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NCSU

NC State 19 at Kansas State 28

KSU
2023 · Pop-Tarts Bowl · Dec 28, 2023 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:21 · Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds , Seth Porter returns for no gain to the KSU 16 Seth Porter fumbled, recovered by KSU Erik Pizarro Kansas State Penalty, Illegal Block (Jacob Parrish) to the KSU 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Home team on offense+1.6Pregame prior+10.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:29: DJ Giddens 4 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick) — KSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:22: Brennan Armstrong 31 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick) — NCSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:55: Avery Johnson 19 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick) — KSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:50: Trent Pennix 60 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NCSU win probability +17.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 2:48: Jayce Brown 11 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick) — KSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:35KSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:05KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:21NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:29KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:18NCSU 4th & 1 at KSU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−1.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:20KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 29, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:51NCSU 4th & 4 at KSU 31, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:50KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 47, up 8
    Close callPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:46NCSU 4th & 5 at KSU 34, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.5%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:53KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:50NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 40, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:29KSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 48, up 2
    Close callPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:03NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 29, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:20KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−4.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:12NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:15KSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 21, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−6.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−27.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:20KSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 14, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%−0.6
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:35KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:29KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:22NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:55KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:50NCSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:48KSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5962% → 63%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
62.4%
DJ Giddens run for 20 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
62.4%
DJ Giddens run for 13 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
62.5%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
62.6%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
62.6%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the NCSU 37Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+37
63.2%
DJ Giddens 37 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2937% → 36%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
63.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 15 yds to the NCSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
63.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 23Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
63.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
63.9%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Dylan McMahon) to the NCSU 19Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+4
64.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 4 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
64.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sterling Lockett at the KSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5865% → 65%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
64.7%
Keagan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 38Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
64.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
64.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Seth PorterSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
64.5%
Jack Blumer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2635% → 34%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
64.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 15 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
64.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the NCSU 30Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
65.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
65.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds , Seth Porter returns for no gain to the KSU 16 Seth Porter fumbled, recovered by KSU Erik Pizarro Kansas State Penalty, Illegal Block (Jacob Parrish) to the KSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3165% → 65%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
65.3%
DJ Giddens run for 10 yds to the KSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
65.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
65.7%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
65.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
65.0%
Jack Blumer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6DOWNS
13 plays · 64 yds · 6:4034% → 34%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
65.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 3 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-1
65.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 28Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+19
66.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 19 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
64.8%
Kevin Concepcion run for 9 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
64.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+8
64.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
64.9%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-2
64.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jacob Parrish and Chiddi Obiazor for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 33Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+14
65.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 14 yds to the KSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
64.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the KSU 14Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
64.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 2 yds to the KSU 12Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
65.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the KSU 10Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
66.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the KSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:1668% → 78%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
67.7%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 14Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+10
67.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 10 yds to the KSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.1%
Avery Johnson run for no gain to the KSU 24Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
68.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 5 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
67.8%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+30
67.3%
Jack Blumer run for 30 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
70.6%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q2 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.8%
DJ Giddens 4 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+28
77.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 28 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:5324% → 34%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
76.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
76.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
76.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
76.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 11 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
75.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
76.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+12
77.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 12 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
76.6%
Kevin Concepcion run for 8 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+31
66.3%
Brennan Armstrong 31 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:2071% → 83%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 7 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
72.3%
DJ Giddens run for 7 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
72.4%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
73.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+12
71.7%
Avery Johnson run for 12 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
73.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 10 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
74.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 4 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+11
74.1%
DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
74.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
82.5%
Avery Johnson 19 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10END OF HALF
13 plays · 57 yds · 0:4019% → 24%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
81.6%
Kansas State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jacob Parrish) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
50
-5
79.9%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 45Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+15
81.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 15 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
78.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
77.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 6 yds to the KSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
77.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 4 yds to the KSU 24Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+16
79.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 16 yds to the KSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
79.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
76.1%
Brayden Narveson 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:3923% → 26%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.5%
Kevin Concepcion pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+38
77.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 38 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
75.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
74.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+3
76.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+49
73.8%
Brayden Narveson 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4076% → 77%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.3%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 24Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
76.1%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
75.4%
Avery Johnson run for 12 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
78.1%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 36Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
76.7%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+11
76.2%
DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
77.0%
Jack Blumer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:5624% → 23%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
75.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the NCSU 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCSU Demarcus Jones II Demarcus Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 21Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
76.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 21Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+40
77.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 40 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
73.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
73.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
73.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
76.7%
Brayden Narveson 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3081% → 79%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
80.6%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 33Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
80.3%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
79.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
78.8%
Jack Blumer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4521% → 37%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.0%
Kevin Concepcion run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
78.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 29Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
79.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 7 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
78.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
79.9%
Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 38Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+2
81.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+60
63.5%
Trent Pennix 60 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:5365% → 65%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
64.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 22 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
68.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 5 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
68.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jadon JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
68.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
65.2%
Jack Blumer punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5737% → 35%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
62.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 4 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+4
62.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
62.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
65.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Seth Porter at the KSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1465% → 64%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
65.2%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 30Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+15
66.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Seth Porter for 15 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
69.8%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KSU 40Similar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
67.6%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+3
67.3%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
66.2%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
64.4%
Jack Blumer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0436% → 32%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
64.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
64.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the NCSU 21Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
66.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
67.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 41 yds , Seth Porter returns for no gain to the KSU 21 Kansas State Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the KSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
18 plays · 72 yds · 6:5567% → 95%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
67.4%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-5
67.2%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (KT Leveston) to the KSU 25Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
66.6%
La'James White run for no gain to the KSU 25Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+16
64.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 16 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
70.0%
Jadon Jackson run for 7 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
71.2%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-7
69.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 3 yds to the NCSU 49 Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KSU 41Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+18
71.5%
Avery Johnson run for 18 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
76.1%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
77.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
77.5%
NC State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
79.4%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the NCSU 22Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
79.4%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the NCSU 21Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
78.6%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+8
76.7%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the NCSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
80.9%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the NCSU 11Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
95.3%
Jayce Brown 11 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
94.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Jacob Parrish return for 3 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:0096% → 97%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
96.4%
DJ Giddens run for 20 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
96.6%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the NCSU 19Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
96.7%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+2
96.7%
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+8
96.3%
Avery Johnson run for 8 yds to the NCSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:50
Trent Pennix 60 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-17.9
TD · Q4 2:48
Jayce Brown 11 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)
+12.3
TD · Q2 3:22
Brennan Armstrong 31 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com