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UCF

UCF 13 at Florida 24

FLA
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:46 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 49 yds for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Randy Pittman Jr.) to the FLA 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense+7.2Score differential+2.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Pregame prior+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:50: Ja'Kobi Jackson 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +7.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:50: Montrell Johnson Jr. 3 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +6.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:04: Trey Smack 28 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +8.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:50: RJ Harvey 13 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick) — UCF win probability +10.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:50: Evan Morris kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — FLA win probability +4.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 2:32UCF 4th & 7 at FLA 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−3.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:06FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:07UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:35UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 32, down 11
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:41FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:46UCF 4th & 17 at UCF 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:27UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:56UCF 4th & 9 at FLA 34, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:32UCF 4th & 19 at FLA 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:23FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:45FLA 4th & 7 at UCF 35, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:30UCF 4th & 29 at UCF 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:28FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 40, up 18
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:27FLA 4th & 8 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:02FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:50FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:50FLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:50UCF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:5553% → 58%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
53.0%
Johnson Jr.,Montrell rush middle (Barr,Ethan).Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
53.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 10 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
53.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
53.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 6 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
53.7%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
53.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 5 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
53.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
54.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Tank Hawkins, broken up by Ladarius TennisonSimilar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
54.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+3
54.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
54.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
54.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+7
54.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 7 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
57.8%
Elijhah Badger 13 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:2843% → 45%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
56.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 30 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
56.2%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the FLA 41Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
56.3%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
56.5%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
56.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
56.3%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
56.4%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the FLA 17Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
56.5%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
56.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the FLA 10Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
56.8%
pass incomplete to Evan MorrisSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
57.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr., broken up by Bryce ThorntonSimilar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
55.4%
Grant Reddick 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:2156% → 55%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
55.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 16Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
55.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 20Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 3
OWN 20
-5
55.5%
Florida Penalty, false start (Damieon George Jr.) to the FLA 15Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-1
55.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 14Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
55.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5644% → 44%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
56.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
55.3%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
55.3%
Harvey,RJ rush middle (Sapp,Tyreak;Denson,Sharif).Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
56.3%
Jefferson,KJ rush middle (Banks,Caleb;Pyburn,Jack).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 1:1058% → 66%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
58.3%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 5 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+37
58.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 37 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.0%
Ja'Kobi Jackson 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0736% → 35%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
63.6%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+9
63.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 9 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
63.9%
Richardson,Johnny rush left (Douglas,DJ).Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
65.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:5067% → 68%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
66.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 18 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
68.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 41Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
68.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 6 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-3
68.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
67.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4832% → 30%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+28
67.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 28 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
67.2%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
67.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius Johnson, broken up by Trikweze BridgesSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-8
68.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Tyreak Sapp and R.J. Moten for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 17
OWN 24
+34
69.9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 49 yds for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Randy Pittman Jr.) to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:5071% → 82%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
70.9%
Baugh,Jadan rush left (Barr,Ethan).Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+31
70.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 31 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
72.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for no gain to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
73.0%
pass incomplete to Ja'Quavion FraziarsSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-5
72.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for no gain to the UCF 27 Florida Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+5
71.9%
Mertz,Graham rush , out-of-bounds, PENALTY UCF off-side (Kelly,Nyjalik) 5 yards to the UCF37. UCF Penalty, off-side (Nyjalik Kelly) to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+20
73.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 20 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
75.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike, broken up by Chasen Johnson for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, roughing passer (Deshawn Pace) to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. 3 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 31 yds · 0:5319% → 19%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.8%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
80.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 3 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
81.3%
pass incomplete to Trent WhittemoreSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
81.9%
Mitch McCarthy puntSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & -1
OWN 36
+15
81.8%
Florida Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Kobe Hudson, broken up by Jason Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
80.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 14 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
78.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 6 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-5
78.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (Paul Rubelt) to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
79.0%
pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
80.4%
pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 9
OPP 34
-10
81.1%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Justus Boone and George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 44 UCF Penalty, Defensive holding (Amari Kight) to the FLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:4483% → 91%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
82.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tank Hawkins for no gain to the FLA 44 Florida Penalty, illegal formation (Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson) to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+5
82.9%
DJ Lagway run for 5 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+34
82.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 34 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
82.8%
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
82.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
91.4%
Trey Smack 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 8:2811% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.4%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
88.8%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
89.5%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
89.6%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
90.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
50
+4
90.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
91.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the FLA 45Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
91.8%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
91.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 17 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
91.5%
Peny Boone run for 11 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.2%
Boone,Peny rush middle (Sapp,Tyreak;Pyburn,Jack).Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
92.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the FLA 9Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
93.6%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (Brandon Adams) to the FLA 14Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
93.8%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Grayson Howard for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 19Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
90.3%
Grant Reddick 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 5:3992% → 94%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 3 yds to the FLA 28Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
92.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
92.5%
Graham Mertz run for 3 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
92.6%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
93.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 24 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
94.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-10
94.2%
Graham Mertz sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for 0 yards to the UCF 29 Florida Penalty, Offensive holding (Hayden Hansen) to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-1
94.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+5
94.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+53
94.4%
Trey Smack 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:107% → 5%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
93.4%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+11
93.6%
RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
93.5%
UCF Penalty, false start (Paul Rubelt) to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-8
93.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by D'Antre Robinson and LJ McCray for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 23
OWN 40
0
94.4%
pass incomplete to RJ HarveySimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 23
OWN 40
-6
94.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 29
OWN 34
0
95.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5896% → 97%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
96.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 12 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
96.5%
Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+1
96.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 40Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
96.8%
pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 3:324% → 15%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
96.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 1 yd to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+35
96.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to RJ Harvey for 35 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the FLA 41Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+5
95.7%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
96.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
95.5%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+14
96.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Johnny Richardson for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Shemar James) to the FLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
85.4%
RJ Harvey 13 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:2291% → 94%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.2%
Tank Hawkins run for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
92.0%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 19 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
92.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tank Hawkins for a loss of 3 yards DJ Lagway fumbled, recovered by FLA Tank HawkinsSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+3
93.5%
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-5
93.5%
Florida Penalty, false start (Knijeah Harris) to the FLA 43Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+7
93.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 8
50
0
93.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:257% → 5%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
93.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
92.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for no gain to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+4
95.1%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
94.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 11 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.4%
pass incomplete to Trent WhittemoreSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
94.7%
KJ Jefferson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19Uncategorized
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:3896% → 96%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
96.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+6
96.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
96.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
96.3%
Graham Mertz run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 34Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-2
96.3%
Graham Mertz run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 32Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-1
96.3%
Graham Mertz run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:50
RJ Harvey 13 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick)
-10.6
FG · Q2 0:04
Trey Smack 28 yd FG GOOD
+8.6
TD · Q2 12:50
Ja'Kobi Jackson 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com