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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:49 · Brayden Schager pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:58: Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 89 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +0.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:57: Harrison Waylee run for 28 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +6.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:56: Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 40 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:35: Ayir Asante run for 6 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:59: Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WYO win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 11:11HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it18.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q1 3:03HAW 4th & 2 at WYO 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.3%48% to convertField goal15.7%−0.694% to makePunt13.1%−3.2average punt
- Q2 14:10WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 24, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it84.2%−1.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.6%average punt
- Q2 12:39HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 20, down 14Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it15.0%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:00HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q3 12:51HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 41, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 8:37HAW 4th & 13 at WYO 13, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call0.8%85% to makePunt0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 7:15WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 30, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q4 12:14WYO 4th & 12 at HAW 28, up 26Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%60% to makePunt98.9%−0.6average punt
- Q4 11:33HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 32, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 9:37WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 37, up 26Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:49HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 27, down 26Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 4:51WYO 4th & 1 at HAW 18, up 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%71% to convertField goal99.6%−0.279% to makePunt99.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 2:55HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 33, down 33Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:45WYO 4th & 4 at HAW 13, up 33Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.146% to convertField goal99.9%85% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6HAW made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 14:00WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:58WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:57WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:56WYO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:35WYO Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:59HAW Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:51WYO Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1TD3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0082% → 82%
HAWDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4919% → 19%
WYODrive 3TD1 play · 89 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
82.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 89 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4DOWNS14 plays · 73 yds · 7:5518% → 16%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 9 yds to the HAW 34Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
82.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+9
82.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Solo Vaipulu for 9 yds to the WYO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:5385% → 85%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-9
85.4%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Ezra Evaimalo for a loss of 9 yards to the WYO 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3115% → 15%
Q2 14:10
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+10
84.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 10 yds to the HAW 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:4286% → 93%
HAWDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:578% → 8%
Q2 9:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
91.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 7 yds to the HAW 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9TD4 plays · 66 yds · 2:0493% → 97%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
93.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 13 yds to the WYO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
50
+10
93.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 10 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
97.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 40 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10INT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:112% → 2%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 8 yds to the HAW 33Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
97.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 6 yds to the HAW 34Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
97.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 9 yds to the HAW 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-26
98.2%
Brayden Schager pass intercepted Jakorey Hawkins return for 26 yds to the HAW 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11TD3 plays · 39 yds · 1:1098% → 98%
HAWDrive 12INT6 plays · 67 yds · 1:311% → 1%
WYODrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 16 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
HAWDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:091% → 1%
WYODrive 15FUMBLE1 play · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
99.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 8 yds Treyton Welch fumbled, recovered by HAW Justin Sinclair [SG] PEASLEY, Andrew pass short to the right complete for 8 yards to WELCH, Treyton caught at the WYO27, WELCH, Treyton fumbled at WYO34 forced by SINCLAIR, Justin, recovered by HAW SINCLAIR, Justin at the WYO34, returned 9 yards to the WYO25 (WIELAND, Wyatt;SINCLAIR, Justin), clock 12:40.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16FG7 plays · 12 yds · 4:031% → 1%
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
98.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 3 yds to the WYO 16Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
98.9%
Brayden Schager sacked by Shae Suiaunoa and Easton Gibbs for a loss of 15 yards to the WYO 21Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+8
99.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to David Cordero for 8 yds to the WYO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
HAWDrive 18TD13 plays · 71 yds · 6:161% → 0%
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
99.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Solo Vaipulu for 11 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to David Cordero for 2 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+12
99.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 12 yds to the WYO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+19
98.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 19 yds to the WYO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+9
98.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to David Cordero for 9 yds to the WYO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+19
99.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19MISSED FG8 plays · 47 yds · 3:4599% → 100%
HAWDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:410% → 0%
WYODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
HAWDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 15 yds · 2:480% → 0%
WYODrive 23TD5 plays · 27 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24DOWNS5 plays · 4 yds · 1:560% → 0%
WYODrive 25DOWNS5 plays · 15 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
HAWDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 33 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:57
Harrison Waylee run for 28 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 5:56
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 40 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q3 0:59
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+1.1