Try the model
SDSU

San Diego State 41 at Hawai'i 34

HAW
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:10 · punt blocked by blocked by
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 4Pregame prior−17.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:30: Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +12.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 0:00: Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 52 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +24.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:33: Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 69 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +23.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:27: Lucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick) — SDSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:59: Matthew Shipley 47 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +12.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 6SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:10HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:12SDSU 4th & 2 at HAW 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:42HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:37SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:32HAW 4th & 15 at HAW 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:43HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 45, down 10
    Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:06SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 21, up 10
    Close callPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:59SDSU 4th & 15 at HAW 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:47SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.9
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.2%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:21SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:34HAW 4th & 2 at SDSU 29, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%−2.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−9.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:56SDSU 4th & 7 at HAW 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−14.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:39SDSU 4th & 1 at HAW 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−1.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:16SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:25SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:49HAW Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:30HAW Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:00HAW Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:33SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:27SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5032% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 5 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
32.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
32.5%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5868% → 67%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
32.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the HAW 8Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
32.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for no gain to the HAW 8Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+3
32.4%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the HAW 5Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
33.0%
Jack Browning 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2233% → 34%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
33.2%
Landon Sims run for no gain to the HAW 32Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
33.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the HAW 39Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
33.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
33.6%
Matthew Shipley punt for 36 yds, downed at the SDSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0566% → 66%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 5 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
33.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
33.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 1 yd to the SDSU 33Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
34.4%
Jack Browning punt for 63 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0534% → 34%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
34.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for a loss of 5 yards to the HAW 3Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 15
OWN 3
0
34.0%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 15
OWN 3
0
33.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 15
OWN 3
0
33.6%
Matthew Shipley punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:1666% → 69%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
33.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the HAW 42Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
33.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Leo Kemp for 8 yds to the HAW 34Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
33.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the HAW 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
33.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 30 yds to the HAW 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
33.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the HAW 1Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3332% → 30%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 7 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
31.9%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the HAW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
31.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 8 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
30.8%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for no gain to the HAW 45Similar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
30.4%
Matthew Shipley punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:0569% → 69%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
31.2%
Martin Blake run for 1 yd to the SDSU 21Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
31.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 1 yd to the SDSU 22Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
31.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 12 yds to the SDSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
30.6%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
30.8%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSU 36Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
30.7%
Jalen Mayden pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9INT TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:1331% → 26%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
30.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 2 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
30.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+12
30.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 12 yds to the SDSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-70
25.5%
Deshawn McCuin 70 Yd Interception Return (Jack Browning Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 4:3024% → 30%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
23.6%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 11 yds to the HAW 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
24.0%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 5 yds to the HAW 25Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
24.0%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
23.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 9 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
24.1%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 8 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+6
24.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 6 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
25.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 27 yds to the SDSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
25.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the SDSU 24Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
25.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the SDSU 17Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+17
29.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 17 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3771% → 71%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
28.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
28.9%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the SDSU 18Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+3
29.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the SDSU 21Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
29.4%
Jack Browning punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the HAW 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12MISSED FG
6 plays · 10 yds · 3:0773% → 73%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
26.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 15 yds to the HAW 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
25.2%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the HAW 26Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-3
25.2%
Cam Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the HAW 29Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-4
25.8%
Jalen Mayden run for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 33 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by SDSU Ross Ulugalu-MaseuliSimilar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+50
27.4%
Jack Browning 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:2927% → 42%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+62
27.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 62 yds to the SDSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
30.0%
Landon Sims run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 8Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
42.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4364% → 63%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 4 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
35.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 4 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
35.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
36.8%
Jack Browning punt for 66 yds, downed at the HAW 1Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
36.6%
SCHAGER, Brayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ASHLOCK, Pofele thrown to the SDS50. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on MALONE, Dez enforced 15 yards to the HAW16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:4738% → 37%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
37.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
37.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+12
36.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 12 yds to the HAW 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
37.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the HAW 37Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
40.0%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
39.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
37.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3963% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
37.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 11 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
36.3%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
36.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
37.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
39.3%
Jack Browning punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Steven McBride at the HAW 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:4738% → 50%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+28
38.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 28 yds to the HAW 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
39.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 9 yds to the HAW 44Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
42.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 4 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
42.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
41.7%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+10
42.0%
Brayden Schager run for 10 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
42.7%
Brayden Schager run for 9 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 1
OPP 28
-1
43.9%
Brayden Schager sacked by Ryan Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 29Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
42.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
49.7%
Matthew Shipley 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 7:3855% → 63%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
44.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 13 yds to the SDSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
42.1%
Lucky Sutton run for no gain to the SDSU 41Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
42.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 8 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
41.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the HAW 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
40.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 4 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
40.8%
Cam Davis run for 7 yds to the HAW 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
39.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+21
39.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 21 yds to the HAW 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
39.3%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the HAW 8Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
39.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 3 yds to the HAW 5Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
40.8%
Jalen Mayden run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 7Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
37.4%
Jack Browning 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5641% → 68%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 6 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
43.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 17 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
67.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 52 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 1:1839% → 62%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
61.5%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the SDSU 26Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
61.4%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+69
38.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 69 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:1741% → 41%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for a loss of 1 yard fumbled, forced by Zyrus Fiaseu, recovered by SDSU Keion MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:4968% → 84%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
32.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+20
32.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 20 yds to the HAW 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
32.3%
MAYDEN, Jalen pass short to the right incomplete intended for SHAW, Mekhi thrown to the HAW0. PENALTY HAW Offsides on HO'OHULI, Wynden enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the HAW4 to the HAW2 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.7%
Lucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 2:0517% → 18%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
17.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 65 yds to the SDSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
22.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 9 yds to the SDSU 1Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.9%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:3687% → 91%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+25
13.5%
Cam Davis run for 25 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
12.3%
MAYDEN, Jalen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BROOKS, Baylin thrown to the HAW30. PENALTY HAW Offsides on KEMA, Noah SDS Pass Interference on BROOKS, Baylin , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
12.3%
Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+16
12.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 16 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
12.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the HAW 35Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
11.7%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the HAW 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
12.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 4 yds to the HAW 26Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+2
11.7%
Martin Blake run for 2 yds to the HAW 24Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
11.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the HAW 21Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
9.4%
Jalen Mayden run for no gain to the HAW 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3210% → 10%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
10.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
9.6%
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the HAW 23 Landon Sims fumbled, recovered by SDSU Ryan HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:5692% → 94%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
8.5%
Martin Blake run for 11 yds to the HAW 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
8.4%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the HAW 10Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
8.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 6 yds to the HAW 4Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
8.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the HAW 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:127% → 23%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 7 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
7.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for no gain to the HAW 32Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
7.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 17 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
8.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 21 yds to the SDSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
10.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+47
23.1%
Matthew Shipley 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5295% → 96%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
4.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 9 yds to the HAW 34Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
4.4%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the HAW 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
3.8%
Kneel down by MAYDEN, Jalen at HAW32 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 52 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+24.2
TD · Q4 13:33
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 69 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
-23.4
TD · Q4 12:27
Lucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick)
-16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com