2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by BUTTERFIELD, Jay at SJS20 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:16: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:38: Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 13 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down — HAW win probability +9.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 24 — SJSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:15: Kairee Robinson run for 52 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 9SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 13:55SJSU 4th & 14 at HAW 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snapGo for it73.0%−0.116% to convertField goalTheir call73.2%84% to makePunt72.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:47HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snapGo for it28.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.4%average punt
- Q1 2:11HAW 4th & 8 at SJSU 42, down 7Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snapGo for it28.3%34% to convertField goal27.9%−0.430% to makePuntTheir call28.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:26HAW 4th & 12 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snapGo for it27.8%−0.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.4%average punt
- Q2 3:03HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snapGo for it20.1%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q3 13:50SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snapGo for it90.0%−1.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.1%average punt
- Q3 12:26HAW 4th & 18 at HAW 8, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it9.6%−1.511% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.1%average punt
- Q3 12:15HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 35, down 28Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.2%average punt
- Q3 5:39SJSU 4th & 10 at HAW 29, up 28Close callWent for it · 97.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.8%−0.129% to convertField goal97.8%58% to makePunt97.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 3:43SJSU 4th & 1 at HAW 4, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%65% to convertField goal97.9%−0.293% to makePunt97.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:52HAW 4th & 21 at HAW 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q4 11:56SJSU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 28Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:22HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 42, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 6:45HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 34, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 4:07SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:16SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.9%97% to makeGo for two77.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38SJSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:15SJSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:45SJSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1MISSED FG5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0276% → 75%
Q1 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
24.3%
Chevan Cordeiro run for a loss of 3 yards to the HAW 14 Chevan Cordeiro fumbled, recovered by SJSU Chevan Cordeiro [NH] QB Keeper CORDEIRO, Chevan rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, CORDEIRO, Chevan fumbled at HAW11 , recovered by SJS CORDEIRO, Chevan at the HAW14, returned 0 yards to the HAW14, End of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 3:0825% → 26%
SJSUDrive 3TD12 plays · 93 yds · 6:4074% → 75%
Q1 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+15
26.5%
Hawai'i Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SJSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+18
26.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 18 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
25.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the HAW 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5626% → 26%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
26.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 21 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 49 yds · 2:0574% → 75%
Q1 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+9
26.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 9 yds to the SJSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+32
25.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 32 yds Quali Conley fumbled, recovered by HAW Virdel Edwards II [NH] CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left complete for 32 yards to CONLEY, Quali caught at the SJS25, CONLEY, Quali fumbled at SJS45 forced by TUFAGA, Isaiah, recovered by HAW EDWARDS, Virdel at the HAW38, returned 0 yards to the HAW38, End of Play, clock 00:06.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3427% → 26%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
27.7%
SCHAGER, Brayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MCBRIDE, Steven thrown to the SJS2. PENALTY HAW Holding on TANUVASA, Eliki enforced 10 yards from the SJS48 to the HAW42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+8
26.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
50
0
26.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD15 plays · 86 yds · 8:1074% → 82%
Q2 13:26
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+8
25.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
25.1%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Jonah Kahahawai-Welch for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSU 34Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+7
26.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 7 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+29
25.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 29 yds to the HAW 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+12
24.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 12 yds to the HAW 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
17.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1315% → 15%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.0%
SCHAGER, Brayden pass to the right complete for 7 yards to MCBRIDE, Steven caught at the HAW31 and advanced to the HAW32 (COLE, Jay'Vion). PENALTY SJS Offsides on LAVULO, Noah enforced 5 yards from the HAW25 to the HAW30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-7
15.3%
Brayden Schager sacked by Kenyon Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the HAW 23Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
14.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 8 yds to the HAW 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD11 plays · 70 yds · 2:2582% → 93%
Q2 3:03
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+21
19.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 21 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
15.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 44Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+35
15.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 35 yds to the HAW 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10Uncategorized3 plays · 19 yds · 0:3817% → 15%
SJSUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2411% → 10%
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-10
10.9%
Brayden Schager sacked by Tre Smith and Soane Toia for a loss of 10 yards to the HAW 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13TD1 play · 52 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14INT10 plays · 44 yds · 4:343% → 3%
Q3 12:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
3.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 9 yds to the HAW 29Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
3.3%
SIMS, Landon rush to the left for no gain to the HAW39 (REED, Kenyon). PENALTY HAW Holding on ATKINS, Joshua enforced 10 yards from the HAW39 to the HAW29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+1
3.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Solo Vaipulu for 1 yd to the HAW 30Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+5
3.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 5 yds to the HAW 35Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+32
3.0%
Matthew Shipley run for 17 yds to the SJSU 48 for a 1ST down San José State Penalty, Personal Foul (Kejuan Bullard Jr.) to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
3.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 2 yds to the SJSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15DOWNS11 plays · 44 yds · 3:5898% → 99%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
2.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 20 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 5
OPP 24
-5
1.7%
San José State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Isaac Jernagin) to the HAW 29Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+16
1.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 16 yds to the HAW 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 3:511% → 1%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
1.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 11 yds to the HAW 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 4
OWN 22
-3
1.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for a loss of 3 yards to the HAW 19Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+11
1.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 11 yds to the HAW 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
1.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Solo Vaipulu for 4 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
1.2%
Hawai'i Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brayden Schager) to the HAW 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 34
-4
0.8%
Brayden Schager sacked by Soane Toia for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5699% → 100%
HAWDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
0.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 21 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 24 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20INT11 plays · 26 yds · 3:480% → 0%
Q4 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+6
0.1%
Jake Farrell pass complete to Alex Perry for 6 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.2%
Jake Farrell pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 4 yds to the SJSU 49Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
0.1%
San José State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tre Jenkins) to the SJSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER5 plays · 8 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by BUTTERFIELD, Jay at SJS20 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:38
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 13 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down
+9.7
TD · Q3 12:15
Kairee Robinson run for 52 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q2 0:38
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
-6.7