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GAST

Georgia State 45 at Utah State 22

USU
2023 · Famous Idaho Potato Bowl · Dec 23, 2023 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:10 · Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the GAST 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Pregame prior+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:57: Darren Grainger 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick) — GAST win probability +3.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:41: Davon Booth 65 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick) — USU win probability +4.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:15: Tailique Williams 27 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick) — GAST win probability +5.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:17: Cadarrius Thompson 23 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick) — GAST win probability +17.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:02: Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 37 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +10.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:10USU 4th & 2 at GAST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:24USU 4th & 6 at GAST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−5.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:30GAST 4th & 13 at USU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−5.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:37USU 4th & 2 at USU 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:45USU 4th & 8 at USU 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:58GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:28USU 4th & 15 at GAST 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:56USU 4th & 5 at GAST 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:12GAST 4th & 5 at USU 23, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:17USU 4th & 1 at USU 43, down 24
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:30GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 21, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:12USU 4th & 17 at USU 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:51USU 4th & 7 at GAST 49, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:36GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:15USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:57GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:41USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:15GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:17GAST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:02GAST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:18GAST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:48USU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:0955% → 55%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
55.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
55.1%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USU 29Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
55.1%
Levi Williams pass complete to Jalen Royals for 15 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
55.3%
Georgia State Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the GAST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
55.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Jalen Royals for 7 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
55.5%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+1
55.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 1 yd to the GAST 33Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+1
55.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the GAST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:1845% → 48%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
55.2%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 30Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-1
55.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Freddie Brock for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 29Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+16
55.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 16 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
54.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 8 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+15
54.8%
Darren Grainger run for 15 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
54.7%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-5
54.6%
Darren Grainger sacked by Jaiden Francois for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 33 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by GASTSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+15
54.9%
Utah State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
54.4%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+11
54.4%
Darren Grainger run for 11 yds to the USU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.6%
Darren Grainger 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)Similar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
52.1%
Georgia State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the GAST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:0553% → 57%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
50
+6
53.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Davon Booth for 6 yds to the GAST 44Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
53.4%
Levi Williams run for 2 yds to the GAST 42Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
53.3%
Levi Williams run for 7 yds to the GAST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
56.8%
Jalen Royals 35 Yd pass from Levi Williams (Elliott Nimrod Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0345% → 50%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
55.5%
Freddie Brock run for 60 yds to the USU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
54.2%
Freddie Brock run for 3 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+6
54.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 6 yds to the USU 6Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+5
54.4%
Darren Grainger run for 5 yds to the USU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.2%
Darren Grainger 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:1152% → 56%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.0%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+65
56.3%
Davon Booth 65 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2644% → 51%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
55.8%
Georgia State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the GAST 20Similar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
56.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Peter Kikwata for 10 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
55.6%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
55.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 4 yds to the GAST 41Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+32
54.3%
Darren Grainger run for 32 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
53.6%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the USU 25Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-10
53.6%
Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USU 35Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+8
54.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 8 yds to the USU 27Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+27
48.7%
Tailique Williams 27 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:4550% → 51%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.3%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
50.2%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 13 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
50.9%
Levi Williams run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
50
+11
51.7%
Levi Williams pass complete to Colby Bowman for 11 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
51.8%
Georgia State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the GAST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
52.6%
Levi Williams sacked by Javon Denis for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 26Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+3
52.4%
Levi Williams run for 3 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+3
51.9%
Levi Williams run for 3 yds to the GAST 20Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
50.9%
Elliott Nimrod 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:5551% → 54%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+58
49.0%
Freddie Brock run for 58 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
46.6%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the USU 21Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+8
46.2%
Darren Grainger run for 8 yds to the USU 13Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-8
46.3%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the USU 6 Georgia State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the USU 21Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+14
46.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Rykem Laney for 14 yds Rykem Laney fumbled, recovered by USUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:5249% → 49%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
48.6%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 8Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
48.5%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+14
47.8%
Levi Williams pass complete to Colby Bowman for 14 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-17
48.5%
Levi Williams pass intercepted Ronald Cooper return for 17 yds to the USU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10FG
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1056% → 58%
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
44.5%
Freddie Brock run for 3 yds to the USU 7Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
44.3%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the USU 3Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
42.3%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USU 8Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
42.4%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 0
OPP 8
-5
43.5%
Georgia State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USU 13Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
41.8%
Liam Rickman 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3343% → 42%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 8 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
43.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
43.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 42Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
43.0%
Levi Williams pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 1 yd to the USU 43Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
42.1%
Ryan Marks punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GAST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:4360% → 81%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
40.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 1 yd to the GAST 21Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
40.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
40.8%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GAST 16Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+20
41.0%
Darren Grainger run for 20 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
38.8%
Freddie Brock run for 12 yds to the GAST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
38.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 3 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-4
37.1%
Darren Grainger sacked by Clifton Mosley Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 47Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+14
37.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 14 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
35.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Freddie Brock for 16 yds to the USU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
18.9%
Cadarrius Thompson 23 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:2130% → 29%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Kyrese Rowan for 2 yds to the USU 27Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
29.5%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
29.0%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
28.9%
Ryan Marks punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GAST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3979% → 80%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
21.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 8 yds to the GAST 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-9
20.1%
Darren Grainger sacked by Paul Fitzgerald for a loss of 9 yards to the GAST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2276% → 76%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
24.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 6 yds to the GAST 16Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-5
24.0%
Georgia State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the GAST 11Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
24.6%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the GAST 13Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-6
24.1%
Darren Grainger sacked by Paul Fitzgerald for a loss of 6 yards to the GAST 7Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
24.3%
Kade Loggins punt for 43 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:1226% → 23%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
50
+16
25.9%
Levi Williams pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 16 yds to the GAST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
26.4%
Levi Williams run for no gain to the GAST 34Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
26.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-2
25.2%
Levi Williams sacked by Justin Abraham for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 34Similar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 10
OPP 34
-5
24.0%
Utah State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the GAST 39Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
23.0%
Ryan Marks punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0980% → 96%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
20.5%
Freddie Brock run for 3 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
20.0%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
18.3%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds to the GAST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
17.7%
Darren Grainger run for 8 yds to the GAST 42Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-7
16.4%
Darren Grainger sacked by Paul Fitzgerald for a loss of 7 yards to the GAST 35Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+27
17.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 27 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
15.3%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 39Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+2
14.3%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+37
4.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 37 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:347% → 7%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
6.9%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+18
6.7%
Levi Williams pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 18 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
6.9%
Levi Williams run for no gain to the GAST 45Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
6.6%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
6.9%
Levi Williams pass complete to Davon Booth for 5 yds to the GAST 40Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
6.6%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19MISSED FG
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:1897% → 97%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
3.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 32 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
3.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
2.9%
Freddie Brock run for 7 yds to the USU 21Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-2
2.7%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 23Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+42
3.2%
Liam Rickman 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:235% → 5%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
5.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 11 yds to the USU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
5.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
5.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
5.0%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 43Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
4.5%
Ryan Marks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacari Carter at the GAST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3097% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
2.9%
Freddie Brock run for 3 yds to the GAST 15Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+4
2.6%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the GAST 19Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+2
2.4%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the GAST 21Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+9
2.4%
Kade Loggins punt for 35 yds , Cooper Jones returns for 9 yds to the GAST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:124% → 3%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
3.6%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
3.5%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the GAST 43Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-11
3.4%
McCae Hillstead sacked by Jordan Veneziale for a loss of 11 yards to the USU 46Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 17
OWN 46
+25
3.0%
Ryan Marks punt for 30 yds, downed at the GAST 24 Utah State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the GAST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 2:3294% → 100%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
6.5%
Darren Grainger run for 5 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
2.5%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the GAST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
2.2%
Freddie Brock run for 11 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+43
1.9%
Freddie Brock run for 43 yds to the USU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.5%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:120% → 2%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+31
0.2%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 31 yds to the GAST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
0.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 5 yds to the GAST 35Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
0.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 4 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
0.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 1 yd to the GAST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
0.2%
McCae Hillstead run for 2 yds to the GAST 28Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
0.2%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the GAST 28Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+10
0.2%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 10 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.2%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
0.2%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 4 yds to the GAST 14Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+12
0.2%
Georgia State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the GAST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.5%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds for a TD (McCae Hillstead pass to Jalen Royals for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.1%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
1.0%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the GAST 49Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
1.0%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+6
1.0%
McCae Hillstead run for 6 yds to the GAST 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 49 yds · 3:3799% → 100%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
0.9%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the GAST 45Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
0.8%
Freddie Brock run for 12 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
0.6%
Freddie Brock run for 31 yds to the USU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
0.6%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the USU 8Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+1
0.5%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the USU 7Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-1
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:17
Cadarrius Thompson 23 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)
-17
TD · Q3 6:02
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 37 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q1 0:15
Tailique Williams 27 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com