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FLA

Florida 17 at Tennessee 23

TENN
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+19.9TENN 59.3%Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds for a TD(Max Gilbert KICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q3 2:57
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Q3 2:57 · Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 112Pregame prior+9.9Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.5Time remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:18: Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 13 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +13.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:57: Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +19.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:42: Dylan Sampson run for 23 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +20.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:29: DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 27 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +35.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd for a TD — TENN win probability +21.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:58FLA 4th & 4 at TENN 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15FLA 4th & 5 at TENN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:20TENN 4th & 29 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:16FLA 4th & 1 at TENN 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−1.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:36TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.6%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:13FLA 4th & 17 at FLA 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−3.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:32TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:57TENN 4th & 1 at FLA 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−4.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−16.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:37TENN 4th & 7 at FLA 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−12.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:04FLA 4th & 3 at TENN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−4.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−3.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:12TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−2.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:11FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−9.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:09FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:55TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:17FLA 4th & 22 at TENN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:31TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 7:18FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:57TENN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:42TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:29FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−5.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:1381% → 80%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 14 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
80.6%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the TENN 39Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
80.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+24
80.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 24 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
80.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
80.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-2
80.2%
Nico Iamaleava run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 26 Nico Iamaleava fumbled, recovered by FLA Grayson HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1120% → 21%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
79.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 12 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
79.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
50
-1
79.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 49Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
79.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+7
79.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 7 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
79.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jermod McCoy at the TENN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4279% → 78%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
79.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 13Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-6
79.1%
Iamaleava, Nico rush for 9 yards to the TENN22, PENALTY TENN holding (Campbell Jr., John) 6 yards to the TENN7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 13
OWN 7
-2
79.0%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 5Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+2
78.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
78.2%
Jackson Ross punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FG
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:5122% → 24%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
78.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TENN 46Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+2
78.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
77.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
77.8%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
77.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
77.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+1
77.0%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the TENN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
76.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+7
76.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the TENN 20Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-4
76.5%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 24Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
76.3%
Trey Smack 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:5076% → 74%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.0%
Bru McCoy run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
76.4%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
75.9%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
75.9%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lance Heard) to the TENN 28Similar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+6
75.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 6 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+20
75.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 20 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
76.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 15 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
76.6%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Jaden Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-11
75.2%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 11 yards to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 26
OPP 47
-3
74.5%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by George Gumbs Jr. and Jaden Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 29
50
0
73.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6DOWNS
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:5526% → 30%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
73.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 14Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+17
73.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 17 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
73.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
72.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
71.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 45Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
71.4%
DJ Lagway run for 8 yds to the TENN 47Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+20
70.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 20 yds to the TENN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
69.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-2
69.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 26Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+8
70.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the TENN 18Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
70.5%
Eugene Wilson III run for no gain to the TENN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3271% → 69%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
71.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+15
70.7%
Nico Iamaleava run for 15 yds to the TENN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
71.0%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 31Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+5
70.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the TENN 36Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
70.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
69.3%
Jackson Ross punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:0731% → 36%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
69.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 17 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
68.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 2 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+23
67.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 23 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
66.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 18 yds to the TENN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
65.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the TENN 14Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+13
64.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the TENN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
63.9%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the TENN 1 Graham Mertz fumbled, forced by James Pearce Jr., recovered by TENN James Pearce Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5968% → 67%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
67.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the TENN 6Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+3
67.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the TENN 9Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+1
66.1%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the TENN 10Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+6
65.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
67.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 15Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+11
66.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 11 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-20
67.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Sharif Denson return for 20 yds to the TENN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · -8 yds · 1:1139% → 36%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
61.1%
Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the TENN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
61.0%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 16Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
61.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+1
61.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 1 yd to the TENN 15Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 14
OPP 15
-10
61.7%
Graham Mertz sacked by Boo Carter and Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 10 yards to the TENN 25Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 24
OPP 25
-5
64.4%
Florida Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the TENN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4036% → 35%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
63.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-2
64.1%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 11Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 12
OWN 11
-5
64.7%
DJ Lagway sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 6Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
65.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jermod McCoy at the TENN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3066% → 64%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
66.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 3
50
0
66.8%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 3
50
-1
65.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 49Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
63.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 4:0738% → 61%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
62.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 10Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+11
62.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 11 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+25
61.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 25 yds Chimere Dike fumbled, forced by Kalib Perry, recovered by FLASimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
58.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 20 yds to the TENN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
54.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
54.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis BoardinghamSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+15
55.4%
Graham Mertz run for 15 yds to the TENN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
53.2%
Jadan Baugh run for no gain to the TENN 13Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
39.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 13 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0342% → 59%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
41.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 16 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
43.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+2
42.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
42.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 23 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
43.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Holden Staes for 2 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
43.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the FLA 18Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+3
40.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the FLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
42.2%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the FLA 15Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
41.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 8 yds to the FLA 7Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
39.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the FLA 6Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
59.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
53.4%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Arion Carter return for 15 yds to the FLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0264% → 67%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
63.7%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the FLA 18Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+1
63.4%
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the FLA 17Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
60.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
66.6%
Max Gilbert 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2339% → 42%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
61.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 18 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
57.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 4 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
56.8%
DJ Lagway run for 7 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
56.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
56.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Aidan MizellSimilar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
58.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
58.2%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4766% → 62%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
66.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
65.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the TENN 41Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+5
63.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 5 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 3
OWN 46
-5
64.0%
Tennessee Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TENN 41Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
61.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 53 yds, downed at the FLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5640% → 38%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
59.9%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 5Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+1
59.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 6Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 10
OWN 6
-3
61.1%
Florida Penalty, Delay of Game (-3 Yards) to the FLA 3Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 13
OWN 3
0
60.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 13
OWN 3
+17
62.4%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 43 yds , Jermod McCoy returns for 17 yds to the FLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:2069% → 90%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
69.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 6 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
89.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 23 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2117% → 15%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 6 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
82.4%
DJ Lagway run for 1 yd to the FLA 32Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
83.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+17
84.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 59 yds , Jermod McCoy returns for 17 yds to the TENN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0689% → 88%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
88.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+4
87.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+30
88.3%
Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 30 yds to the TENN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:1618% → 12%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
82.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 12 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
81.1%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 38Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+1
84.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the TENN 37Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 12
OPP 37
-10
85.4%
DJ Lagway sacked by Boo Carter and James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the TENN 47Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 22
OPP 47
0
88.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jermod McCoy at the TENN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4092% → 92%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
92.1%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 7Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+3
92.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
93.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+27
92.3%
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 27 yds to the TENN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:3118% → 52%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
82.4%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 13 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
80.7%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 20Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 12
OPP 20
-6
82.2%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the TENN 26Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 18
OPP 26
-1
83.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 27Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 19
OPP 27
+27
47.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 27 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:2357% → 53%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.2%
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the TENN 26 Nico Iamaleava fumbled, forced by Grayson Howard, recovered by TENNSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
55.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 12 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
58.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-10
56.0%
Iamaleava, Nico rush for 9 yards to the TENN47, PENALTY TENN holding (Campbell Jr., John) 10 yards to the TENN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+20
52.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 20 yds to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27MISSED FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0059% → 44%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
41.7%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Jake Slaughter) to the TENN 30Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
-5
44.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 35Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+6
49.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the TENN 29Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
56.3%
Trey Smack 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
65.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Holden Staes for 3 yds to the FLA 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
65.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the FLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
65.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 11 yds to the FLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the FLA 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:29
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 27 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-35.6
TD · OT 0:00
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd for a TD
+21.1
TD · Q4 9:42
Dylan Sampson run for 23 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com