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GAST

Georgia State 27 at UConn 34

CONN
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2024 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:47 · Connor Stutz punt for 34 yds, downed at the GAST 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+27.0Pregame prior+1.7Garbage-time factor+13.8Score differential+11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+4.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:01: Durell Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +9.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:54: Nick Evers run for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:26: Mel Brown run for 31 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +7.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:31: Freddie Brock run for 55 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +6.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:47: Zach Gibson run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +13.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:39GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:44GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:36CONN 4th & 3 at GAST 24, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:29GAST 4th & 13 at CONN 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:54CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:20CONN 4th & 5 at GAST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:32GAST 4th & 1 at CONN 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−3.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:36GAST 4th & 3 at CONN 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−10.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:52CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:59GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:31GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:47CONN 4th & 7 at GAST 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:58GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:52CONN 4th & 1 at GAST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:31CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:36GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:01CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:54CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:26CONN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:31GAST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:47GAST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2129% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 5 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
71.4%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
71.3%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
71.3%
James Allen punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:0171% → 72%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
71.4%
Mel Brown run for 52 yds to the GAST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
71.5%
Mel Brown run for 5 yds to the GAST 2Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.1%
Nick Evers pass complete to Louis Hansen for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:4228% → 28%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
71.8%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the GAST 25Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-2
71.9%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 23Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+8
72.1%
Zach Gibson run for 8 yds to the GAST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
72.0%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
72.0%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the GAST 35Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+4
72.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 4 yds to the GAST 39Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+3
72.4%
James Allen punt for 47 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 3 yds to the CONN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:4473% → 74%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
72.5%
Nick Evers pass complete to Mel Brown for 11 yds to the CONN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
72.6%
Mel Brown run for 3 yds to the CONN 31Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
72.7%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+12
72.5%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 12 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
73.3%
Durell Robinson run for 1 yd to the CONN 44Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+11
73.3%
Durell Robinson run for 11 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
73.6%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 8 yds to the GAST 37Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+6
73.7%
Nick Evers pass complete to Louis Hansen for 6 yds to the GAST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.9%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
73.9%
Nick Evers run for 7 yds to the GAST 24Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
73.7%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
73.9%
Chris Freeman 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5527% → 32%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Petey Tucker for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
72.9%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
73.4%
Zach Gibson run for 2 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
73.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 11 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
73.0%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
72.9%
Freddie Brock run for 9 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
72.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Petey Tucker for 14 yds to the CONN 25 for a 1ST down UConn Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Rante Jones) to the CONN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
72.3%
Kyle Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 13Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+6
72.5%
Kyle Lowe run for 6 yds to the CONN 7Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
68.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 7 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:2670% → 70%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.6%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
69.5%
Nick Evers pass complete to Louis Hansen for 4 yds to the CONN 32Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
69.2%
(12:25) EDWARDS, Cam rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the UCONN37 (ROBINSON, Josiah), clock 12:21. PENALTY UCONN Holding on HONIG, Alex enforced 10 yards from the UCONN32 to the UCONN22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
68.5%
Nick Evers pass complete to Shamar Porter for 15 yds to the CONN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
69.8%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 39Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
70.2%
Durell Robinson run for 7 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
70.1%
Durell Robinson run for 2 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
70.7%
Nick Evers sacked by Henry Bryant for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 47Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-1
69.8%
Durell Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 46 Durell Robinson fumbled, recovered by GAST Henry Bryant H. Bryant return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FG
13 plays · 33 yds · 5:3633% → 37%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
67.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Freddie Brock for 6 yds to the CONN 40Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+1
66.7%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the CONN 39Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
67.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 5 yds to the CONN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
66.4%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the CONN 33Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
66.2%
Zach Gibson run for 3 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+11
67.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 11 yds to the CONN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
65.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 10 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
65.7%
(04:39) QB Keeper LOWE, Kyle rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards, LOWE, Kyle fumbled at UCONN13 , recovered by GAST MURRAY JR., DJ at the UCONN13, returned 1 yard to the UCONN12, out of bounds, clock 04:34. PENALTY GAST Holding on THOMPSON, Cadarrius enforced 10 yards from the UCONN9 to the UCONN19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
0
65.9%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+6
66.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 6 yds to the CONN 13Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
66.6%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
63.2%
Liam Rickman 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3366% → 63%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.3%
Nick Evers run for 2 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
65.9%
Mel Brown run for 1 yd to the CONN 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
64.1%
Nick Evers run for 4 yds to the CONN 32Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
64.1%
UConn Penalty, Illegal Snap on CHRISTINAT, Zach enforced (-5 Yards) to the CONN 27Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
63.3%
Connor Stutz punt for 44 yds , DJ Riles returns for 4 yds to the GAST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:3839% → 41%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
61.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Petey Tucker for 10 yds to the GAST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
59.8%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the GAST 46Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
59.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 3 yds to the GAST 49Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-20
59.3%
Zach Gibson pass intercepted D'Mon Brinson return for 20 yds to the GAST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:4069% → 69%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
69.1%
Mel Brown run for 11 yds to the GAST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
69.1%
Mel Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 16Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+1
67.5%
Nick Evers run for 1 yd to the GAST 15Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
66.7%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+5
64.7%
Georgia State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Zach Gibson) to the GAST 10Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
69.3%
Chris Freeman 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
67.6%
(00:15) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at GAST30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5969% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.9%
Nick Evers pass complete to Mel Brown for 7 yds to the CONN 32Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
71.1%
Nick Evers pass complete to Louis Hansen for 2 yds to the CONN 34Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+46
70.2%
Cam Edwards run for 46 yds to the GAST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
73.0%
Mel Brown run for 1 yd to the GAST 19Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+15
72.9%
(12:51) EVERS, Nick pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BELL, Skyler broken up by MORRIS, Ja'Maric at the GAST0, clock 12:37. PENALTY GAST Pass Interference on MORRIS, Ja'Maric enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the GAST4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
72.8%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the GAST 1Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.2%
Durell Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 7:2520% → 25%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.2%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the GAST 27Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
80.0%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+26
81.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 26 yds to the CONN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
78.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 49 fumbled, recovered by GAST Zach Gibson Z. Gibson return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+6
80.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Petey Tucker for 6 yds to the CONN 45Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+7
79.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Freddie Brock for 7 yds to the CONN 38Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
80.4%
Zach Gibson run for 1 yd to the CONN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
79.2%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+20
79.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 20 yds to the CONN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
77.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 4 yds to the CONN 13Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
78.0%
Michel Dukes run for 5 yds to the CONN 8Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+1
79.3%
Kyle Lowe run for 1 yd to the CONN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
78.2%
Kyle Lowe pass complete to DJ Murray Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 10Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
78.4%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
80.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 7 yds to the CONN 3Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
75.1%
Liam Rickman 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4480% → 78%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.8%
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the CONN 25Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
79.0%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Connor Stutz punt for 69 yds, downed at the GAST 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3923% → 21%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
77.5%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the GAST 7Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+7
77.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Rykem Laney for 7 yds to the GAST 14Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 2
OWN 14
-1
78.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 13Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
79.5%
James Allen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:0183% → 95%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
83.4%
Nick Evers pass complete to Louis Hansen for 8 yds to the GAST 49Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
85.5%
Mel Brown run for 5 yds to the GAST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
85.8%
Georgia State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Josiah Robinson) to the GAST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
86.2%
Mel Brown run for 11 yds to the GAST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
86.9%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the GAST 18Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+8
87.1%
Nick Evers run for 8 yds to the GAST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
87.5%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the GAST 5Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.5%
Nick Evers run for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:108% → 9%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
91.7%
Zach Gibson sacked by Langston Hardy and Dal'Mont Gourdine for a loss of 10 yards to the GAST 11Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+9
91.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 9 yds to the GAST 20Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+15
92.2%
(11:44) GIBSON, Zach pass up the middle incomplete intended for HURST, Ted thrown to the GAST34, clock 11:39. PENALTY UCONN Roughing the Passer on GOURDINE, Dal'Mont enforced 15 yards from the GAST20 to the GAST35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
91.3%
Christian Veilleux pass intercepted Malik Dixon-Williams return for 15 yds to the GAST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.7%
Mel Brown run for 31 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:441% → 8%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
98.6%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the GAST 37Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
98.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Petey Tucker for 6 yds to the GAST 43Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
98.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Freddie Brock for 2 yds to the GAST 45Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+55
92.1%
Freddie Brock run for 55 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:3995% → 97%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.4%
Georgia State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Christian Lorenzo) to the CONN 30Similar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+11
95.6%
Mel Brown run for 11 yds to the CONN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
95.9%
Mel Brown run for 6 yds to the CONN 47Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
96.1%
Mel Brown run for 1 yd to the CONN 48Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+8
96.3%
Cam Edwards run for 8 yds to the GAST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
96.7%
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the GAST 38Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
96.8%
Nick Evers run for 1 yd to the GAST 37Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
97.0%
Mel Brown run for 1 yd to the GAST 36Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-5
96.7%
UConn Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the GAST 41Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
96.8%
Connor Stutz punt for 34 yds, downed at the GAST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
17 plays · 93 yds · 2:566% → 19%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
94.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 9 yds to the GAST 16Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+15
94.2%
(04:31) GIBSON, Zach pass up the middle incomplete dropped by DUKES, Michel thrown to the GAST22, clock 04:29. PENALTY UCONN Roughing the Passer on YATES, Pryce enforced 15 yards from the GAST16 to the GAST31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.7%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
95.3%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.4%
(04:03) GIBSON, Zach scrambles to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the GAST34 (FAUMUINA-BROWN, Tui), clock 03:58. PENALTY UCONN Offsides on FAUMUINA-BROWN, Tui enforced 5 yards from the GAST31 to the GAST36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+5
94.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 5 yds to the GAST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
94.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 8 yds to the GAST 49Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-5
94.1%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (Ben Chukwuma) to the GAST 44Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
94.6%
Zach Gibson run for 10 yds to the CONN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
94.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Freddie Brock for 9 yds to the CONN 37Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-10
94.2%
(02:30) GIBSON, Zach pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for FLEMING, Dorian broken up by MCDONALD, Jayden at the UCONN20, clock 02:28. PENALTY GAST Holding on CHUKWUMA, Ben enforced 10 yards from the UCONN37 to the UCONN47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+45
94.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 45 yds to the CONN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.8%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.1%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.6%
Zach Gibson run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:2895% → 97%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.4%
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the GAST 34Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
97.2%
Cam Edwards run for 7 yds to the GAST 27Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
97.4%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the GAST 25Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+4
97.5%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the GAST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
97.2%
(00:18) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at GAST22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Zach Gibson run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 12:01
Durell Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q4 11:26
Mel Brown run for 31 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com