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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:29 · Jose Pizano 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:45: Courtney Reese run for 4 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +10.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:45: Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 51 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +9.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:17: Courtney Reese run for 21 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +11.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:47: Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 38 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +11.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:18: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +10.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 7HAW made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 14:14UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it77.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.1%average punt
- Q1 11:33HAW 4th & 17 at HAW 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.3%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.5%average punt
- Q1 7:53HAW 4th & 30 at HAW 5, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snapGo for it21.9%−0.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.4%average punt
- Q1 6:15UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 49, up 7Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.6%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:24HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt22.4%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:54HAW 4th & 3 at UNLV 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.5%53% to convertField goal22.9%−0.738% to makePunt22.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 13:27UNLV 4th & 8 at HAW 34, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snapGo for it77.4%34% to convertField goalTheir call77.3%−<0.147% to makePunt77.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:00HAW 4th & 10 at UNLV 16, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snapGo for it20.7%−0.727% to convertField goalTheir call21.4%81% to makePunt18.0%−3.4average punt
- Q2 4:56UNLV 4th & 3 at HAW 9, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snapGo for it78.5%48% to convertField goalTheir call78.0%−0.589% to makePunt74.1%−4.4average punt
- Q2 0:00HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 37, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it9.4%−1.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q3 13:11HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 37, down 17Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 11:53UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 18, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it88.2%−2.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.5%average punt
- Q3 10:04UNLV 4th & 1 at HAW 34, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.3%71% to convertField goal80.6%−2.747% to makePunt79.9%−3.4average punt
- Q3 5:07HAW 4th & 6 at UNLV 16, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.538% to convertField goalTheir call7.1%81% to makePunt1.1%−6.0average punt
- Q4 14:29UNLV 4th & 12 at HAW 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snapGo for it92.7%−0.923% to convertField goalTheir call93.6%56% to makePunt92.5%−1.1average punt
- Q4 5:57HAW 4th & 20 at HAW 15, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:04UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.1%97% to makeGo for two77.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:45UNLV Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:45HAW Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.5%97% to makeGo for two16.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:17UNLV Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.2%97% to makeGo for two90.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:47HAW Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.6%97% to makeGo for two11.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:18UNLV Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 5:37UNLV Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3573% → 73%
Q1 14:14
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
73.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Steven McBride at the HAW 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 1 yds · 2:3227% → 27%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
73.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 8 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-10
72.8%
Brayden Schager sacked by Johnathan Baldwin for a loss of 10 yards to the HAW 32Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
72.9%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Schager,Brayden pass incomplete deep right to Ashlock,Pofele PENALTY UNLV Holding declined UNLV Holding (Elad,Jett) 10 yards from Hawaii32 to Hawaii42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
72.9%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jett Elad) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
72.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 2 yds to the HAW 44Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
72.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 4 yds to the HAW 40Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 12
OWN 40
-5
72.7%
PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Atkins,Joshua) 5 yards from Hawaii40 to Hawaii35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 17
OWN 35
+9
72.8%
Matthew Shipley punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 34 , Jacob De Jesus returns for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD5 plays · 66 yds · 2:1873% → 74%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+32
72.6%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 32 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
72.9%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 12 yds to the HAW 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
74.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Vincent Davis Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -20 yds · 1:0426% → 26%
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
73.8%
Brayden Schager sacked by Marsel McDuffie for a loss of 8 yards to the HAW 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3075% → 74%
Q1 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
74.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Steven McBride at the HAW 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6DOWNS13 plays · 52 yds · 6:1126% → 26%
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
74.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 7 yds to the HAW 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
74.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 1 yd to the HAW 30Similar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
73.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 13 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
74.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 7 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FG6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1876% → 76%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
75.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 11 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Personal Foul (Meki Pei) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
75.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 11 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Personal Foul (Meki Pei) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8FG9 plays · 59 yds · 1:2024% → 25%
UNLVDrive 9FG15 plays · 66 yds · 6:5476% → 80%
Q2 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
75.7%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass complete short right to De Jesus,Jacob for 5 yards to the UNLV35 (Pei,Meki), out of bounds PENALTY UNLV Holding (Thomas,Jai'Den) 10 yards from UNLV30 to UNLV20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+9
76.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 19 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominic Gicinto) to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+28
78.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 28 yds to the HAW 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10FUMBLE8 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 4:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
79.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 8 yds to the HAW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
79.3%
Brayden Schager sacked by Darius Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the HAW 28Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+5
80.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 5 yds to the HAW 33Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-3
80.4%
Brayden Schager sacked by Zavier Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the HAW 30 Hawai'i Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cam Stone) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD4 plays · 30 yds · 4:1180% → 91%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
80.2%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 10 yds to the HAW 20 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Jonah Kahahawai-Welch) to the HAW 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
80.2%
Hawai'i Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the HAW 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 4:5612% → 9%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 7 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
86.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds to the HAW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+3
91.0%
Matthew Shipley punt for 36 yds , DeAngelo Irvin Jr. returns for 3 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4213% → 12%
UNLVDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1889% → 89%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
88.5%
Shotgun Davis,Vincent rush left for 13 yards gain to the UNLV36 (Tufaga,Isaiah; King,Devyn) PENALTY UNLV Holding (Hasz,Jack) 10 yards from UNLV23 to UNLV13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+5
88.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 5 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 15
OWN 18
+25
88.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HAW 49 , Steven McBride returns for 25 yds to the HAW 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15TD1 play · 51 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
79.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 51 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2881% → 93%
Q3 10:04
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+13
81.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Courtney Reese for 13 yds to the HAW 21 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cam Stone) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FG7 plays · 64 yds · 3:0410% → 14%
UNLVDrive 18FG14 plays · 45 yds · 5:3888% → 97%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+7
89.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 7 yds to the HAW 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+2
93.8%
Jacob De Jesus run for 2 yds to the HAW 31 Jacob De Jesus fumbled, recovered by HAW Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-5
93.6%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Hasz,Jack) 5 yards from Hawaii31 to Hawaii36. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:355% → 18%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
94.2%
UNLV Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Marsel McDuffie) to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
94.1%
Shotgun Schager,Brayden sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UNLV50 (Dixon,Jalen) PENALTY UNLV Holding (Turner,Jaxen) 10 yards from UNLV48 to UNLV38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
82.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 38 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD12 plays · 80 yds · 4:2587% → 99%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
86.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+34
87.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 34 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
88.3%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (St. John,Jalen) 5 yards from Hawaii29 to Hawaii34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+6
87.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the HAW 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21PUNT6 plays · -10 yds · 2:214% → 3%
Q4 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
96.3%
Brayden Schager sacked by Ose Egbase for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 30Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-15
96.6%
Shotgun Schager,Brayden pass complete deep middle to Ashlock,Pofele for 58 yards to the UNLV12 (Anderson,Thomas) PENALTY Hawaii Pass Interference (Perry,Alex) 15 yards from Hawaii30 to Hawaii15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22TD3 plays · 50 yds · 0:2099% → 100%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.1%
PENALTY Hawaii Face Mask (Ho'ohuli,Wynden) 15 yards from Hawaii37 to Hawaii22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23INT10 plays · 74 yds · 4:101% → 1%
Q4 5:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
99.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 10 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+15
99.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 15 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 5 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24END OF GAME4 plays · 10 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:17
Courtney Reese run for 21 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q4 12:47
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 38 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q2 0:45
Courtney Reese run for 4 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)
+10.4