−4.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:15NCSU 4th & 3 at GT 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−1.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:54GT 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:55NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:56GT 4th & 14 at GT 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−2.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:29NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 42, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:55GT 4th & 6 at NCSU 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−7.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:25GT 4th & 7 at NCSU 39, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−2.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:17NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 17, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−3.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:30GT 4th & 3 at GT 32, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 7:18GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:27NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:47NCSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:40GT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:07NCSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:30NCSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.5 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.2%−2.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:22GT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−12.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:3375% → 74%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 5 yds to the GT 30Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
74.4%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the GT 33Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
74.3%
Haynes King run for 2 yds to the GT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for no gain to the GT 35Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+22
74.1%
Jamal Haynes run for 7 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
74.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Chad Alexander for 2 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
74.3%
Aaron Philo pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 8
OPP 41
-5
73.8%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
74.1%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
73.7%
David Shanahan punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2526% → 26%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
73.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 16Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
73.6%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+8
73.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 8 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
73.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1074% → 73%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
73.6%
Eric Singleton Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the GT 33Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
73.1%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 5 yds to the GT 38Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-5
73.0%
Georgia Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GT 33Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+6
72.7%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Avery Boyd for 6 yds to the GT 39Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
72.5%
David Shanahan punt for 34 yds, downed at the NCSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-21
75.0%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted E.J. Lightsey return for 21 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4825% → 30%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.2%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
75.1%
Bailey, CJ pass incomplete, PENALTY GATECH pass interference 15 yards to the NCSU46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSU.Similar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
74.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 3 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+14
74.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 14 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
74.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 15 yds to the GT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
73.6%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the GT 19Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
73.6%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the GT 16Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
69.7%
CJ Bailey run for 16 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:5172% → 72%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
71.5%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 20 yds to the GT 45 for a 1ST down Georgia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the GT 38Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+16
72.1%
Haynes King run for 16 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
72.6%
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd to the NCSU 45Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+12
72.5%
Jamal Haynes run for 12 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
72.7%
Eric Singleton Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 35Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+2
72.3%
Jamal Haynes run for 2 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+7
71.8%
Aaron Philo run for 7 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
72.0%
Aidan Birr 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3928% → 28%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
70.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
71.5%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
72.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds , Bailey Stockton returns for 2 yds to the GT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 5:5571% → 76%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
71.4%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Avery Boyd for 4 yds to the GT 37Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+17
72.1%
Chad Alexander run for 2 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
73.0%
Haynes King run for 4 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
73.0%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 3 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+3
72.5%
Aaron Philo run for 3 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
72.9%
Jamal Haynes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 37Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+12
73.3%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Avery Boyd for 12 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
73.8%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the NCSU 22Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
73.8%
Haynes King run for 4 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-6
73.0%
Haynes King sacked by Devon Betty for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSU 24Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
76.3%
Aidan Birr 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:3026% → 25%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
73.9%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 23Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+24
74.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 24 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.7%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
72.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the GT 47Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+1
71.4%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the GT 46Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
74.8%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0678% → 78%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
78.0%
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd to the GT 47Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+12
77.8%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 12 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
78.4%
Jamal Haynes run for no gain to the NCSU 41Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
78.3%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 7 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+1
77.9%
Aaron Philo run for 1 yd to the NCSU 33Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
77.8%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3024% → 25%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
76.1%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
75.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 9 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-9
74.8%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Trenilyas Tatum return for 9 yds to the GT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0579% → 78%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.7%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
78.3%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5526% → 24%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
73.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 29Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
74.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for no gain to the NCSU 29Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
75.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4877% → 75%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
76.5%
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd to the GT 31Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
76.3%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the GT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
77.9%
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd to the GT 44Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
77.9%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-5
76.4%
Georgia Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GT 39Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 14
OWN 39
0
76.0%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
74.6%
David Shanahan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:1626% → 26%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
74.4%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the NCSU 21Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
73.9%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+12
75.4%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 12 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
73.6%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 4 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-1
72.6%
CJ Bailey sacked by Kyle Efford for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 36Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+6
74.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 6 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
73.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:1276% → 84%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
76.3%
Bailey Stockton run for 4 yds to the GT 16Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+3
76.4%
Haynes King run for 3 yds to the GT 19Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+49
75.4%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 49 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
80.0%
Leo Blackburn run for no gain to the NCSU 32Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
80.0%
Aaron Philo run for 4 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
79.0%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
83.9%
Aidan Birr 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4616% → 41%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.7%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 9 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
82.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 34Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
83.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 10 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
82.7%
CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+19
82.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 19 yds to the GT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
80.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the GT 28Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+28
59.5%
CJ Bailey run for 28 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:1568% → 69%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
68.0%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Avery Boyd for 23 yds to the GT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
71.3%
Haynes King run for a loss of 4 yards to the GT 40 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by GT Haynes King Haynes King run for a loss of 4 yards to the GT 40Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 18
OWN 40
0
68.1%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+18
68.2%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 18 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
73.4%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
73.0%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
72.1%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
69.0%
David Shanahan punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5434% → 31%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
65.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
66.5%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+1
68.0%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd to the NCSU 17Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
69.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20INT
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:2669% → 74%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
68.9%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 16 yds to the GT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
72.3%
Chad Alexander run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 6
50
+38
72.7%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 38 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
74.3%
Chad Alexander run for 3 yds to the NCSU 9Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-18
74.3%
Aaron Philo pass intercepted Bishop Fitzgerald return for 18 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1836% → 34%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
64.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 3 yds to the NCSU 21Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
64.8%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-16
66.4%
CJ Bailey pass intercepted Romello Height return for 16 yds to the NCSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.0%
Haynes King run for 3 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2111% → 44%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.3%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
89.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 13 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
89.0%
CJ Bailey run for 31 yds to the GT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
87.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 26Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+25
87.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 25 yds to the GT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.1%
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1874% → 74%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Haynes King run for no gain to the GT 25Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.7%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the GT 32Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
75.1%
Aaron Philo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
73.7%
David Shanahan punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:4034% → 94%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
65.9%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 11 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
64.6%
Hollywood Smothers run for 5 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
61.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for 3 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+53
5.7%
Hollywood Smothers run for 53 yds for a TD (C. Bailey Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:5817% → 88%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.2%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Chase Lane for 6 yds to the GT 31Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
18.1%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 2 yds to the GT 33Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
17.9%
Aaron Philo run for 6 yds to the GT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
17.9%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 17 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
20.7%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 8 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+18
21.0%
Aaron Philo run for 18 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
87.7%
Aaron Philo run for 18 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0927% → 28%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+28
73.1%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 28 yds to the GT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
68.0%
CJ Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+58
72.1%
Collin Smith 58 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:22
Aaron Philo run for 18 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+64.3
TD · Q4 1:30
Hollywood Smothers run for 53 yds for a TD (C. Bailey Run For Two-point Conversion)
-55.4
TD · Q4 4:07
CJ Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
-29.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com