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LSU

LSU 16 at Florida 27

FLA
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:42 · Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−3.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:39: Aaron Anderson 28 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:07: Trey Smack 55 Yd Field Goal — FLA win probability +8.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: 4th down).
  3. TD · Q4 13:58: Ja'Kobi Jackson 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +23.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:18: Damian Ramos 38 Yd Field Goal — LSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:48: Jadan Baugh 55 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +12.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:42LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10FLA 4th & 17 at FLA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:27LSU 4th & 10 at FLA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:30FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:27FLA 4th & 3 at LSU 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:10LSU 4th & 18 at FLA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:38FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:54LSU 4th & 24 at FLA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−4.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−9.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:07FLA 4th & 13 at LSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    40% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:04FLA 4th & 18 at LSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−3.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52LSU 4th & 13 at LSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−6.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:02LSU 4th & 3 at FLA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.5%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:10LSU 4th & 4 at FLA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−2.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:18LSU 4th & 10 at FLA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−8.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:47LSU 4th & 12 at FLA 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:12FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:39LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:58FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:48FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1054% → 53%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
46.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 15 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
46.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 6 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
46.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 2 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
46.7%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-3
47.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:2548% → 47%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
47.5%
Baugh, Jadan rush for 1 yard to the LSU45, PENALTY FLA holding (Barber, Austin) 10 yards to the FLA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-5
47.4%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Jake Slaughter) to the FLA 39Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 25
OWN 39
0
47.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Chimere Dike, broken up by Ashton StampsSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 25
OWN 39
+13
47.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 13 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 12
OPP 48
0
47.6%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 12
OPP 48
-5
47.4%
Florida Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the FLA 47Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
47.4%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:5153% → 52%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
47.4%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Caleb Banks) to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
47.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
47.3%
Caden Durham run for 8 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
47.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for no gain to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
47.8%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5448% → 53%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Aidan Mizell, broken up by Davhon KeysSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+34
47.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 34 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
49.2%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 20 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
52.5%
Elijhah Badger 23 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 6:3949% → 45%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.3%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
51.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Ka'Morreun PimptonSimilar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
51.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
51.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 6 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
51.6%
Caden Durham run for 8 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
51.6%
Caden Durham run for 9 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
51.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
52.1%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
51.7%
Zavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-5
52.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Will Campbell) to the FLA 37Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 13
OPP 37
-2
53.7%
Caden Durham run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 39Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+5
54.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 5 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
55.5%
Damian Ramos 51 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5156% → 57%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
56.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 11 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
57.3%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan BaughSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
56.9%
Jadan Baugh run for no gain to the FLA 45Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+4
56.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
56.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 5:4443% → 53%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
56.7%
Caden Durham run for 7 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+2
56.6%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
57.3%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
57.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
59.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+12
59.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 12 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
59.0%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
59.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy, broken up by Bryce ThorntonSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+9
60.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 9 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
59.0%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+20
58.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 20 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
57.8%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the FLA 28Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
58.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Caden DurhamSimilar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
47.2%
Aaron Anderson 28 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0553% → 58%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 14 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
54.2%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 1 yd to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
54.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for 8 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
55.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
56.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.3%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Marcus Burke, broken up by Zy AlexanderSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
56.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
56.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
58.1%
Trey Smack 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 2:5842% → 50%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
58.3%
Caden Durham run for 16 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
57.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
55.3%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
55.6%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
54.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 6 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
54.6%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
54.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+13
54.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
52.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-8
53.0%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Shemar James for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 33Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 18
OPP 33
0
56.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason Taylor, broken up by Shemar JamesSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+50
50.0%
Damian Ramos 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:1453% → 52%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
53.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 19 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
55.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 45Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
55.7%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
53.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
52.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 7:3750% → 55%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
49.6%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-5
50.1%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Caleb Banks for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 8 Garrett Nussmeier fumbled, forced by Caleb Banks, recovered by LSU Paul Mubenga , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+16
52.1%
Josh Williams run for 16 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
50.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
50.4%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+13
51.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 13 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
48.3%
Caden Durham run for 7 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
47.3%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
50
+14
46.7%
Caden Durham run for 14 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
46.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr., broken up by Jordan CastellSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+22
46.8%
Josh Williams run for 22 yds to the FLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
45.1%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 15Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+2
45.5%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the FLA 13Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-15
47.1%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass complete to Daniels, CJ for 13 yards to the FLA0, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Lacy, Kyren) 15 yards to the FLA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 24
OPP 28
0
49.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 24
OPP 28
+45
45.1%
Damian Ramos 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 2:4345% → 52%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
45.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
43.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 17 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
49.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 24 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
51.8%
Lagway, DJ pass complete to Jackson, Ja'Kobi for 17 yards to the LSU17, PENALTY FLA holding (Barber, Austin) 10 yards to the LSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
47.7%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Marcus Burke, broken up by Sage RyanSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 20
OPP 44
-5
47.4%
Florida Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 25
OPP 49
+12
47.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 12 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
44.3%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi JacksonSimilar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+55
52.3%
Trey Smack 55 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5750% → 50%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason Taylor, broken up by Aaron ChilesSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.4%
Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
50.5%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by T.J. Searcy for a loss of 12 yards to the LSU 17 Garrett Nussmeier fumbled, forced by T.J. Searcy, recovered by LSU Emery Jones Jr. , return for 5 yds to the LSU 34 Emery Jones Jr. fumbled, forced by Caleb Banks, recovered by FLA Caleb Banks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0160% → 52%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
60.4%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Aidan Mizell) to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
57.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 15
OPP 39
-3
56.9%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 18
OPP 42
0
55.0%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Aidan MizellSimilar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
52.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 34 yds, downed at the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0849% → 45%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
51.0%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
51.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-5
52.6%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 13
OWN 5
-2
54.7%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 38 yds , Chimere Dike returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 45 Chimere Dike fumbled, recovered by FLASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:4960% → 84%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
60.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 8 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+36
60.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 36 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Ja'Kobi Jackson 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 8:3323% → 32%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
76.9%
Caden Durham run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
77.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 2 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+20
79.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 20 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
75.5%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-7
75.0%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Kamran James for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+11
79.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+7
77.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
74.7%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
74.9%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the FLA 36Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
74.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+15
77.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 15 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
73.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Emery Jones Jr.) to the FLA 26Similar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+3
76.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 3 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+1
76.8%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the FLA 22Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+1
79.7%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd to the FLA 21Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
67.7%
Damian Ramos 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2382% → 95%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 26Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
82.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 19 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
94.8%
Jadan Baugh 55 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 37 yds · 2:577% → 3%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
93.3%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Shemar James for a loss of 12 yards to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+2
95.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Caden Durham for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+24
96.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
50
+2
94.7%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 2 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+12
94.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 12 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
94.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
94.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 5 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-7
94.0%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 38Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
96.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason Taylor, broken up by Trikweze BridgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3998% → 98%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 37Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-1
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:58
Ja'Kobi Jackson 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)
+23.5
TD · Q4 3:48
Jadan Baugh 55 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)
+12.1
FG · Q4 5:18
Damian Ramos 38 Yd Field Goal
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com