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FLA

Florida 17 at Texas 49

TEX
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:08 · Bert Auburn 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+40.5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:43: Matthew Golden 29 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +1.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:11: Gunnar Helm 22 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +1.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:54: Quintrevion Wisner 50 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:19: Matthew Golden 32 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:23: Jaydon Blue 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:08TEX 4th & 19 at FLA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:38FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:56TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06FLA 4th & 7 at TEX 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:47TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:05FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:46FLA 4th & 21 at TEX 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:03FLA 4th & 5 at TEX 5, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:14TEX 4th & 15 at TEX 20, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:53FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 26, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:28TEX 4th & 2 at FLA 44, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:43TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:11TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:54TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:19TEX Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:23TEX Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:52TEX Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:30FLA Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55TEX Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:27FLA Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:5193% → 91%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 10 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
92.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 12 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
92.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 20 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
92.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+4
92.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Juan Davis for 4 yds to the FLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
92.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 7 yds to the FLA 16Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-7
92.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 23Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-9
91.7%
Quinn Ewers sacked by T.J. Searcy for a loss of 9 yards to the FLA 32Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 19
OPP 32
+51
91.3%
Bert Auburn 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:299% → 10%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
91.3%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 5 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
91.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 9 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
90.8%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 44Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-3
90.7%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 41Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+7
90.5%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
90.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, downed at the TEX 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:5490% → 91%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
90.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Gunnar HelmSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+9
90.1%
Quinn Ewers run for 9 yds to the TEX 24Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
89.7%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+44
89.8%
Isaiah Bond run for 44 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
90.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd to the FLA 29Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
91.3%
Matthew Golden 29 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:269% → 9%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.0%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Arlis Boardingham) to the FLA 20Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+15
91.0%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 5 yds to the FLA 23 Ja'Kobi Jackson fumbled, forced by Anthony Hill Jr., recovered by TEX Trey Moore , return for 13 yds to the FLA 12 Texas Penalty, Illegal Block (Jelani McDonald) to the FLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:0691% → 93%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
91.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Quintrevion WisnerSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
92.6%
Gunnar Helm 22 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:158% → 8%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
92.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the FLA 19Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+11
92.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 11 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Jadan Baugh run for no gain to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+6
91.8%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Marcus Burke for 6 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
91.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5592% → 92%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
92.1%
Blue, Jaydon rush for 2 yards to the TEX22, PENALTY TEX holding (Banks Jr., Kelvin) 10 yards to the TEX10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
92.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for no gain to the TEX 10Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
92.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+2
91.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 2 yds to the TEX 12Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
91.7%
Michael Kern punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:439% → 8%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
91.3%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Chimere Dike for 39 yds to the TEX 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
90.5%
Aidan Warner run for no gain to the TEX 15Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
90.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the TEX 8Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+1
91.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the TEX 7Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 2
OPP 7
-5
91.5%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TEX 12Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
91.7%
Trey Smack 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1993% → 92%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 2 yds to the TEX 22Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
92.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd to the TEX 23Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+19
92.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 19 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
92.7%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
92.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
91.9%
Michael Kern punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:428% → 8%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.1%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
92.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 18Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 9
OWN 18
-3
92.3%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Tank Hawkins for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 15Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 12
OWN 15
+13
92.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 48 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
50
+50
96.9%
Quintrevion Wisner 50 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 4:034% → 4%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
95.8%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for 13 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
95.7%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 5 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Illegal Block (Jaylon Guilbeau) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
50
0
95.5%
Aidan Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
50
+5
95.7%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 5 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
95.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 8 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
95.9%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 6 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
95.6%
Aidan Warner run for no gain to the TEX 31Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-10
95.8%
Warner, Aidan pass incomplete to Dike, Chimere, PENALTY FLA holding (Barber, Austin) 10 yards to the TEX41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 14
OPP 41
-7
96.4%
Aidan Warner sacked by Jaylon Guilbeau for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 48Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
96.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:2797% → 99%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 3 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+45
97.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 45 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jaydon BlueSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.1%
Matthew Golden 32 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:211% → 1%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.2%
Aidan Warner pass intercepted Ty'Anthony Smith return for 5 yds to the FLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
99.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Silas Bolden for 20 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+20
99.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 20 yds to the FLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.2%
Jaydon Blue 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.5%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 8 yds to the FLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 9 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-9
99.3%
Aidan Warner pass intercepted Andrew Mukuba return for 9 yds to the FLA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:2199% → 100%
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 2 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
99.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the FLA 29Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-5
99.4%
Texas Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Trevor Goosby) to the FLA 34Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+34
99.5%
Isaiah Bond 34 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:481% → 0%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.5%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 7 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.5%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 6 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.6%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
99.6%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
99.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
50
0
99.6%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 10
50
+4
99.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+22
99.7%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 7 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Roughing Passer (Barryn Sorrell) to the TEX 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the TEX 22Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
99.6%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+16
99.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 16 yds to the TEX 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the TEX 5Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.6%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.7%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Ja'Quavion FraziarsSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
99.6%
Trey Smack 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Jaydon Blue run for 5 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
99.7%
Blue, Jaydon rush for 6 yards to the TEX36, PENALTY TEX holding (Williams, Cameron) 10 yards to the TEX20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jaydon BlueSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Michael Kern punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:410% → 0%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.7%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 5 yds to the TEX 48Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+8
99.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 8 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.8%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 12 yds to the TEX 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
99.8%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Chimere Dike for 13 yds to the TEX 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the TEX 11Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
99.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 7 yds to the TEX 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the TEX 2Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Jadan Baugh 2 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
99.8%
Jaydon Blue run for 45 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
99.8%
Jerrick Gibson run for 12 yds to the FLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
99.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds to the FLA 14Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Jerrick Gibson 14 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 26Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Tank HawkinsSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Amir JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+29
99.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 30 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Ja'Markis Weston) to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 7
50
+13
99.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Silas Bolden for 13 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 1 yd to the FLA 36Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-5
99.9%
Manning, Arch pass complete to Bolden, Silas for 11 yards to the FLA25, PENALTY TEX ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FLA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+8
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 8 yds to the FLA 33 Jerrick Gibson fumbled, forced by Myles Graham, recovered by FLA Aaron GatesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
99.9%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Chimere Dike for 20 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 9 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Aidan Warner pass incomplete to Aidan MizellSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
99.9%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 11 yds to the TEX 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
99.9%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Chimere Dike for 16 yds to the TEX 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Ja'Kobi Jackson 7 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26END OF GAME
16 plays · 68 yds · 8:26100% → 100%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 3 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 32Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 10 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 1 yd to the TEX 49Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Colin Page run for 5 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Amari Niblack for 2 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 5 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Colin Page run for 2 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+25
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 25 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 4 yds to the FLA 6Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:54
Quintrevion Wisner 50 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+4.5
TD · Q2 1:19
Matthew Golden 32 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+1.5
TD · Q1 3:11
Gunnar Helm 22 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com