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FLA

Florida 45 at Mississippi State 28

MSST
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:42 · Nick Barr-Mira punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior−17.7Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:21: Davon Booth 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +6.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:02: Hayden Hansen 35 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +6.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:17: Ja'Kobi Jackson 10 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +8.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:38: Jordan Mosley 13 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +15.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:37: Graham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +11.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 13:17MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:56MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:42MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:36MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:16MSST 4th & 26 at FLA 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:21FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:10MSST 4th & 3 at FLA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:34FLA 4th & 3 at MSST 29, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:30MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 44, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 3:39FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:21MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:56FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:02FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:17FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:23MSST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:38MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:37FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:24FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:26MSST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3327% → 28%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
27.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 22Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
27.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for no gain to the MSST 22Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
27.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 3 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
27.7%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2672% → 71%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
27.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
28.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 5 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
28.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tony Livingston for no gain to the FLA 35Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
28.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 41 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for no gain to the MSST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3229% → 29%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
28.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Braylon BurnsideSimilar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
28.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 12 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
29.0%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
29.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
29.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
29.3%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 5:5171% → 73%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
29.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the FLA 18Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
29.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+8
30.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
30.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 4 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
30.0%
Treyaun Webb run for 7 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
30.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 9 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+16
30.1%
Graham Mertz run for 16 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
30.1%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Mizell, Aidan, PENALTY MSST roughing passer (Smith, Isaac) 15 yards to the MSST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLA.Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
29.9%
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
30.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+7
30.5%
Graham Mertz run for 7 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
30.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MSST 6Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
30.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MSST 3Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.5%
Arlis Boardingham 3 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:4929% → 36%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
29.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
29.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+10
29.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 10 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
29.9%
Kevin Coleman Jr. run for 9 yds to the FLA 36Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+25
30.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 25 yds to the FLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
30.6%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the FLA 8Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
30.6%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the FLA 5Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+4
30.1%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the FLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.1%
Davon Booth 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:2567% → 67%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.4%
Lagway, DJ pass incomplete to Livingston, Tony, PENALTY MSST offside 5 yards to the FLA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+10
32.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Marcus Burke for 10 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
32.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the MSST 48 Montrell Johnson Jr. fumbled, forced by Isaac Smith, recovered by MSST Kelley JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:4636% → 34%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
36.0%
Shapen, Blake rush for 4 yards to the FLA48, PENALTY MSST holding (Pounders, Makylan) 10 yards to the MSST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 20
OWN 38
0
35.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+3
35.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 17
OWN 41
0
34.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
34.1%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2466% → 73%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
33.9%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
33.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
50
+6
32.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 6 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+12
32.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 12 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
32.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ja'Kobi Jackson for 15 yds to the MSST 17 Florida Penalty, Illegal Block (Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson) to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+7
32.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 7 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
27.2%
Marcus Burke 20 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5329% → 28%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
29.3%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
29.3%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
28.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Mario CraverSimilar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+35
28.1%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 55 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 35 yds to the MSST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:1873% → 80%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
27.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tony Livingston for 9 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+35
20.5%
Hayden Hansen 35 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
15 plays · 33 yds · 4:2222% → 21%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.1%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
21.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
21.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
22.6%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Jordan Mosley) to the MSST 37Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+9
21.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
22.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
22.7%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+18
22.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 18 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
23.0%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 30Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 14
OPP 30
-9
22.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 1 yd to the FLA 29 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Ball) to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 23
OPP 39
+2
21.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 21
OPP 37
0
21.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelly AkharaiyiSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 21
OPP 37
-5
21.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 42Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 26
OPP 42
0
21.0%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 2:3879% → 92%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
20.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 10Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
20.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Marcus Burke for no gain to the FLA 10Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+13
20.7%
DJ Lagway run for 13 yds to the FLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
20.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
19.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 12 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
17.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+11
17.8%
Treyaun Webb run for 11 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+27
17.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 27 yds to the MSST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
17.3%
Treyaun Webb run for 3 yds to the MSST 10Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
8.2%
Ja'Kobi Jackson 10 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:3713% → 20%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
13.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Mario Craver for 16 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+37
13.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Mario Craver for 37 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
14.8%
Davon Booth run for 17 yds to the FLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
14.7%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the FLA 3Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
14.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Mario CraverSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.4%
Blake Shapen 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2482% → 82%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.4%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
18.1%
Treyaun Webb run for 2 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
18.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 1 yd to the FLA 33Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
18.4%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 6:3719% → 34%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
18.9%
Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+15
19.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 15 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
19.9%
Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
20.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the FLA 42 Johnnie Daniels fumbled, recovered by MSST Johnnie Daniels for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
19.6%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 48Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+6
18.9%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+15
18.7%
Davon Booth run for 15 yds to the FLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
19.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 29Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-4
19.1%
Blake Shapen sacked by Sharif Denson for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 33 Blake Shapen fumbled, forced by Sharif Denson, recovered by MSST Blake Shapen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+13
16.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 13 yds to the FLA 20Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+3
17.5%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the FLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
18.5%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the FLA 13Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
33.8%
Jordan Mosley 13 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5774% → 89%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Tony LivingstonSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
24.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (Montrell Johnson Jr.) to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
22.7%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Burke, Marcus, PENALTY MSST pass interference (Jones, Kelley) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLA.Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
22.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyler Woodard) to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+28
22.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 28 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
22.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MSST 12Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+4
22.0%
Treyaun Webb run for 4 yds to the MSST 8Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+7
22.6%
Treyaun Webb run for 7 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.7%
Graham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18FUMBLE
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:0714% → 15%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
13.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 15 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
14.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+18
14.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 18 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
15.2%
Davon Booth run for 13 yds to the FLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
15.9%
Shapen, Blake pass incomplete to Coleman Jr., Kevin, PENALTY FLA pass interference (Denson, Sharif) 12 yards to the FLA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MSST.Similar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
15.9%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the FLA 11Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
15.8%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the FLA 8Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
15.3%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the FLA 8Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+5
14.7%
Shapen, Blake pass incomplete to Coleman Jr., Kevin, PENALTY FLA pass interference (Denson, Sharif) 5 yards to the FLA3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MSST.Similar
Q3 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
15.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the FLA 1Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for no gain to the FLA 1Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.1%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the FLA 1Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-6
15.1%
Blake Shapen run for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 7 Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by FLA Grayson HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 5:2691% → 99%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
9.4%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the FLA 10Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+15
9.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Marcus Burke for 15 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
8.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 8 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
8.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to TJ Abrams for 3 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
7.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tony Livingston for 9 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+32
6.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 32 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
6.3%
Jadan Baugh run for 10 yds to the MSST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
5.8%
Treyaun Webb run for 8 yds to the MSST 5Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-1
5.7%
Treyaun Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 6Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
1.5%
Austin Barber 0 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:542% → 5%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Davon BoothSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.1%
Davon Booth run for 9 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
2.2%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Mario CraverSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
1.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 9 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
1.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
1.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 17 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
1.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Kelby Collins and George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 32Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+10
1.6%
Van Buren Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Coleman Jr., Kevin, PENALTY FLA holding (Marshall Jr., Jason) 10 yards to the FLA22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MSST.Similar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
1.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 22Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
1.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the FLA 21Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+11
1.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 11 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
5.2%
Johnnie Daniels 10 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 1:4396% → 98%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
50
+5
3.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+9
3.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the MSST 36Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-3
2.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 39Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+10
2.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 10 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
2.2%
Trey Smack 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
15 plays · 74 yds · 2:271% → 1%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
1.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 6 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
0.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 9 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
1.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kelly AkharaiyiSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
0.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
0.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
1.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-10
1.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Aaron Chiles for a loss of 10 yards to the MSST 44Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+24
0.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 24 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
1.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+28
1.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 28 yds to the FLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
1.4%
Van Buren Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Walley, Jaden, PENALTY FLA pass interference 2 yards to the FLA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MSST.Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:38
Jordan Mosley 13 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
+15.3
TD · Q3 3:37
Graham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)
-11.9
TD · Q2 1:17
Ja'Kobi Jackson 10 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com