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TENN

Tennessee 51 at NC State 10

NCSU
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:44 · Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds , Squirrel White returns for 16 yds to the NCSU 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense−12.9Pregame prior−17.4Score differential−6.3Garbage-time factor−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:09: Dylan Sampson 9 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick) — TENN win probability +3.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:04: Kanoah Vinesett 24 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:33: Max Gilbert 32 Yd Field Goal — TENN win probability +3.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:29: Grayson McCall pass intercepted Will Brooks return for 85 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +8.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:27: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 15 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +6.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:11NCSU 4th & 17 at TENN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:32TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:19NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:06NCSU 4th & 17 at NCSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:04NCSU 4th & 3 at TENN 7, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:33TENN 4th & 5 at NCSU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:44NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00TENN 4th & 7 at NCSU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:11TENN 4th & 3 at NCSU 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:31TENN 4th & 5 at NCSU 17, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:45NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:20NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:06NCSU 4th & 19 at NCSU 16, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:50TENN 4th & 5 at NCSU 35, up 41
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:52NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 44, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 0:09TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:29TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:27TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:02TENN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:20NCSU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:07TENN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:22TENN Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
16 plays · 29 yds · 6:4421% → 24%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
21.3%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 29Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
21.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
22.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
22.4%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
22.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Dacari Collins for 6 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
23.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 4 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
23.3%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TENN 43Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-3
23.6%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 46Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+7
23.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Dacari Collins for 7 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
24.4%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-7
24.3%
Grayson McCall sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 46Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 17
OPP 46
0
24.1%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
23.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2876% → 75%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
24.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 18Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
24.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+12
24.5%
Nico Iamaleava run for 12 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
24.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
24.3%
Nico Iamaleava run for 3 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
24.5%
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
24.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
25.1%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0125% → 25%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
25.3%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 9Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
25.5%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 9
OWN 9
-4
25.2%
NC State Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-4 Yards) to the NCSU 5Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 13
OWN 5
+2
25.3%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the NCSU 7Similar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 11
OWN 7
0
25.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the TENN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:5674% → 78%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
25.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 10 yds to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
25.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 6 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+12
25.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 12 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
25.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 10 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
25.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for no gain to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-4
25.5%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 28Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+17
26.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 17 yds to the NCSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
25.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the NCSU 8Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+9
21.9%
Dylan Sampson 9 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:5423% → 23%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
23.4%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 21Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
23.2%
NC State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 16Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
23.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Noah Rogers for 7 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
23.0%
Grayson McCall sacked by Jakobe Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 18Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+11
22.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 58 yds , Squirrel White returns for 11 yds to the TENN 29 Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TENN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6INT
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:2176% → 78%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
23.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+16
23.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 16 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
22.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 14 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-29
22.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Bishop Fitzgerald return for 29 yds to the TENN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:2526% → 29%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
25.8%
Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Rickey Gibson III) to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
26.5%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+14
26.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for 14 yds to the TENN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
26.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the TENN 9Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
26.7%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+2
26.0%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
29.2%
Kanoah Vinesett 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:3172% → 78%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
27.7%
Tennessee Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TENN 20Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
28.0%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the TENN 21Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+45
27.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 45 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
25.1%
DeSean Bishop run for 15 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
24.9%
DeSean Bishop run for no gain to the NCSU 19Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
25.2%
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
25.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
22.5%
Max Gilbert 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9INT TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:5824% → 19%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
23.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 28 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
26.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 15 yds to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
27.3%
Hollywood Smothers run for 12 yds to the TENN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
27.5%
Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the TENN 16Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-85
18.9%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted Will Brooks return for 85 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3417% → 16%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
16.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 8Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+8
16.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the NCSU 16Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-1
16.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 15Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 3
OWN 15
+16
16.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds , Squirrel White returns for 16 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11END OF HALF
12 plays · 18 yds · 1:3085% → 89%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
14.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+8
14.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
14.5%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Holden Staes) to the NCSU 39Similar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 20
OPP 39
-1
14.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 40Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 21
OPP 40
+8
13.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 8 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+6
11.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+45
11.0%
Max Gilbert 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2887% → 95%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 4 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
13.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+22
13.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 22 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
12.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 13 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
11.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
11.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-1
11.5%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 26Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+7
12.3%
Nico Iamaleava run for 7 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
10.8%
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the NCSU 15Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
4.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 15 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:495% → 5%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
5.4%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 7Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+17
5.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Keenan Pili) to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
5.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for 14 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
5.3%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the NCSU 33Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-10
5.0%
NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSU 23Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 25
OWN 23
-1
4.9%
Grayson McCall sacked by Dominic Bailey for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 22 Grayson McCall fumbled, forced by Dominic Bailey, recovered by TENN Dominic Bailey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2996% → 98%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
3.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the NCSU 16Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+2
3.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-3
3.5%
Nico Iamaleava run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 17Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+36
2.1%
Max Gilbert 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
1.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 23Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
1.7%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
1.7%
Grayson McCall run for 11 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
1.5%
Grayson McCall run for no gain to the NCSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
1.0%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
1.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+31
0.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 31 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
1.2%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 24 Grayson McCall fumbled, recovered by TENN Jeremiah TelanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18INT TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
0.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the NCSU 22Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
0.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+8
0.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 8 yds to the NCSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-87
0.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Aydan White return for 87 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0299% → 100%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
0.9%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 39Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
0.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-5
0.9%
Tennessee Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the TENN 38Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+21
0.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 21 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
0.8%
Nico Iamaleava run for 7 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+34
0.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 34 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.4%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
0.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 29Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
0.3%
Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for no gain to the NCSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
0.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+8
0.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 8 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
0.2%
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
0.2%
DeSean Bishop run for no gain to the NCSU 18Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
0.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Holden Staes for 18 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.2%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 20Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 20Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-4
0.1%
CJ Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 16 CJ Bailey fumbled, recovered by NCSU CJ BaileySimilar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+31
0.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds , Squirrel White returns for 31 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
0.2%
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
0.2%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Peyton Lewis run for no gain to the NCSU 35Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+53
0.2%
Max Gilbert 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.1%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-1
0.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 33Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+11
0.1%
CJ Bailey run for 11 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the TENN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.1%
Khalifa Keith run for 2 yds to the TENN 26Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
0.1%
Khalifa Keith run for 1 yd to the TENN 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+2
0.1%
Khalifa Keith run for 2 yds to the TENN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:29
Grayson McCall pass intercepted Will Brooks return for 85 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q3 10:27
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 15 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q1 0:09
Dylan Sampson 9 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com