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CSU

Colorado State 24 at Hawai'i 27

HAW
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:26 · Paddy Turner punt for 54 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior−9.8Home team on offense+2.8Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score differential+0.6Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:32: Chuuky Hines pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 26 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +8.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:24: Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +20.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:32: Matthew Shipley 35 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +7.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:54: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 70 yds for a TD (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass to Tory Horton for Two-Point Conversion) — CSU win probability +38.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +34.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:48HAW 4th & 10 at CSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:27CSU 4th & 5 at HAW 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−4.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:31CSU 4th & 8 at HAW 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:03HAW 4th & 2 at CSU 26, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%−1.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:30HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:26CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:48CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:48HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.4%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:32HAW 4th & 16 at CSU 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−6.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:24HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:27HAW 4th & 6 at CSU 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:54CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:22CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:08HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:32HAW Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:24HAW Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:05CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:54CSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    22.4%−3.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3870% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
29.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 8 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
29.8%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
29.8%
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
29.8%
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+21
29.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 21 yds to the HAW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
29.8%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+2
29.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 2 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+10
29.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the HAW 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
29.9%
Justin Marshall run for 21 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:3430% → 31%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.3%
Brayden Schager run for 6 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
30.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
30.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 11 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
30.5%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the HAW 48Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
30.5%
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 7
50
+7
30.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 7 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
30.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
30.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
30.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
30.5%
Matthew Shipley punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3INT
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:1070% → 70%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.4%
Louis Brown IV run for no gain to the CSU 20Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
30.4%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 21Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+46
30.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 46 yds to the HAW 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
29.7%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the HAW 32Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+9
29.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 9 yds to the HAW 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
29.7%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the HAW 21Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
29.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted, touchback. Elijah Palmer return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:3031% → 39%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
30.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 29 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
31.7%
Landon Sims run for 16 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
32.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 4 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-5
32.4%
Hawai'i Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DECAMBRA, Ka'ena enforced (-5 Yards) to the CSU 36Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
31.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+14
31.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 14 yds to the CSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
32.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 9 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
32.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+1
32.1%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the CSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
38.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5FG
18 plays · 70 yds · 5:3365% → 66%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.5%
Damian Henderson II run for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
34.9%
Damian Henderson II run for 7 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
34.8%
Damian Henderson II run for 4 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
34.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+15
36.1%
TURNER, Paddy punt 52 yards to the HAW6 out of bounds, clock 13:30. PENALTY HAW Personal Foul on PEIHOPA, Kuao enforced 15 yards from the CSU42 to the HAW43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
34.3%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the HAW 41Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
34.3%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the HAW 40Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+15
34.5%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROSS-SIMMONS, Justus thrown to the HAW1. PENALTY HAW Pass Interference on PALMER, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the HAW25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
33.6%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the HAW 22Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
33.6%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the HAW 18Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+6
34.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the HAW 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
33.6%
Hawai'i Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Smith) to the HAW 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
34.0%
Damian Henderson II run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 5Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
34.2%
Jordan Noyes 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5535% → 47%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
35.3%
SCHAGER, Brayden pass to the right complete for 3 yards to CORDERO, David caught at the HAW25 and advanced to the HAW28 (JOCK, Buom). PENALTY HAW Holding on VAIPULU, Solo enforced 10 yards from the HAW25 to the HAW15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
35.2%
David Cordero run for 15 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+36
35.6%
David Cordero run for 36 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
38.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 3 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
38.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 5 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+26
47.3%
Chuuky Hines pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 26 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:0155% → 50%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.9%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 25Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
44.1%
MARSHALL, Justin rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the CSU42 (MANUMA, Peter). PENALTY CSU Holding on HOLKER, Dallin enforced 10 yards from the CSU34 to the CSU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
46.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 15 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.4%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 39Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
43.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+14
43.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 14 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
42.2%
MARSHALL, Justin rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the HAW39 (SMITH, Jalen). PENALTY CSU Holding on CANNON, Drew enforced 10 yards from the HAW40 to the CSU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 20
50
+6
43.4%
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the HAW 44Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
43.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+6
51.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 6 yds to the HAW 38Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
50.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:2851% → 53%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
51.2%
Brayden Schager run for 9 yds to the HAW 47Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+19
52.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 19 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
53.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 7 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+1
53.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 1 yd fumbled, forced by Dominic Morris, recovered by HAW Pofele Ashlock [NHSG] SCHAGER, Brayden pass short to the right complete for 1 yard to ASHLOCK, Pofele, ASHLOCK, Pofele fumbled at CSU26 forced by MORRIS, Dominic, recovered by HAW ASHLOCK, Pofele at the CSU26, returned 0 yards to the CSU26, End of Play.Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
54.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+43
53.1%
Matthew Shipley 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
54.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden at CSU24 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3049% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to David Cordero for 2 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
49.4%
David Cordero run for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
47.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
48.0%
Matthew Shipley punt for 39 yds, downed at the CSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0451% → 48%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.9%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 35Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
49.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for no gain to the CSU 35Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
50.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:0251% → 74%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
50.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 7 yds to the HAW 22Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-10
51.1%
CORDERO, David rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards to the HAW39 (WILSON, Chase). PENALTY HAW Holding on TANUVASA, Eliki enforced 10 yards from the HAW22 to the HAW12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+14
50.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 14 yds to the HAW 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
51.0%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+41
50.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 41 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
54.8%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+16
54.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 16 yds to the CSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
54.8%
David Cordero run for 1 yd to the CSU 11Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
54.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
53.5%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the CSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
74.2%
Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3630% → 28%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for no gain to the CSU 25Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
72.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 57 yds, downed at the HAW 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14FG
19 plays · 74 yds · 8:1674% → 91%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
73.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
73.5%
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the HAW 11Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+10
72.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 10 yds to the HAW 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
74.0%
Hawai'i Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eliki Tanuvasa) to the HAW 11Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+21
73.6%
Brayden Schager run for 21 yds to the HAW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
74.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 5 yds to the HAW 37Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-6
74.9%
Brayden Schager sacked by Nuer Gatkuoth and Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 31Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+10
72.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 10 yds to the HAW 41Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+6
73.3%
Dalen Morris run for 6 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
75.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 7 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+15
75.8%
Colorado State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
75.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
75.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 14 yds to the CSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
84.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 8 yds to the CSU 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-15
84.4%
QB Keeper SCHAGER, Brayden rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU4 (HARDGE III, Ron;BLACKBURN, Henry). PENALTY HAW Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MOKIAO-ATIMALALA, Tamatoa enforced 15 yards from the CSU3 to the CSU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 17
OPP 18
+1
84.0%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the CSU 17Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 16
OPP 17
0
83.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+35
90.5%
Matthew Shipley 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:2013% → 23%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
87.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 7 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+7
85.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 7 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
85.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
85.1%
Damian Henderson II run for 4 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
84.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 12 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
84.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 6 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+13
83.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 13 yds to the HAW 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
76.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4185% → 86%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 3 yds to the HAW 28Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
85.1%
David Cordero run for 1 yd to the HAW 29Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
84.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
86.0%
Matthew Shipley punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17Uncategorized
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:5917% → 15%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
83.2%
Justin Marshall run for 11 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
81.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 1
50
+10
79.3%
Justin Marshall run for 10 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
79.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
79.9%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass to the right incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory broken up by SINCLAIR, Justin at the HAW34. PENALTY CSU Holding on CANNON, Drew enforced 10 yards from the HAW40 to the CSU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 20
50
+13
83.5%
Justin Marshall run for 13 yds to the HAW 37Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+1
83.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 1 yd to the HAW 36Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 6
OPP 36
-53
84.9%
NOYES, Jordan field goal attempt from 53 yards NO GOOD (short middle) [kick was spotted at HAW43], End of Play, clock 04:25. PENALTY HAW Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMITH, Jalen CSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on AGURS, Kenyon , Offsetting penalties [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:5896% → 97%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
96.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 11 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
96.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 21 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
97.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 7 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-2
97.7%
Landon Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 27Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-1
97.6%
Landon Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 28Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
97.3%
Matthew Shipley 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:3310% → 47%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
89.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Andrew Choi for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 23Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+5
90.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 5 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+2
91.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 2 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+70
53.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 70 yds for a TD (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass to Tory Horton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:5457% → 96%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.0%
Brayden Schager run for 11 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
59.2%
Landon Sims run for 12 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
63.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 7 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
64.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+11
62.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 11 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+51
96.4%
Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:54
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 70 yds for a TD (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass to Tory Horton for Two-Point Conversion)
-38.2
FG · Q4 0:00
Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG GOOD
+34
TD · Q3 8:24
Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+20.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com